Category Archives: Sociology

Manhattan congestion pricing plan delayed to persuade suburban swing voters?

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New York City was set to roll out congestion pricing for Manhattan but one writer suggests it was delayed to influence suburban voters:

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Hochul was just touting the benefits of congestion pricing two weeks ago, but she appears to no longer see things that way. According to a Tuesday night Politico report, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries started raising his concerns with Hochul, claiming that if the plan were to go into effect during this election year, the ensuing buzz could make it harder for New York Democrats to win back the House of Representatives. The proposed $15 fee for drivers heading into lower and midtown Manhattan—whether from the outer boroughs or from the broader tri-state region—remains unpopular with the types of wealthy, swingy suburban voters national Democrats need on their side. And considering how badly New York Dems botched the 2022 midterms, losing House seats that could have cut into Republicans’ narrow majority in the chamber, Jeffries would like to do anything he can to regain those seats—including mollifying the New Yorkers who own cars only because they make it easier to flee to the Hamptons. Hochul herself says her decision is based on concern that congestion pricing might deter people from heading into Manhattan at a time when the city is still recovering from COVID-era business losses.

As politicians and political parties consider the 2024 elections, they are likely focusing a lot of attention on pockets of suburbanites who can be swayed to go different ways with their votes. This has been important for a number of election cycles now with a country that is majority suburban and more predictable voting results in big cities and more rural areas. Thus, the national parties fight over middle suburbia.

In this particular case, I would be interested in seeing more numbers. How many suburbanites are affected by the congestion tax? How many suburbanites might change their votes based on this issue? Is the fate of the US House in the hands of a congestion tax?

More broadly, how often does traffic and congestion decide local, state, or national elections? People generally do not like traffic or congestion but also may not like new or higher taxes or resist impediments to drive when or where they want.

Creating new communities to better benefit from their tax money paid (and support whiter, wealthier residents)

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Residents of several places in the South have worked in recent years to form new communities:

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The Louisiana Supreme Court last month cleared a path for the creation of a new city, St. George, after a prolonged legal battle over the feasibility of the city and its implications for tax revenue.

St. George would take almost 100,000 residents away from East Baton Rouge Parish, and critics say it will deplete the parish of the resources from this wealthier, whiter community…

White fortressing, and other kinds of opportunity hoarding, concentrates resources — such as well-funded public schools, access to local revenue and zoning control — among white communities that are already economically and politically advantaged. Meanwhile, they also constrain access to opportunity among people of color.

Proponents of the new city in Louisiana argue that this is a move towards fairness, rather than isolation. On their website, they state: “St. George’s taxpayers provide two-thirds of the revenue to the East Baton Rouge Parish government with only one-third of that government’s expense in return. Incorporating a city would reverse this unjust circumstance to an extent.” This has been a relatively common argument among similar movements since the post-war era, something Princeton University historian Kevin Kruse documents in his work around white flight in Atlanta. When residents of the Buckhead neighborhood in Atlanta were advocating for secession in 2022, they also argued that they were “not getting back in services what they [were] paying in city taxes.”

These movements have persisted for decades, and they are not slowing down. Georgia has added 11 new cities around Metro Atlanta since 2005, most of which are affluent white communities that broke away from majority-Black/nonwhite counties. Last month, residents of a wealthy, majority-white community in Gwinnett County, the northern suburbs just above Atlanta, voted to approve forming the new city of Mulberry, just as the county has become majority-Black.

Several thoughts in response:

  1. This has happened in the United States for a long time in many different forms. These forms include: limited annexation expansion of Midwestern and Northeastern cities starting in the late 1800s as suburbanites no longer wanted to be part of the big city; white flight, urban renewal, and federal support for suburbanization in the mid-twentieth century; formal and informal policies and actions to enforce residential boundaries; and a persistent presence of residential segregation.
  2. Such actions do not reckon with the broader and longer-term consequences of inequalities across places. Those who live in a wealthier community may experience a particular day-to-day life but they are not fully insulated from the concerns of the broader metropolitan region or society at large. Do communities have responsibilities to their residents and to society more broadly?
  3. I wonder how many Americans would agree that what they pay in taxes should roughly return to them in similar amounts from the government.

The International Car Wash Association, the American Beefalo Association, and the purpose of business associations

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I recently drove by the headquarters of the International Car Wash Association. I did not know this group existed and I wanted to learn more. According to their website, here is what this group does:

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International Carwash Association (ICA) is the nonprofit organization representing the car wash industry in the United States, and uniting it around the world. Its members own, operate or support nearly every car wash business in dozens of countries. ICA offers the world’s largest car wash events and exhibitions, the leading online manager training program (LEAD™), news and inspiration through CAR WASH Magazine™ and a variety of industry research products (Pulse™).

