Tag Archives: polls

Measuring Presidential popularity with merchandise

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There are traditional ways to measure Presidential popularity: polls that in some way measure approval or disapproval. Here is another possible way: sales of Presidential merchandise.

I’ve always wondered why Presidents or other political officials allow such merchandizing using their figures and words in order to make money. Perhaps it is simply publicity (even if it is in opposition to them). Or perhaps they don’t want to appear to be the politicians who cracks down on such things. Or perhaps by running for or entering public office, there is a tacit understanding that they are now in the public eye and can be used for money-making purposes.

And what does it mean culturally to reduce any politician to a piece of merchandise?

The difficulties of polling for primary elections

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Some polls about recent primary races in several states have been off. In a report from ABC, some of the difficulties in predicting primary elections are discussed:

Experts say this year’s primaries are highlighting some of the pitfalls of political polling.

“As a general rule, primaries are much harder to predict than general elections,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. “The hard part is figuring out who’s going to show up.”

Pollsters say developing a fundamental sense of who is going to vote is harder to do in primary elections when turnout is historically lower and more variable. There’s also the early and absentee voting factor.

This sounds like a sampling issue. Political polls tend to search for people who are likely to vote. But if a large percent of the sample that pollsters reach aren’t going to vote, the results are not very trustworthy.