Communities preparing for possible property tax reductions in Florida

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With the possibility that Florida residents will soon vote to significantly lower property taxes, communities in the states are trying to get ready:

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The proposal is spurring urgent responses from local governments faced with the prospect of plummeting tax revenue. Cities and counties are scrambling to prepare for a potential overhaul of how they pay for all sorts of services, from policing to pothole repairs.

Local officials across the state say the issue is dominating discussion in commission meetings and budget workshops. Among the measures they have taken so far: freezing hiring and capital projects, planning possible service cuts and floating proposals to increase other fees and taxes to offset the shortfall…

In the 2027-28 fiscal year, the Florida changes would reduce property-tax revenue in the state overall by nearly $5 billion, according to the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, a research arm of the legislature. That would increase to $8.8 billion in 2028-29 and $10.8 billion in 2030-31.

The amounts would vary widely for individual counties, with a large one like Miami-Dade projected to lose $304 million in the first year and a small one like Okeechobee expected to lose $3.7 million, according to an analysis by the Florida Association of Counties. Suburban counties with high proportions of homestead properties would face the sharpest exposure, and economically distressed small counties would be the least equipped to respond, the study said.

Americans generally do not like the idea of high property taxes. They like the idea of homeownership but do not always like the idea they should pay more taxes on something they own.

At the same time, this tax helps fund many of the local amenities and services Americans benefit from and participate in. When looking at amenities about communities when making choices about where to live or when discussing local features and amenities they like, property taxes likely contribute. This includes schools, parks, and police and fire departments.

The tradeoffs I wonder if Americans are willing to make: either or both (1) lower levels of local amenities and services and (2) less local control over local services and amenities for lower property taxes. Immediate financial benefits for property owners but a loss of quality of life? How this plays out in Florida might help

Suburban reasons for the prevalence and expenses of youth sports

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Here are some thoughts about how the suburbanization of the United States might be related to two concerns I have read/seen/heard multiple times in recent years: (1) most kids sports activity takes place in structured leagues and programs with a big rise in travel sports and (2) participation in these structured sports is expensive. There are lots of explanations for this but few take into account the setting where a majority of Americans live and how this has shaped these patterns. Are the sports opportunities kids get connected to suburban lifestyles?

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  1. Sprawling suburban landscapes can make it hard for kids to get together and just play. On one hand, suburban yards would seem to provide ample opportunities. And there are parks and school grounds scattered across suburbs. But much of suburban life requires driving and until kids have licenses, they need other people to drive them. Put this together with fears for safety in suburbia (see Neighborhood of Fear by historian Kyle Riismandel for how this happened) and kids don’t get together to play sports with each other outside. In how many suburbs today could the baseball team depicted in The Sandlot play regularly and where would those games take place?
  2. Suburbs suggest a certain social class standing and suburban households desire that their kids are successful or get ahead. Instead of playing sports for fun and to develop as a person, sports are a possible pathway to success and fame. Partaking of these sports options provides room to share about kids’ successes. And plenty of suburban households have disposable income to make this happen. Why play around when you can pay for travel sports and lessons and camps and equipment? This reminded me of Richard Reeves’ book Dream Hoarders where the top 20% of American earners look to secure advantages for themselves and their kids.
  3. Local governments and private companies are willing to provide these sports opportunities. They can claim this is what residents and customers want. And there is money to generate or be made from people willing to pay. As the trust Americans have in more traditional institutions have decreased, suburbanites are willing to invest time and money in sports leagues and programs where they might feel they have more control over outcomes. And why not rep a local team or club rather than wade into national polarization?

Another way to put this: could the United States have such a system of youth sports if it was not a suburban country?

Prediction of 25 years until median American house worth $1 million

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A recent projection looked at how much American homes will be worth in a few decades:

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The median U.S. home price will likely hit $1 million around the year 2050, when the millennial generation is hitting the traditional age of retirement, a top housing economist has predicted.

“Essentially, in about 25 years the national median home price will be a million dollars,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said at a conference in Washington, DC, on Tuesday. “It may be hard to envision that, but back in 1990, the national median price was $90,000.”…

Last month, the national median sales price for existing homes was nearly $430,000. Yun used multiple scenarios to project home prices out into the future, and says each scenario pointed to roughly the same timeline to hit $1 million: about 25 years.

This makes sense over time as inflation continues. Compared to the past, houses and many other goods are more expensive.

