How low prices might need to go for unwanted downtown office spaces

For those looking to transform American downtowns, the price of space currently zoned and intended for office space is still high:

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Investors who paid high prices for skyscrapers before the pandemic are reluctant to sell at a discount. Michael Pestronk, chief executive of Philadelphia-based apartment developer and landlord Post Brothers, said that around nine out of 10 office buildings around the U.S. that the company looks at aren’t suitable for converting to apartments, mostly because prices are too high or they still have too many tenants.

How low would prices need to go before redevelopment is attractive? How much money might previous investors be willing to accept or lose to convert structures?

There might need to be a tipping point for this to happen. Imagine a major office skyscraper is converted. Or, a certain amount of space is vacant in a single downtown. Or, a major lender accepts a loss and moves on with new plans. Or, a city decides to move with some major money. Or, one place shows this is possible.

That said, it will not only be expensive to pursue such paths but it will take time and experimentation. There may not be a single answer as cities seek different ways to fill office spaces.

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