Author Archives: legallysociable

Under 15% of local voters could decide important suburban mayoral race

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The Chicago Tribune made its endorsement for mayor in Aurora, Illinois. This is not a small city or a recently-developed place; Aurora is the second largest community in Illinois with over 175,000 residents and it has nearly two centuries of history. The current mayor ran in the 2022 Republican primary for governor. Lots of people would be interested in voting, right?

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Or maybe not. Richard Irvin has been elected as mayor twice before, in 2017 and 2021. The first time he won with 5,838 votes out of 10,963 total votes. The second time he won with 6,697 out of 12,047 votes. The 2021 primary election had low turnout. In the 2021 mayoral election, turnout was under 13% for the Kane County portion of the city’s residents.

And this is not an isolated case; voter turnout in local elections in the Chicago region is often low.

All of this means that a relatively small portion of communities elect local officials. If turnout is under 15%, then a mayor can be elected by less than 10% of a suburb’s population. These elected officials then help make important decisions about local ordinances, land use, infrastructure, and more. They represent the community to residents and outsiders.

Does this low turnout in local elections help explain why it is difficult for mayors to make the jump to higher levels of government? They may be known in their communities – also think of Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana – but they do not necessarily need large voting blocs to support them and help them get into office. Running for higher offices, like Congress or governor, then requires amassing many more votes.

Seeing the relative decline of small Rust Belt cities by looking at the early years of the NBA

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On a recent trip, I found out that the Tri-Cities Blackhawks – based in Moline, Illinois for several years – were once a professional basketball team.

They played in Moline for 5 years before moving and becoming the Milwaukee Hawks (later the St. Louis Hawks and the Atlanta Hawks).

Having a team in Moline would not fit in the modern NBA where teams are located within the largest cities in the United States. Even at the start of pro basketball, many teams were in large cities. But, Moline was not alone in having an early pro basketball squad. Here are some of the other Rust Belt cities that had early teams:

-Providence

-Pittsburgh

-Fort Wayne

-Rochester

-Syracuse

-Anderson, Indiana

-Sheboygan, Wisconsin

-Waterloo, Iowa

What does it mean that all of these cities are out of the NBA within a few years? It could be part of a larger restructuring and expansion of professional sports around this period. More cities in the West and South gained teams. I recently read that the St. Louis Cardinals were the furthest south and west team in baseball for a long time; this is hard to remember when all pro leagues stretch coast to coast.

But it could also be partially due to the relative decline of the Rust Belt. These places that were once sizable and/or important places fell behind as other cities grew in population and status. Or the region itself, stretching from the middle of New York and Pennsylvania through the eastern Great Plains, fell on harder times.

Pro basketball may have started in small big cities in the Midwest but it did not stay there long as the sport and other places grew.

The brand “Articles of Society”

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On a recent shopping trip, I found a brand name I did not know. It sounds sociological. Apparently they make clothes.

From their Instagram page:

Live life in Articles inspired by you, created with the earth in mind• #articlesofsociety

Is this a play on the phrase “articles of clothing”? If so, where does society fit in? Is it a reference to how fashion is a negotiation between the individual and the society around them? Or is it meant to be more biting, referencing how we all are just a part of society?

Maybe I am missing the point. One goal of developing a brand is to stand out from other options. A consumer has lots of choices for clothes ranging across design, price, and availability. The brand name caught my attention so perhaps that is the point? I did not purchase the clothing but I did snap a picture and the brand name will live on in my head.

Can a movie that says something about suburbia be set in a place that is only sort of a suburb?

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The name of the new movie Holland refers to the community in west Michigan. Numerous reviews note that the film says something about the suburbs. A few examples: first, from Variety:

Through it all, Macfadyen seems suspiciously good-natured, which merely encourages us to guess what he might be hiding. The “Succession” star brings a disconcerting Kevin Spacey-like energy to his performance, which reinforces the connection some might detect between “Holland” and 1999’s “American Beauty” — another movie about the toxic black mold that thrives just beneath the veneer of suburban perfection.

Second, from Roger-Ebert.com.