But three factors might make this hard to swallow for a number of people:

  1. How much will incomes and wages keep up with the price increase of houses? Will housing be further out of reach by 2050? A million dollar price for a home will be easier for people to understand if pay keeps up with those values.
  2. There will be people in housing who remember the lower prices of the past and a good number who will benefit from them. Those who owned homes in 2026 will recall the median at $430k and wonder – and enjoy, if selling – the new median of $1 million. Just as those who lived in the early Levittowns saw their homes increase in value over the decades, so will those who bought homes in the early 2000s.
  3. Some places will have much higher median home values in 2050 compared to others. While this is true today, that gap may grow and highlight differences between metropolitan regions.

I wonder if the biggest consequence of this continued rise in home values will be that houses in the United States will be regarded first and foremost as investments. If the median value can double in 25 years just by owning it, this can shape who owns homes and how they treat them.

The Chicago area Deep Tunnel system worked in the most recent rains?

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The Chicago area was hit last week by numerous storms that dumped inches of rain. In a metropolitan area, where does all this rain water go? The Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago described what happened in an email yesterday:

As the Chicago area grew on the shore of Lake Michigan and inland across swamps, prairie, and forests, where would all the water go? Urban development and suburban sprawl tends to flatten landscapes, eliminating natural settings that help drain water. Humans can adjust, adding retention ponds and drainage flows and permeable surfaces and setting aside some land to be open or “natural.”

The results are cited above. Multiple storms lead to inches of rain. The ground was soaked and storm sewers were full. The water has to go somewhere. Some of it ends up in a former quarry with over 7 billion gallons of water. Drivers who passed over the watery quarry posted pictures on social media. It also ends up in other reservoirs and in local waterways.

For the residents of the region, this hopefully led to fewer flooded streets and basements. (Though I saw plenty of pictures of this as well.) All that engineering and money hopefully drained the water away from everyday human activity. Water may be a precious resource but too much water can disturb metropolitan activity so the engineering and water mitigation efforts will continue.

The motorized vehicles that make American parades possible

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Numerous American communities held parades for July 4th. These parades are full of cars and motorized vehicles: they tow floats, they accompany walkers, and cars and vehicles (old and new) are on display.

Cars have dominated the American landscape for roughly a century. Before this, the United States had roads and animals and people could carry things along those roads. Parades happened prior to cars but it is hard to imagine parades today without motorized vehicles traveling the route. Yes, there are people involved that attendees may want to see but driving is essential to make the parade happen.

Take a recent parade I participated in. Most of the members of the group walked. We carried a banner in the front with the name of our organization and members of the group walked behind it. But we also had a truck with this that included large signs about the organizations, supplies, and a few people.

There were multiple vehicles in front of us in the parade. July 4th parades often feature local emergency vehicles; in our case, big fire trucks honked their way along. As shown above, there was a group with antique cars and trucks. Behind us, several sports cars inched forward, revving their engines while traveling at 3 mph. The vehicles themselves may symbolize American freedoms.

Or I recall the 2016 parade for the World Series winning Chicago Cubs. That event brought millions to Chicago. Could the players have walked through the city streets instead of taking a series of busses along the route? (Such busses are a common approach for championship parades.)

Marches and parades without vehicles can still happen. But in a country full of driving, cars and vehicles are part of and enable many processions.

Archival cataloguing that revealed a rare first print of the Declaration of Independence

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A volunteer in Britain made an exciting find last year that was just revealed:

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Michael Scurr has been volunteering at Britain’s National Archives for the last 11 years, spending his Thursday mornings painstakingly cataloging documents for the benefit of future researchers.

Then one day last May the retired insurance executive made a discovery of his own while sifting through the letters of an 18th-century Royal Navy captain.

There, attached to a report on the capture of the American privateer Dalton on Christmas Eve 1776, was an enclosure identified only as “another paper.” Carefully unfolding the document, Scurr stopped when he saw the word “Declaration” printed across the top…

Researchers at the National Archives have since identified the document as a rare early copy of America’s founding document, printed just days after the original was signed on July 4, 1776, to spread the news that 13 rebellious North American colonies had severed ties with Britain.

It is one of just 11 original copies of the so-called Exeter printing of the declaration that are known to exist, and the only one identified outside the United States, the National Archives said on Thursday as it unveiled the find ahead of this weekend’s 250th anniversary of American independence. This version was printed in Exeter, New Hampshire, July 16 to 19, 1776.

I have benefited greatly from researching in several archives. Materials are catalogued at various levels of detail, perhaps just having a title on a box or folders that point to a theme or a person or a time period. And even with more detail, it is still fun – and sometimes dull – to go through what is available to see what is really there.

