From CNNMoney.com:

“How ugly are the state budget problems?

Nasty enough that traders are betting that two big U.S. states, California and Illinois, are just as apt to default on their bonds as Portugal — and almost as likely as Iraq…

The going rates in the CDS market say traders believe there is an equal chance — about 1-in-4 — that California, Illinois, Portgual or Iraq will default on their obligations within five years.”