According to one firm, the housing market in the United States will get worse soon:
According to Fiserv, a financial analytics company, home values are expected to fall another 3.6% by next June, pushing them to a new low of 35% below the peak reached in early 2006 and marking a triple dip in prices.
Several factors will be working against the housing market in the upcoming months, including an increase in foreclosure activity and sustained high unemployment, explained David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist…
The first post-bubble bottom was hit in 2009, when prices fell to 31% below peak. The First-Time Homebuyer Credit helped perk prices up by mid-2010, but by the time the credit expired, prices fell again.
In the second dip, which was reached last winter, prices were down 33% before staging a mild rally that was artificially spurred as banks slowed the processing of foreclosures following the robo-signing scandal, which found that loan servicers were rapidly signing foreclosures without properly vetting them.
This is a long term issue for the country to address and it’s hard to imagine that recent political rhetoric on the matter will help.
What could be particularly interesting in this whole affair is how the drop in values or a slight recovery will differ by region. While we have already experienced this, we could be in for long-term disparities where certain metropolitan regions like Washington D.C. which has risen to the top of rankings of wealth are in stark contrast to older Rust Belt places (like Youngstown) and also newer depressed places (like Las Vegas). One size fits all housing policies are likely not enough to help everyone.