Tag Archives: population increase

Questioning Census population estimates when they show declines in Illinois

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A story on Census population estimates for Illinois’ communities includes some pushback against the numbers:

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While the 2020 census counted responses from household surveys, the annual estimates between the 10-year counts are based in part on counting births, deaths, and moves in and out, using the number of tax returns and Medicare filings.

The numbers do not reflect the recent influx of 41,000 migrants bused and flown to Chicago since August 2022. Census methodology does not account for migrant arrivals. Immigrants are typically hard to count because they may be transient, may not speak English and may want to stay under the radar, researchers said.

Oak Lawn Mayor Terry Vorderer, for one, didn’t buy the new estimates, noting that his town has added new townhomes while not losing housing stock…

Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s office also threw water on the results, highlighting past faulty counts made by the Census Bureau.

“For the last decade, the narrative that Illinois is losing population was fed, by what turned out to be, inaccurate annual preliminary estimates,” Pritzker spokesperson Alex Gough said in a statement. “Illinois remains one of the most populous states in the nation and is on the rise.”

International migration — which has risen nationwide — has nearly tripled in Illinois since 2021, Gough said. The state is in the process of challenging census data to ensure it receives adequate federal funding for programs like Medicare, affordable housing and homeland security, he added.

Is this about methods for counting populations or is this more about politics? For better or worse, these annual estimates have become media stories. Some places are gaining residents, others are losing. Communities with population loss have a hard time shaking all the associations that come with it. The implication is that population loss indicates decline and problems while growth is good.

On the other side, measuring populations is a sizable task. This is why so much effort is expended every ten years. The annual estimates have their own methodologies. They are estimates. This means there is some margin of error. These margins of error should be reported, even if the emphasis in the media continues to be on a concrete number of people gained or lost.

Census numbers might not be perfect but I would be interested in seeing the compelling evidence to suggest their estimates of population declines in some Illinois communities are far off or completely wrong.

A possible timeline of 50 years to build an American community for 50,000 people

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One source suggests it might take 50 years to complete a proposed community in California for 50,000 people:

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A group of Silicon Valley investors aiming to build a new city in California has collected enough support from residents to place a key zoning-change measure on the upcoming ballot.

The campaign said Tuesday it has surpassed the required 13,000 signatures, gathering the endorsement of more than 20,000 residents of Solano County, a largely agricultural community located northeast of San Francisco. The initiative, if approved by voters in the county, would pave the way from construction to begin by overturning restrictive zoning laws from the 1980s that limit development outside existing cities…

Completing the project in the region between the San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento could take as long as 50 years.

Building a new community is a sizable project. Is 50 years a normal time frame or longer or short than what we might expect? A few thoughts:

  1. The United States has a history of fast-growing communities. A city like Chicago grew from over 4,000 residents in 1840 to nearly 1.7 million people in 1890. That is fast growth. Or think of boom towns in the West. Or suburbs that in the postwar era that gained tens of thousands of residents in short periods of time. Most communities do not grow as quickly.
  2. Plenty of news stories and opinion pieces in recent years have weighed in on development processes in California. If it takes longer to build in general in California, then 50 years might be longer than expected in the United States.
  3. Going from few residents to 50,000 residents in a few decades is an accomplishment. But the size of the community at its buildout would not even put it in the top 100 cities in California by population.
  4. What are the expected growth rates at different points in those 50 years? How many years from now until the first residents move in? When does the development truly pick up steam?

Cities and metro areas like growth – but do not necessarily like the changes it brings

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Growth is good in the United States for cities and metropolitan regions. But, the changes that come with growth is not always viewed fondly by the people already there. The most recent example: Nashville.

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Remacia Smith watches her children play in a grassy park by the Cumberland River, not far from where software giant Oracle said last week it would base its new headquarters. It is bittersweet—her hometown is thriving, but it has reached a point where it no longer works for her…

“There are pain points of this growth,” said Kate Webster, a 35-year-old real-estate agent who has lived in Nashville for 14 years. “But at the end of the day, I’d rather live in a city that is growing than one that is declining.”…

The region needs to focus on improving transit options and traffic flow, and on more housing options, Gaughan said. Many neighborhoods need to rezone for construction that allows more people to live there, he said.

John Michael Morgan, a lifelong resident of the area, said he remembers when Nashville’s prospects weren’t so hot. The growth is exciting, he said, but he worries about Nashville losing some of its personality.

