Even though spring is often the time when the housing market picks up, inventory is still down as we approach March:

But a return to healthy inventory levels could take years. Many homeowners can’t afford to sell because they don’t have enough equity to put into buying another house — or would have to write a check to sell. The supply of distressed houses for sale is thinning as the foreclosure crisis recedes, especially in some states. Home building, while improving, is still at low levels. And, after years of holding on, few homeowners want to sell when prices are just coming off the bottom, Realtors say.

“We’re making a painful transition from a market dominated by distressed sellers to a market in which the only people selling are people who want to sell,” says Glenn Kelman, CEO of online brokerage Redfin.

The nation now has a 4.2-month supply of existing homes for sale. A healthy market, defined as a six-month to seven-month supply, will arrive when home prices rise another 20%, estimates John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

A jump that size will lure enough sellers to match demand pouring in from renters and investors, he says. Rising prices will also drive more home building, he says…

Nationwide, almost 28% of homeowners with a home loan owe more on their loan than their home is worth, data from market watcher Zillow show. That’s 13.8 million homeowners. They’d likely have to write a check to sell, especially if they have to pay a Realtor.

In other words, a housing recovery will still take some time. Even with foreclosures easing, prices have not recovered to the point where more people want to or can sell.

One thing I like about this article: it doesn’t engage in speculation about when the market will be back to “normal.” Too often, real estate articles are full of people making predictions about when the tide will turn. Shouldn’t years of more uncertainty like the last few years make us at least a little more conscious about making such predictions? Also, we might be closer to recognizing that perhaps times like this might be “normal” for a while.

I wonder how much this data/information is related to lower levels of mobility in the United States…