I cannot imagine what it would feel like to discover such a rare document. I use another example of an unexpected find in teaching about doing archival research. Such finds can help clarify historical narratives or reveal new narratives. With this find last year in England, I imagine it can help us better understand how news of the Declaration spread. With revolutionary activity before the document was signed and announced as well as after, how did the news spread and what exactly did that lead to? The date of July 4th may seem obvious now but it would have taken days for people to learn what had happened and respond.

Increase in US life expectancy driven by younger adults

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If you have a summary measure of a group – say, life expectancy – the number could be affected by different subsets of that group. As experts discuss how the life expectancy of people in the United States is going up, they note what is driving the increase:

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New mortality data from the federal government suggests that life expectancy probably hit another record high in 2025, as death rates have continued to fall since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic…

The top causes of death in the US in 2025 followed longstanding patterns: Heart disease led with nearly 695,000 deaths, followed by cancer with nearly 623,000 deaths.

Unintentional injuries, which includes drug overdoses, were the third leading cause of death. Overdose deaths are still high — about 70,000 people died from an overdose in 2025, preliminary CDC data shows — but experts say that sharp declines probably played a large role in bringing the age-adjusted death rate down in the US.

“Life expectancy is going to be affected a lot by what’s happening at younger age groups more than at older age groups,” said Mark Mather, an associate vice president at the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit focused on using demographic data to help improve well-being. “As we see a dramatic decline in drug overdose among younger adults, that will have a more measurable impact on life expectancy at older ages and the overall life expectancy of the population.” ​

Increasing life expectancy could involve all sorts of policies and interventions. It could involve caring for older people and the particular medical concerns they face. Helping people live better lives in their sixties and beyond is worthwhile.

Addressing the health of young people is also worthwhile. Working towards lowering infant mortality and considering other concerns before and after birth can help people live longer. Caring for children and youth can help provide them more opportunities.

Both of these approaches – helping older and younger Americans – could statistically help increase life expectancy. But as noted above, helping younger people live longer can help move the needle further as fewer deaths at younger ages mean more people will live longer. In this particular case, whatever has been done to help further a decline in drug overdoses (it would be interesting to hear more about how this was accomplished) means life expectancy, a measure for the whole population, can increase even more.

Survey 3,000 Americans and develop a list of 100 “most passive aggressive roads”?

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Several roads in the Chicago area were named this week as being among the most passive aggressive roads in the United States:

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Naperville’s Ogden Avenue may be a daily driving staple for many Naperville residents, but it also comes with its challenges. A very unspoken challenge to be exact.

According to a survey from Sacramento-based company American River Wellness, it’s considered to be one of the most passive aggressive roads in the country, coming in at spot No. 88 out of 100, and among the top three in Illinois.

North Avenue in Chicago took the No. 10 spot on the national list followed by Green Bay Road in the North Shore suburbs at No. 11. Ventura Boulevard in Los Angeles ranked No. 1 in the survey, followed by U.S. 1/Federal Highway in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, at No. 2 and Central Avenue (Yonkers to White Plains Corridor) in Westchester County, New York, at No. 3.

How did this list come about?

The organization surveyed 3,011 drivers in May to identify the roads and routes most likely to cause passive-aggressive driving behavior, including tailgating, blocking merges, brake-checking and excessive honking.

Here is what American River Wellness said about their methodology:

Methodology: This study surveyed 3,011 U.S. drivers in May 2026 to identify the roads and routes most likely to cause passive-aggressive driving behavior, including tailgating, blocking merges, brake-checking, and excessive honking. Respondents were selected from a geographically representative online panel, balanced by age, gender, and region. To ensure data quality, responses underwent screening measures including bot detection, geo-verification, speeding checks, and manual review. Results were weighted to reflect national population benchmarks.

For a survey of Americans, having over 3,000 people is a good number (if a good sample is obtained). But there are lots of roads in the United States in lots of places. For example, there are over 300 metropolitan areas in the United States. More people live in the larger metropolitan areas – the most populous 11 have over 5,000,000 people in their metro area – so it could be easier to find people from these places. Some states have fewer metro areas and smaller ones.

I would want to know (1) how many people were surveyed from each geographic location (metro areas? states? other communities?) and then (2) how many roads were people asked about or asked to refer to?

