Rise of luxury housing in the Sun Belt

South Florida and other Sun Belt locations are joining the upper ranks of places with luxury housing:

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Luxury homes in the South Florida metro sold for a median of $4.04 million in October, up 187.3% from a decade ago—more than double the national rise of 82.5%, and the fastest growth of any major metro…

Over the past five years, luxury prices in the metro rose 105%, the second-fastest increase among major U.S. metros and only slightly behind Miami. West Palm Beach has also been the nation’s fastest-growing luxury market for most of the past year, posting the highest annual price growth in nine of the past 12 months…

Eight of the 10 major metros with the fastest growth in luxury home prices since 2015 are in the Sun Belt, reflecting a broader, decade-long shift in where high-end homebuyers are choosing to put down roots.

Following West Palm Beach in the top five are Nashville (+171%), Phoenix (+165.7%), Las Vegas (+161%) and Miami (+148%).

The report cites two factors driving this luxury housing growth: changes related to COVID-19 and remote work plus changes in taxes in coastal states.

I wonder if several other factors are at play:

  1. More housing construction in Sun Belt locations than other places. For example, if there is more space available and/or fewer obstacles to building expensive housing in one place compared to another, it could help increase luxury housing.
  2. Certain scenes or communities are cool. Could some of this be about wanting to be in up-and-coming places? Are there certain amenities or quality of life options available in these Sun Belt locations that are harder to obtain elsewhere?
  3. Even with remote work, personal connections matter. Are certain companies and/or jobs located in the Sun Belt? Could this be about living near certain other wealthy people or particular social networks?
  4. Incentives offered by certain locations. We know communities and states give tax breaks to corporations. Are these options available to organizations connected to wealthy residents who then also move? Or are there any incentives for residential construction?

While these luxury housing shifts are underway, it does not sound like any of the traditional centers of the most expensive housing are disappearing soon – they are just not growing as much.

Research related to the size of houses and the happiness of residents

Does having a larger house lead to the residents being happier? A summary of some research related to this topic:

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On one side, living alone or with one other person can promote isolation or loneliness. On the other, excessive crowding (about 140 square feet per person, one study in Asia suggests) leads to stress, anxiety and depression. Happiness peaks somewhere in the middle, said Gerardo Leyva, an economist and researcher at Iberoamerican University in Mexico City.

Leyva analyzed data from tens of thousands of households in Mexico and Europe. He found that people living alone report the most satisfaction with their financial lives. But when it comes to overall happiness, the happiest households had about four to six people in them, regardless of home size.

This aligns with previous research: After crossing a minimum threshold of space for safety and comfort, every new bedroom or second floor yields less and less benefit. A brief spike in housing satisfaction from moving into “larger accommodations” produces no durable effects on overall life satisfaction. It may even erode it….

In his 2024 peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Public Economics, the assistant professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands found that just the presence of bulky domiciles down the street virtually erased any satisfaction people gained from moving into their own bigger homes. “Larger homes do not increase well-being per se,” Bellet wrote me. “What matters most is how close [the size of one’s house] is to the largest houses in the neighborhood.”…

A 2012 study by UCLA researchers found up to 60 percent of homes sit largely unused. Position-tracking data reveal that families — even in large homes — cluster in a few small high-traffic rooms, usually the dining, kitchen and family rooms. That means a 1,200-square-foot home with a central hub may outperform (from a happiness perspective) a 3,000-square-foot home with a fragmented layout.

It sounds like happiness and home size is connected to multiple factors: having a bare minimum space per person, the number of people in the space, how the residence’s home size compares to nearby residences, and how the interior space is used.

Each of these factors suggest that the absolute size of homes matters less than relative size. If new homes are about 2,400 square feet on average, the experience of that 2,400 square feet is affected by the number of people living there or what other housing in the neighborhood. In one setting, it might be too small. in another, it is large.

This might all fit with something I wrote about years ago: Americans have large houses, in part, to store lots of stuff. Don’t want to throw things away? Like to collect things? Have a series of hobbies or interests? That bigger house could have space for it. The additional space is not for people or social connection but for stuff.

