A new survey reveals some controversy in how long Americans think Facebook will last:
Half of Americans think Facebook is a passing fad, according to the results of a new Associated Press-CNBC poll. And, in the run-up to the social network’s initial public offering of stock, half of Americans also say the social network’s expected asking price is too high…
The public overall is similarly divided on the company’s future. Just under half of adults (46 percent) predict a short timeline for Facebook, while 43 percent say it has staying power.
I’m not sure why we should think that average Americans should be experts on the value of Facebook’s IPO but the questions about the staying power of Facebook are pretty fascinating. I wonder what exactly it means that people call Facebook a fad: does that mean it is too popular (this could go along with the idea that Facebook is overvalued) or that it will someday disappear (maybe replaced, maybe simply fades away)? These are two very different options: Facebook’s membership numbers will probably level off at some point but that is very different than suggesting Facebook may not be around in ten years.
To me, these figures suggest several things:
1. The IPO could be a very important turning point for Facebook, perhaps akin of a transition from young adulthood to becoming a mature company. Will the company continue to grow or is this the beginning of the end (particularly in public perceptions)?
2. There is still room for Facebook to become more integrated into the daily life of people, particularly older Americans. Perhaps the number of users can’t increase all that much but the time one spends on Facebook can.
3. Facebook still needs to show a certain segment of the population that it is “worthwhile” and not just a “fad. “I’m not sure exactly what this would look like. It could include giving Facebook more functions so that more online activity, like shopping (though respondents to this survey are not very favorable about the idea of giving Facebook this data), takes place through Facebook. Or perhaps it includes convincing people that the social interaction on Facebook is now how normal social interaction takes place.
On the whole, this means that there is a lot for Facebook still to do.