“Nashville’s always been a big town that felt like a small town,” said Morgan, who is 44 years old. “Now we’re a big town that feels like a big town.”.

Change can be hard for residents of a community. They are used to the way things were. They may have moved there for particular features of the community.

Increased population growth tends to lead to more construction, higher housing prices, more traffic, and different streetscapes.

However, the United States tends to treat growth as a good thing. What community wants to stagnate or decrease in terms of population and business activity? How many people want to be in an undesirable community?

At some point, the growth in Nashville will level out and that will offer an opportunity to assess what has changed. Is the city and metropolitan region now a different place? What has fundamentally (and perhaps unalterably) changed?

The Rust Belt as potential “climate refuge”

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If climate change prompts people to move, could the Rust Belt provide good places to live?

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Gibbons, who now works at the climate consulting firm Farallon Strategies, sees Michigan’s future in the Californians unsettled by wildfire. Those people are going to move somewhere. And so they should be persuaded to come to Michigan, she says, before they move to places like Phoenix or Austin. The Great Lakes region should market itself as a climate refuge, she thinks, and then build an economy that makes use of its attributes: the value of its water, its land, its relative survivability. In her vision, small northern cities, invigorated by growing populations, somehow manage to blossom into bigger, greener, cleaner ones.

“There’s no future in which many, many people don’t head here,” Gibbons told me. The only question is whether “we don’t just end up being surprised by it.” And so Gibbons wants to see the Great Lakes states recruit people from around the country, as they did during the Great Migration. Back then, recruiters spread across the South to convince Black people there that opportunity awaited them in the factories of the North: That’s what helped make Ypsilanti.

Internal migration has shaped the United States before, such as in the Great Migration cited here and the move of many West in different waves. But, has decades of decline in an entire region been reversed by internal migration?

Later in the article we read that some residents would not be thrilled with the idea of lots of outsiders moving in. I wonder how this might play out. Take a city like Detroit. Once one of the most populous American cities, the city lost hundreds of thousands of residents. The city’s status has dropped precipitously. Lots of people moving in could change things but don’t Americans tend to see population growth as a sign of health and vitality?

One last thought: would Rust Belt communities be willing to offer climate-related incentives to further entice people to move? A number of American communities already offer incentives. Imagine a “green moving package” that provides some assistance in finding affordable housing and work with limited climate impact.

South accounts for 87% of US population growth from 2022 to 2023

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What parts of the United States are growing in population? Look to the South:

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The Vintage 2023 population estimates show broader trends reflecting pre-pandemic norms, with fewer deaths and an increase in migration spurring growth. The net result was a gain of more than 1.6 million people in the past year, a 0.5% increase that brought the total U.S. population to 334,914,895…

Overall, 42 states saw population increases this year, topped by Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona.

The South accounted for 87% of the nation’s population growth, adding more than 1.4 million residents. The Midwest reversed a two-year slide, adding more than 126,000 people for a modest 0.2% increase. The West region also saw a 0.2% increase, while the Northeast declined by 0.1%, according to census data.

The South is the only region that sustained its population growth throughout the pandemic, fueled by both domestic and international migration.

The ongoing population shift to the Sunbelt continues. It may not last forever but this is a consequential in-process change that affects numerous aspects of American life.

The growth of the South required air conditioning

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The South is hot during the summer – especially so this year – and architectural adaptations to deal with the heat have given way to air conditioning:

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“They would build homes with transoms over the doors and over the windows,” Dr. Diaz explained. “They would build homes with the front door and the back door in complete alignment — you could basically create a wind current through the house.”

Days were structured around the heat, waking at 4 a.m. to work outside, then taking breaks and eating a big meal in the middle of the day…

The ascendance of air-conditioning was a transformative force in the South, facilitating the rise of suburbs and making the region less forbidding for companies that wanted to move in. Now, transoms and rising early have been replaced with drive-throughs and attached garages and cranking up the A.C. — for people with the means and jobs that allow it.

“People are so completely dependent on air-conditioning,” said Craig E. Colten, a professor of geography at Louisiana State University. “You run around on our campus and you see people going between classes in shorts and sweatshirts because the air-conditioning is so ramped up.”

Even as air conditioning makes inside activity more possible, it would be interesting to see how much activity during the hot months takes place inside compared to the rest of the year. If people in colder climes spend more time inside during the cold months, is the same true in the South during the summer?

