It is hard to know how many jobs AI might eliminate when we cannot yet count many jobs eliminated:

Measurement doesn’t abolish injustice; it rarely even settles arguments. But the act of counting—of trying to see clearly, of committing the government to a shared set of facts—signals an intention to be fair, or at least to be caught trying. Over time, that intention matters. It’s one way a republic earns the right to be believed in.

The BLS remains a small miracle of civilization. It sends out detailed surveys to about 60,000 households and 120,000 businesses and government agencies every month, supplemented by qualitative research it uses to check and occasionally correct its findings. It deserves at least some credit for the scoreboard. America: 250 years without violent class warfare. And you have to appreciate the entertainment value of its minutiae. The BLS is how we know that, in 2024, 44,119 people worked in mobile food services (a.k.a. food trucks), up 907 percent since 2000; that nonveterinary pet care (grooming, training) employed 190,984 people, up 513 percent; and that the United States had almost 100,000 massage therapists, with five times the national concentration in Napa, California.

These and thousands of other BLS statistics describe a society that has grown more prosperous, and a workforce endlessly adaptive to change. But like all statistical bodies, the BLS has its limits. It’s excellent at revealing what has happened and only moderately useful at telling us what’s about to. The data can’t foresee recessions or pandemics—or the arrival of a technology that might do to the workforce what an asteroid did to the dinosaurs…

This was the point Goolsbee wanted to emphasize: Economists are constrained by numbers. And numerically speaking, nothing indicates that AI has had an impact on people’s jobs. “It’s just too early,” he said.

A lack of certainty should not be mistaken for a lack of concern.

This sounds like a classic issue facing those concerned about particular social problems: can the numbers help you build a case that this issue is important and worthy of the attention of others? With all the possible social problems that need attention, having clear data regarding the problem can help make the case to the public and leaders. But, if this is largely speculation regarding AI, how many will act based on that?

Another important factor regarding counting: it is a key way of trying to make sense of a large and complex society. When you have a country with over 330 million residents, 50 states, and numerous important social patterns occurring, having data to look at can help make sense of what is happening on the broad scale. Anecdotes offer little on a large scale; case studies might provide some insight. Having statistics on a society-wide scale is necessary.

A third way to think about this: those who could generate numerical predictions or have small sectors that could provide early data on this could be helpful for others.