Kidman does her best to be the MVP of “Holland,” imbuing Nancy with just enough Midwestern nicety to make her memorable. Nancy is the kind of woman who wants to be a perfect wife and mother but also wants some mystery in her life and responds to the attraction of the handsome new teacher at her school. She’s a suburban shark, always swimming to a nearly impossible objective of keeping her pristine reputation in the community, holding her family together, and having a fling with Dave. While she doesn’t make any bad choices, there’s a version of “Holland” that lets Kidman loose, turning the temperature up on this character’s emotions in a manner that Cave feels tentative to do.

Third, from Mashable.com:

Watching Kidman play a happy homemaker in a pretty suburban town might swiftly recall Frank Oz’s underrated 2004 comedy remake of The Stepford Wives, which Kidman starred in.

You get the idea: the setting and the plot add up o a film that seems to say something about the American suburbs. This is familiar ground in American movies (as well as novels, TV shows, songs, and other cultural works)

But is Holland, Michigan a suburb? Here is what Wikipedia says:

The city spans the Ottawa/Allegan county line, with 9.08 sq mi (23.52 km2) in Ottawa and the remaining 8.13 sq mi (21.06 km2) in Allegan. Holland is the largest city in both Ottawa and Allegan counties. The Ottawa County portion is part of the Grand Rapids metropolitan area, while the Allegan County portion anchors the Holland micropolitan statistical area, which is coextensive with Allegan County. The city is part of the larger Grand Rapids–Wyoming combined statistical area.

Since metropolitan areas have boundaries based on counties, it seems that part of the city is part of the suburbs of Grand Rapids, a city of nearly 200,000 people and a metropolitan area of over 1 million people. But a good portion of the city, home to over 37,000 residents, is also its own smaller urban area.

Do the people of Holland see themselves as suburbanites? How many commute to Grand Rapids and other parts of the region? Are there cultural and historical ties to Grand Rapids?

None of this may matter for putting together a film. Filming scenes in downtown Holland or within neighborhoods in the community may look suburban. How many people watching really want to have authentic places that match what is being described? (For example, once I have seen a few studio backlots, it is hard to unsee them.) If the movie is about the suburbs, who is to say it isn’t?

Illinois considering testing “road usage charge”

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If more vehicles now require less gas, Illinois is considering making up the funding lost through the gas tax through another means:

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Legislation proposed by state Sen. Ram Villivalam, D-Chicago, takes aim at that problem by creating a pilot program to explore the viability of establishing a “road usage charge,” essentially a tax on miles driven…

Under the current tax structure, vehicles that don’t rely on gasoline, such as electric vehicles, do not pay the gas tax that helps maintain state infrastructure, said Marc Poulos, executive director of Operating Engineers Local 150, which strongly supports the proposed legislation…

On Illinois toll roads , drivers pay approximately seven cents per mile, according to Poulos. With a mileage-based system, drivers could expect to pay three to four cents per mile. That would come on top of any tolls already being paid, similar to the gas tax.

Participants in the pilot would report their car’s fuel efficiency and mileage to the Illinois Department of Transportation. Roughly 1,000 motorists could sign up for the program with the Illinois Secretary of State’s office, Poulos said.

As the article goes on to note, more states and municipalities are looking for ways to recover revenues that come through the gas tax.

Given the current economic situation – many Americans feeling anxious about higher prices and less certain about their economic future – how might people in Illinois and elsewhere respond to these proposals? Americans generally like to drive and generally do not like the idea of new taxes. But if they are paying less at the pump, would they be willing to pay for driving through a different method?

More broadly, how much would Americans be willing to pay for driving? At what point do the costs of energy to drive (gas or electric) or the price of vehicles or tolls and congestion taxes push them too far? Or at what price do they switch to alternative forms of transportation or no transportation (making fewer trips)?

US population growth driven by immigration

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A new analysis suggest immigration fueled recent population growth in the United States:

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Immigration was the sole driver of the United States’ population growth in a single year for the first time since records began, a new study released Wednesday said…

The U.S. immigrant population grew by 1.6 million between 2022 and 2023 to 47.8 million, according to the MPI analysis, with immigrants now representing a 14.3 percent share of the overall population—the highest ever.