And do not forget the importance of air conditioning for office work.

Can popular TV shows lure new residents to a city?

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Fort Worth, Texas is growing. Is this partly because TV viewers can see it on a set of popular shows?

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Mattie Parker, the mayor of Fort Worth, Texas, says a focus on crime, homelessness, parks and reliable infrastructure has positioned the city of 950,000 as an attractive alternative to Chicago, San Francisco and New York, which have struggled with perceptions of deteriorating safety in the aftermath of Covid-19.

The 39-year-old Republican, broadly considered to be a moderate in deep-red Texas, says that Fort Worth’s pitch to lure businesses highlights its roots (the city’s slogan is “Where the West Begins”) and small-town vibes, even if its stockyards are now more of a tourist draw than a genuine agricultural enterprise. The nostalgia for cattle ranching and cowboys generated by the hit television series Yellowstone and 1923 — created by Taylor Sheridan, who partly grew up in Fort Worth — are only adding to its allure.

“Fort Worth continues to be an incredibly unique city that is very proud of our Western heritage,” Parker said in an interview at City Hall, where a display case held shovels from groundbreaking ceremonies over the years. “And the timing couldn’t be better because of this fanfare and frenzy over Yellowstone and 1923.”

In Fort Worth, it’s common to see cowboy hats and boots paired with a tailored suit. Unlike nearby Dallas, which mostly feels like any other major metropolis, Fort Worth embraces its sense of place. There’s plenty of live country music, two-step dancing and Tex-Mex cuisine.

This is a long list of reasons for growth. Additionally, Fort Worth is part of the growing Sun Belt.

How much can depictions on a TV show contribute to this growth? Here is how Wikipedia describes the connections to Fort Worth that start with the TV show 1883, the earliest prequel for Yellowstone: “The series follows the post-Civil war generation of the Dutton family as they leave Tennessee, journey to Fort Worth, Texas, and join a wagon train undertaking the arduous journey west to Oregon (the Duttons are never on the actual Oregon Trail itself), before settling in Montana to establish what would eventually become the Yellowstone Ranch.”

I would be very interested in seeing some data regarding the connection between a popular television universe and population growth in a particular city. Are these shows also causing population growth in Montana? It makes sense for a local leader to make the connection to a show people like as it is always helpful to have good press.

Why people move to Phoenix (and similar locations)

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The Sun Belt has boomed in population and some cannot seem to figure out why. A historian explores the appeal of Phoenix:

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“Why would anyone live in Phoenix?” You might ask that question to the many hundreds of thousands of new residents who have made the Arizona metropolis America’s fastest-growing city. Last year, Maricopa County, where Phoenix sits, gained more residents than any other county in the United States—just as it did in 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017.

At its core, the question makes a mystery of something that isn’t a mystery at all. For many people, living in Phoenix makes perfect sense. Pleasant temperatures most of the year, relatively inexpensive housing, and a steady increase in economic opportunities have drawn people for 80 years, turning the city from a small desert outpost of 65,000 into a sprawling metro area of more than 5 million. Along the way, a series of innovations has made the heat seem like a temporary inconvenience rather than an existential threat for many residents. Perhaps not even a heat wave like this one will change anything…

Outside the summer months, the quality of life in Phoenix is really quite high—a fact that city boosters have promoted stretching back to before World War II. They traded the desiccated “Salt River Valley” for the welcoming “Valley of the Sun.” Efforts to downplay the dangers of Phoenix’s climate go back even further. In 1895, when Phoenix was home to a few thousand people, a local newspaper reported that it had been proved “by figures and facts” that the heat is “all a joke,” because the “sensible temperature” that people experienced was far less severe than what the thermometers recorded. “But it’s a dry heat” has a long history, one in which generations of prospective newcomers have been taught to perceive Phoenix’s climate as more beneficial than oppressive.