If happiness and house size is related to other factors, how does happiness about house size rank compared to other life factors that affect happiness? For example, what is the difference in effect size on happiness between having satisfying social connections compared to house size?

McMansions are now just another established housing style in the United States

There are a number of established residential architectural styles in the United States. Victorian. Colonial. Ranch. Split-level. And the McMansion.

According to this Ngram viewer result, the term McMansion entered use in the late 1990s and then its use went up a lot between 2002 and 2011.

This roughly fits with what I found in my 2012 article on defining McMansions. The multi-faceted term described a newer wave of houses in a particular cultural moment.

What the Ngram above shows since 2011 matches what I have informally seen about McMansions since 2011: they are now just part of the landscape. They are not new. Americans build, sell, and buy them. They still are derided. There are dips up and down in the Ngram viewer but it has not changed much since 2011.

New residential styles will come in the future. Changes to society, the economy, housing, and preferences will lead to new designs that will then be assessed and critiqued. Perhaps they will bear some resemblance to McMansions, perhaps they go in completely different directions. The McMansion will live on among existing and new housing styles.

Upper middle class defined in part by living “in a more expensive neighborhood

How do you know if you are part of the upper middle class? A list of 8 signs includes this:

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You Live in a More Expensive Neighborhood

Another way to see if you’ve made it to the upper-middle class is to simply look at where you live. According to Rose, if “your home is in a ZIP code where folks want to live,” that’s a good sign that you’re there.

Keep in mind that it’s not all about appearances. People in the middle class might try to keep up with the Joneses — that is, they might compare themselves with their neighbors and try to match their level of wealth or status.

Those in the upper-middle class, however, do not. They don’t need to worry about whether their house is big enough or their car is luxurious enough. They can afford many of these high-end things without stretching their financial means.

Those in the upper middle class have the financial resources to live in places with higher housing prices. This means the houses may be bigger, the local amenities more plentiful, and the population more exclusive.

While the description above hints at this, why not just say that the upper middle class can afford a house that costs more? And how “expensive” is this neighborhood? In a typical metropolitan area, what percent of neighborhoods or communities are upper middle class, beyond the reach of the middle class or those around the median income and below the super wealthy enclaves?

How often then do those in the upper middle class use their community or neighborhood to signal their status? Just as a vehicle driven or a college attended or clothes worn or hobbies engaged in might signal class status, how much do they mention their community to highlight their status? If they say they live in “X,” is such a place widely known as being upper middle class?

Current owner of “The Brady Bunch” house says it is a “piece of art”

The owner of The Brady Bunch house, bought for $3.2 million in 2023, says it is art:

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Trahan told the Journal in 2023 that the house was “the worst investment ever,” but has since clarified those comments, telling People that she views the home as a piece of art.

“When I was buying it, I wasn’t thinking, ‘Oh, it was a great investment,'” Trahan told People in 2023. “When I buy art, it’s because I love the art. It’s not because, ‘Oh, I’m going to make money on this.’ If you’re going to make money in art, you have to sell it. I buy art, and then I don’t sell it.”

The first Brady Experience sweepstakes was such a success that Trahan is opening it up for another round. Trahan could not be reached for comment.

Can a home be art? Can a real suburban home that became part of a well-known TV show be art? This might require public and/or critical consensus.

The idea that a postwar suburban house could be a piece of art is not that farfetched. Imagine homeowners of such homes across the American landscape that lovingly take care of their homes, maintaining and improving them. Or preservationist efforts that protect particular homes for future generations. (Which postwar suburban homes might qualify for this is another discussion – which are more art and which are more pedestrian?)

Add to this the iconic nature of this home. For many, The Brady Bunch house represents suburban family life. The show only ran 5 seasons but the family and its home became a part of the postwar culture during its run, through syndication, and ongoing lore. I doubt many critics would say the show was art – it was a normal sitcom – but the iconic status of the show may elevate it in the eyes of viewers.

Perhaps the Brady home is pop art: a slice of a particular time that was revered by many.

Who suburban townhomes are intended for, Naperville edition

A new proposal to build townhouses in Naperville includes discussion who would live in these denser neighborhoods compared to single-family home subdivisions:

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Through the 1990s and early 2000s, there was so much single-family construction in Naperville that “I think there’s probably a little bit of a need to diversify housing product,” Whitaker said.