Three quick thoughts:

  1. Population growth is good in the United States. To have flat population growth or decline in population would be viewed with concern. This is a perception issue.
  2. The country has never experienced a decline in population between decennial censuses. It did not have growth under 7% in any decade (just over this during the 1930s and 2010s).
  3. How many systems and sectors in the country would be harmed if population growth and/or immigration slowed or stopped? What would keep going and what would not?

The McMansion size of human pride

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A recent Ash Wednesday poem starts with the imposition of ashes and then mentions a McMansion in this line:

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That burned down the McMansion of my hubris

I would guess this references one of the traits of McMansions: their size. A super-sized house is analogous to the level of pride humans can construct. Their pride puffs them up in their own eyes. They impress themselves, just as a McMansion through its size and dubious architecture, tries to do in impressing neighbors and people passing by.

But the idea of the poem then is that the McMansion of hubris is demolished by the ash-delivered reminder that “Remember that you are dust, and to dust you shall return.” Large amounts of pride and large McMansions too will be brought low. McMansions might live on longer than many humans but they too will not last forever.

What suburban leaders need from denser developments in their downtowns

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One suburban political candidate describes what the community hopes for when they build residences in the downtown:

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 “We need for people to be in it. We need for them to, do as our plan: get out of the building, walk around town, eat in the restaurants, drink in the coffee shops, drink in the bars, that kind of thing.”

Once a development is built, it takes time for the suburb to consider the impact on the community. If suburbs are going to pursue more density in their downtowns, which can often contrast with lower density homes throughout the rest of the community, they want certain things from the high-density development. They want those residents to patronize downtown businesses and restaurants. They want money to flow within the downtown. They want a particular downtown atmosphere where people are out and about (and not too noisy).

What happens if this does not come to fruition? What if the new development does not fill up quickly or if the residents do not spend much time downtown? Perhaps the municipality will seek a critical mass of downtown development to be able to provide enough downtown residents. Or perhaps they will seek the right mix of downtown attractions with certain kinds of shops and eateries.

And how much development will a suburb seek in its downtown? It might depend on whether it is “successful” in the eyes of the community.

Office buildings empty, residential property taxes go up

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What happens when the office buildings in Chicago’s Loop have more vacancies? Residents end up paying more in property taxes:

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The pandemic left the heart of the Loop with vacant offices and stores as workers and customers stayed home, and more people began working remotely. Then, citing the impact of that lost business, the owners of those vacant offices won huge tax breaks from Cook County officials.

The amount of property taxes didn’t get smaller because those taxpayers were now paying less. The taxes were still needed to pay for government services and salaries. So others have had to pay more to make up for that shortfall.

On top of that shift, City Hall and other government agencies have been asking property owners to pay more taxes overall, with total property taxes in Chicago rising from $6.8 billion five years ago to $8.3 billion last year.

That’s a 22% increase in taxes citywide in those five years.

This is one reason municipal officials like thriving commercial and industrial sectors: they contribute to the property tax base of a community. When these properties are worth less, someone else has to pick up the slack. Homeowners do not like rapidly increasing property taxes, if they like property taxes at all.

For residential property owners, the issue is compounded for some because the value of residences has jumped in recent years. With limited new supply and consistent demand for good housing, property values have gone up. Homeowners like this – until property taxes also increase because their home values have increased.

Will residential property owners put up with this and, even if they do not like it, what recourse do they have? Does this mean cities and communities need to put on a full-court press to get office buildings filled or converted?

Mapping Carnegie Libraries

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The Carnegie Corporation of New York has a map of the libraries Andrew Carnegie funded around the turn of the twentieth century:

I have not studied this beyond the map but I am intrigued that the map seems to show a lot of libraries between roughly western Pennsylvania through Nebraska. The Midwest has a lot of libraries, except for Missouri which seems to have fewer. There are some pockets of libraries elsewhere; northern California, the Northeast. But Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, and other midwestern states have a lot of libraries.

Why the Midwest? A few ideas come to mind:

  1. Its population is growing rapdily at this time. (Population growth in the South and West would come later and the East Coast already had established communities.)
  2. Did Carnegie’s life in Pittsburgh connect him to life in other midwestern locales or familiarize him with midwestern values?
  3. These communities valued civic institutions, like libraries.

If someone had come along in the 1960s and wanted to help fund civic buildings, how much different would the map look?