Most people surely move to Phoenix not because of the weather, but because of the housing. The Valley of the Sun’s ongoing commitment to new housing development continues to keep housing prices well below those of neighboring California, drawing many emigrants priced out of the Golden State. Subdivisions have popped up in irrigated farm fields seemingly overnight. In 1955, as the home builder John F. Long was constructing Maryvale, then on Phoenix’s western edge, he quickly turned a cantaloupe farm into seven model homes. Five years later, more than 22,000 people lived in the neighborhood; now more than 200,000 do. Even today, the speed of construction can create confusion, as residents puzzle over the location of Heartland Ranch or Copper Falls or other new subdivisions that include most of the 250,000 homes built since 2010…

“Why would anyone live in Phoenix?” serves as nothing more than a defensive mechanism. It makes peculiar the choices that huge numbers of Americans have made, often under economic duress—choices to move to the warm climates of the Sun Belt, to move where housing is affordable, to ignore where energy comes from and the inequalities it creates, and, above all, to downplay the threats of climate change. In that way, Phoenix isn’t the exception. It’s the norm.

Another way to put this: Phoenix and similar places embody the suburban boom in the United States. They offer cheap homes away from more established settlements in the United States. Sure, it involves a lot of driving, hot weather, and uses many resources but it appears to offer a pathway to comfort and convenience.

At some point, such growth may not be possible. For example, water supplies might not hold up. Or, Americans might decide a car-dependent life is no longer as desirable.

Another big factor that might slow growth is rising housing prices. If cheaper housing is indeed driving many people to Phoenix, more expensive housing might send people elsewhere. Phoenix is not the cheapest market people could go to. Right now it is popular and growing but this does not necessarily have to last.

How much will Sunbelt growth slow because of more traffic?

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More development and increased populations mean more traffic in multiple Sunbelt metropolitan areas:

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In most U.S. cities, traffic is less congested than it was in 2019, as fewer people commute to offices, according to mobility data company Inrix. In some Sunbelt cities, such as Miami, Nashville and Las Vegas, where the population has surged in recent years, it has become worse. 

These cities also attracted more companies and tourists during the pandemic. Local roads, built decades ago for a much smaller population, are struggling to accommodate the new reality. 

“They way underestimated their growth,” said Robert Cervero, professor emeritus of city and regional planning at the University of California, Berkeley, College of Environmental Design…

Sunbelt cities are particularly vulnerable to congestion because of poor public transit. Driving in New York City’s rush hour can be bumper-to-bumper, but many people take the subway. Most southern cities offer no such alternative…

For now, Sunbelt states are hoping to fight congestion by adding more roads and express lanes. Tennessee lawmakers are considering a proposal to add toll lanes on state roads. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis recently proposed spending more than $5 billion on highway construction and more than $800 million on rail and transit throughout the state.

Growth is good in the United States – until it threatens some of the attractive features of places that brought people there in the first place.

At what point do residents and businesses not move to growing regions because of congestion? These Sunbelt cities continue to have numerous attractive features even if they have more traffic.

Adding lanes to roads may appear proactive but it can lead to more attractive as more drivers think there is capacity. Considering mass transit is necessary but complicated by suburbanites who do not necessarily want transit to reach them, high costs to get basic mass transit in place (though this could help save money down the road), and limited interest in denser development.

Do smaller cities offer advantages here? I have heard this argument before: you can have more rural property conditions within a ten to twenty minute drive of the main shopping areas or the downtown. Achieving this is more difficult in a more populous area where there is more competition for land.

Residential population in Chicago’s Loop has grown

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A new population estimate in Chicago’s Loop suggests the number of residents increased in recent years:

The number of residents in the Loop — as the city’s central business district is known — grew by almost 9% since 2020, according to estimates from the Chicago Loop Alliance…

Population in the Loop, an area bounded by the Chicago River on the north and west sides, stands at 46,000, with the number of residents expected to grow another 17% by 2028, the group estimates. About 95% of residential properties are occupied, up from the pandemic low of 87%, and a rate that exceeds 2019 levels…

Most of the Loop’s population is 25 to 34 years old, with more than 80% living alone or with one person. Almost half don’t own a car and the majority cite the ability to walk to places, the central location and proximity to work as top reasons for living downtown…

The future of the Loop will also be more residential. Another 5,000 housing units are expected to be added by 2028, bringing the district’s total population to 54,000, according to the report. The estimates assume the global economy avoids a major recession, that the cost of building doesn’t become prohibitive and that city incentives to convert commercial blocks into homes move forward. Crime, rising property taxes and developments elsewhere are also threats to the forecast.

It will be interesting to see if and how this trend continues. Does this mean office space converted into residences? New development in the Loop where there are city-wide political battles on where development should be encouraged? Population growth in one part of the city while the population drops elsewhere?

Regardless of the larger context of what has happened in the Loop in the last few years, I am guessing this data point will be used to support development and civic plans.