“I would say it’s not just townhomes, but I think you’ve also seen more senior housing, more apartments,” he said.

Whitaker also pointed to changing demographics in Naperville. It’s always been a great place to raise a family, but today, the population is aging, he said. “We’ve got a great supply of single-family homes in neighborhoods like Ashbury and Tall Grass in south Naperville, and frankly, it would be hard to … build new single-family homes at a price that is cost competitive to what exists in those communities,” Whitaker said. “And so I think the goal has been to diversify a little bit and find some different niches…

“The development will meet a significant community need by creating a housing opportunity that is suitable for many types of homebuyers,” the petition states, “including some of the fastest growing housing segments of our population, young professionals and empty nesters.”

As I noted yesterday, the primary way Naperville can grow in population in the future is to develop denser housing. Growth has been a key trait of the community for decades. But more and more townhouses is a change from single-family homes.

Additionally, these comments suggest townhouses in Naperville are aimed at particular residents. Specifically, townhouses could provide housing for seniors/empty nesters or young professionals. Might there be other homebuyers who could live in the townhouses?

Long-term, will more townhouses be palatable in the community if they are at particular price points and particular residents live there? There likely will be some pushback for townhouses regardless because of changes to character of the community and to the neighbors who own homes nearby.

The front door as the best indicator about a home that is for sale

What makes a home for sale more or less appealing? Two experts suggest this matters:

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Both our experts confirmed our suspicions. When it comes to your home’s exterior, the front door is the most important element for setting the tone.

“Think of your front door as your headline,” says real estate pro Charlie Lankston. “It’s one of the first details that draws the eye, and sets the stage for the story your home is about to tell.”…

“Far and away, the most important element is the front door of the home,” he says. “It is what every buyer sees first and with which they form their first impressions before even entering.”…

Along with indicating what potential buyers might find inside, Yee says your front door could also signal certain messages around the neighborhood.

Is this like how the eyes are supposedly the windows into the soul? When you enter a house, your eye is going to be drawn to the entryway so you will see the door. You may even have some time to inspect it closely walking up to it and through it.

But what exactly does it tell you? Some sense of the style of the rest of the home? Something about the upkeep? How much the door costs is going to say something about other upgrades?

I have also seen experts claim front doors have a high return on investment. Compared to other house projects, putting money into the door may be worthwhile.

I imagine there have to be at least some examples of an impressive front door leading to squalor elsewhere. Even if the front door is impactful, can it overcome other significant issues?

What would someone pay for the first American pope’s childhood suburban home?

The suburban home in which Pope Leo XIV grew up is for going to auction:

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Homer Glen-based home rehabber Pawel Radzik paid $66,000 last year for the modest, three-bedroom ranch-style brick house on 141st Place, and he gave it a major overhaul, saying last week that “80% of it is new — new flooring, new cabinets, new plumbing, new electrical, new kitchen.” He then listed the home in January for $219,000 before cutting his asking price to $205,000 later that month and then to $199,900 in February…

Upon the naming of the pontiff, Radzik immediately pulled the house from the market and told Elite Street at the time that he was looking into “what is the best option for me,” regarding the home, given its newly discovered provenance and heightened prominence.

Now, Radzik and his listing agent, Steve Budzik of iCandyRealty, have teamed up with auction house Paramount, with a June 18 auction date. The house has a reserve price of $250,000, meaning that Radzik has the right to reject any offers below that amount…

What a new owner would do with the home is unclear — perhaps turning it into a shrine to the new pope, or alternately restoring it to how it might have looked when the pontiff was a boy. No one disputes that the house has no real equal, as Prevost is the first American ever to become pope, and the 141st Place house is the only home Prevost ever lived in while growing up.

Three things strike me from this news:

  1. The house looks like a typical postwar suburban house in the Chicago area: modest in size by today’s standards and was in need of overhauling. And the community it is in has changed.
  2. This house is famous because of someone who once lived there. What happens to such suburban houses? There must be many such houses in the American suburbs – even though no other ones can claim to be the home to such a religious leader – given the number of Americans who have lived in suburbs over the decades.
  3. The increase in value is striking. Even before the announcement about the Pope, the home went from a purchase price of $66,000 last year to a sales price around $200,000 this year to a set minimum of $250,000 later this year. That a significant appreciation in housing value. Does this end up as a successful house flipping project?