Take North Avenue in Chicago which in at #10. By population of the Chicago metro area, residents account for roughly 2.5-3% of the US population as a whole. So if the survey was weighted by population, we might expect 90 respondents from the Chicago area. How many of them in the region can comment on North Avenue which traverses one part of the city? As a resident of the Chicago area, I have been on North Avenue in the city at least a few times. It would take a lot more work for me to link those experiences to the passive aggressive driving behaviors. I am much more familiar with Ogden Avenue in Naperville but would not have thought about passive aggressive driving there unless prompted. (See earlier posts about Ogden Avenue here and here. Imagine this then for smaller cities and communities. How many were surveyed? How many roads were they asked about or they experienced?

I wonder if there would be other ways to get at passive aggressive driving across all American roads. Satellite images of situations that lead to passive aggressive driving? Cell phone data of locations? Local policy decisions intended to limit traffic and congestion issues on certain roadways?

Suburban farmers markets as “multi-purpose civic events”

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The farmers markets of the Chicago suburbs could be described this way:

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More and more suburbs are embracing farmers markets in ways that go beyond the sale of produce. They have evolved into multi-purpose civic events — a proving ground for small businesses, a way for communities to advertise their services, a showcase for local musical talent, a source of food for area pantries and a draw for local eateries and shops.

Three thoughts in response:

  1. How much of this is due to the relative lack of civic and public spaces in American suburbs? If people wanted to gather in suburbs, how attractive or available are non-private or non-commercial spaces? These farmers markets provide settings for people to shop, eat, and gather. Such spaces are lacking in the suburbs.
  2. The weather has something to do with this. People want to be out in warmer weather. Fresh produce is available at this time of year. What would be the equivalent of this from November through March? Could there be a cold weather version of this in Chicago suburbs?
  3. Economic development is a consideration here. People spend money at farmers markets. They also may spend more in the surrounding area, turning a farmers market visit into an additional trip to a store or restaurant. For suburbs with downtowns, a centrally located farmers market can add to what local officials often hope is a vibrant and walkable downtown.

There are numerous suburban farmers markets in the Chicago region so it will be interesting to see which thrive and what kinds of civic relationships and initiatives they might lead to.

The different aspects of American suburban living through the eyes of European World Cup fans

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An article about reactions of Europeans to the American suburbs circles around a definition of suburbs or suburban life. Perhaps it is about space or being wealthy:

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“It’s spacious,” he said. “You go here for your shopping, and there for your dentist. People are so rich here. I think that’s why they can be so nice.”

Maybe it is about space and fast food:

In recent days, social media has been filled with videos of Europeans gawking at the staples of suburban American life—a two-car garage, a walk-in closet, a second refrigerator. One Brit went viral for trying Chick-fil-A for the first time: “That was absolutely banging,” he said. In another, he toured the inside of an American fire station, marveling at the size of the trucks and the station itself. “This is nuts, honestly,” he said. 

Or is it about portions at American restaurants?

Variations in portion size have become an established part of any discussion of cultural difference. One 2024 study showed that American portion sizes are 42% larger than those in France. A large McDonald’s drink in the U.S. holds almost twice as much—30 ounces—as a large in France or the U.K.

No, it is about consumerism and big box stores:

Some Dutch fans in Kansas City were impressed—but confused—by the scale of U.S. consumerism. Dutch fan Max Hall and his friend didn’t know why there needed to be two Home Depots within a 10-mile radius. When they entered a Walmart in search of new clothes (they lost their luggage in transit), they wound up spending a whole hour in the store, lost in the aisles. Fellow Dutch fans Mike Tol and Demi Tol struggled to navigate Costco.

I have written about the seven reasons Americans love suburbs and a few show up in this story. American single-family home are big. Driving and a middle-class life are linked to homes, shopping, and eating out.

This article discuses cultural differences between the United States and Europe and uses the suburbs as a a stand-in for American culture more broadly. A majority of Americans live in suburbs and millions of Americans are familiar with the lifestyle described in the article. The stadium in Kansas City is within the big city’s boundaries but is in a more sprawling area.

The descriptions above reference a particular American lifestyle. It may be found in the suburbs. It may also be found in cities and rural areas. It hints at things Americans experience everyday and may not think much about about. (Just as one example, see this post about the wonders of Walmart.)

And as the article notes, it may be one thing to briefly see what daily American life could be and another to think about choices societies have made and consider the tradeoffs. How easy is it for people to around the world to visit another place and then give up their life to move to that new place because they see something they want to experience? Or how many of the fans in the article go home and see their daily life in a new way? Seeing the American suburbs while on a trip for the World Cup may be one thing; how one responds could be a very different thing.