Maybe this is a foregone conclusion to many, but this Financial Times article suggests 2011 is the year when China will exceed the manufacturing of the United States.

This would end a 110 year period when the US led world manufacturing. This “American Century” (plus 10 years) contained an impressive display of produced items: steel, early cars, to household appliances, to military weapons, airplanes, personal computers, and more.

Even with a global shift to an “information economy,” many countries would give a lot to have more manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing is not just about raw goods: it involves local communities who then contain factories and working classes. Places like Detroit are infamous for going from economic powerhouses to empty cities within four decades. Other cities, like New York and Chicago, have made the shift from manufacturing to other sectors, primarily finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE), within the same four decades.

From the article:

“Last year, the US created 19.9 per cent of world manufacturing output, compared with 18.6 per cent for China, with the US staying ahead despite a steep fall in factory production due to the global recession.

That the US is still top comes as a surprise, since in 2008 – before the slump of the past two years took hold – IHS predicted it would lose pole position in 2009.”

Interestingly, the return for China to the top adds to China’s long manufacturing edge before the modern era. Perhaps the “American Century” was just a blip on the screen of history:

“If China does become the world’s biggest manufacturer, it will be a return to the top slot for a nation which – according to economic historians – was the world’s leading country for goods production for more than 1,500 years up until the 1850s, when Britain took over for a brief spell, mainly due to the impetus of the industrial revolution.”