I will be curious to see what the home sells for as it combines an aging yet rehabbed and more valuable home in the suburbs connected to a famous religious leader.

What businesses can operate out of single-family home zoning, tulip farm edition

A resident of the Chicago suburb of Barrington Hills has been told multiple times he cannot operate a “u-pick flower farm” from his property:

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“As advertised, your on-site, outdoor, retail business use of Property is strictly prohibited and must immediately cease,” the May 16 letter read. Small, at-home businesses are allowed under the village’s House Occupation Code. The catch is they must operate indoors.

Yamamoto has been appealing for about a year, hoping to work with the village to update the zoning code and allow for the farm. He even submitted three separate proposals. The first aimed to tweak the code so that residents can apply for special use permits for agrotourism. The second changed “agrotourism” to “agricultural experiences” and limited what could be sold and the number of people who were allowed on the property. The last proposed a change in the village’s definition of “agricultural activities” — which are already allowed — to include on-site sales…

“The Village’s Zoning Board of Appeals was particularly concerned that under these various proposals, similar outdoor commercial operations could be allowed to occur on every residential single-family property in the Village,” Paul wrote.

But Little Ducky still has support in the community. Several residents showed up to Yamamoto’s first proposal hearing in August 2024, and many more wrote letters. In all, 133 written comments were submitted, with 129 in support and four in opposition. Of those who spoke in person, 16 supported the farm, while three opposed it…

Yamamoto isn’t giving up. He’s already submitted two more applications and has been waiting for a response since February. In the meantime, he and his wife are picking and delivering tulips themselves.

Single-family home zoning in the United States generally exists to protect the housing value of residences. Businesses operated out of residential properties may threaten the calm, peaceful nature of neighborhoods.

The catch in this case seems to be that indoor businesses are allowed – imagine something involving a home office or a service that can be provided in a home – versus an outdoor operation. That outdoor business could create noise or be unsightly or disrupt the character of a single-family home neighborhood. Residents might be willing to put up with loud power equipment to keep their landscaping looking good (or not) but an outdoor business is a threat.

It will be interesting to see if support from local residents could shift the outcome. Could a one-time variation in the zoning be granted? Or the zoning guidelines changed to allow clearly-defined agricultural uses?

I found “giant white houses” in my study of suburban teardowns

What caused the construction of numerous “giant white houses” across the United States?

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Giant White Houses are white, with jet-black accents: the shutters, the gutters, the rooves. They are giant—Hulk houses—swollen to the very limits of the legally allowed property setback, and unnaturally tall. They feature a mishmash of architectural features, combining, say, the peaked roof of a farmhouse with squared-off sections reminiscent of city townhomes. They mix horizontal siding, vertical paneling, and painted brick willy-nilly…

After speaking to realtors, architects, critics, and the guy who built the house next door, I’ve learned that the answer is more complicated than I’d imagined. It has to do with Chip and Joanna Gaines, Zillow, the housing crunch, the slim margins of the spec-home industry, and the evolution of minimalism. It has to do, most of all, with what a certain class of homebuyer even believes a house to be—whether they realize it or not.

I found at least a few of these houses among the 349 teardowns I examined in suburban Naperville, Illinois. I did not classify them as such but they were among the many homes with prominent triangular gables (and usually multiple ones on the front facade). They sometimes had porches. The primarily white exterior is unique compared to teardowns that mix brick, stone, siding (vertical or horizontal), and shingles.

At least in Naperville, these homes emerged in a particular context: a wealthy built-out suburb that was in demand, numerous older and smaller single-family homes located near the vibrant suburban downtown, and local regulations that allowed relatively large teardowns.

How many years until this particular style is no longer built in large numbers and is perceived to be from a particular era? This happens with different residential home styles. This was not the predominant style in the teardowns I looked at between 2008-2017. Does this have an even shorter shelf life if it is linked to the reach of Chip and Joanna Gaines (and perhaps is more prominent in communities where people watch HGTV)?