Why did this catch my eye? In graduate school, I made a very small contribution to a research project by sociologist Lyn Spillman that involved me going through a multi-volume set of American business associations and coding basic information from the entries. I read a lot of entries about organizations that I never knew existed. Only the name of one group stuck with me from that work: the American Beefalo Association. From their website, here is more information about beefalo and the group:

Beefalo was developed in the early 1970’s by a Californian producer who successfully interbreed American Bison with domesticated cattle. After nearly 150 years of selective breeding, the perfect balance was found in 3/8th’s Bison and 5/8th’s domestic cattle. This new cross had high fertility success and a superior balance of traits for modern-day uses and needs. With this cross, the hardiness of the bison was retained but was melded the easy temperament, superior carcass structure and meat quality of domesticated cattle. In 1975 the American Beefalo Association was formed as the breeds popularity sky-rocketed. By 1985, USDA meat testing had concluded substantial differences in Beefalo’s nutrition profile when compared with traditional beef warranting beefalo it’s own meat label and regulations. Today beefalo is experiencing a resurgence in the health food market as consumers are actively becoming more conscious about where their foods come from, invested in animal welfare and engaged in sustainability efforts.

Spillman went on to write a book – Solidarity in Strategy: Making Business Meaningful in American Trade Associations – explaining how these organizations bring meaning to business activity. Spillman writes, “Associations often dwell on shared identity, admire technical excellence, highlight contributions to the group, and express occupational camaraderie, with little attention to strategic economic purposes.” (13) In other words, the International Car Wash Association and the American Beefalo Association might be assumed to be about generating revenues but they may be more about bringing people across an industry together and creating solidarity.

When major water pipes break in a major American city

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Water is generally taken for granted in American cities and metropolitan areas. So when major pipes break in Atlanta, it has major ramifications:

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Atlanta’s Department of Watershed Management announced water service would be halted at 5 p.m. Friday in much of Atlanta, including all of downtown, so crews can work to repair breaks on a 48-inch and 36-inch transmission line “that carries large volumes of water to the metropolitan area.”

Just after 2 p.m., the Watershed Management Department issued a boil water advisory “out of an abundance of caution.” The advisory affects any Atlanta water customers who have experienced a water outage or low water pressure. The order was still in place on Sunday afternoon, even though repairs were completed on the major break near Joseph E. Boone Boulevard. Other repairs were continuing.

More details on water main breaks and pipes in Atlanta:

The problems began Friday morning where three large water mains intersect just west of downtown. Wiggins said at a Saturday news conference that at least some of the pipes that burst were old and corroded. With pipes coming together in a confined area, it was a tight squeeze to make repairs, with only one worker at a time working in the manhole accessing the junction. Repairs were completed Saturday evening, officials said.

Another water main later burst in the city’s Midtown neighborhood, which is studded with new office, hotel and apartment towers. Wiggins said Saturday that officials weren’t sure yet why that pipe had broken. That leak continued to gush through the city streets Sunday. City officials said Saturday that they were working on ways to isolate the leak from the larger water system and were awaiting a part needed to repair to the pipe. Dickens declared a state of emergency so the city could buy materials and hire workers without following the normal purchasing laws.

Faltering infrastructure is a common story in older parts of American cities. Atlanta has spent billions in recent years to upgrade its aging sewer and water infrastructure, including a tunnel drilled through 5 miles of rock to provide the city more than 30 days of stored water. Last month, voters approved continuing a 1-cent sales tax to pay for federally mandated sewer upgrades. The city at one time routinely dumped untreated sewage into creeks and the Chattahoochee River.

What are the odds of multiple major breaks in one weekend? Is the best way to address this to completely update the system?

Vital infrastructure is not just built once and then runs forever. It needs to be maintained. Expanding regions and changing conditions may require major updates. Constructing these systems in the first place required a lot of work; keeping these systems fit for the future may require even more.

Some stories in recent years have drawn attention to urban water issues. Water problems in Flint. Lead pipes throughout Chicago. Drought in California. Addressing these issues might not be exciting but it is essential to current residents, let alone visions of a bright future.

I imagine there is some sort of story that already tackles this but what happens in a large city if there is no water for more than a few days. What happens? Who is prepared?

Americans will watch TV where they could learn something – if it is competitive

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Could the Spelling Bee bring Americans together? One commentator makes the case:

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The Spelling Bee is the rare event that would get people to tune in due to word of mouth. It would become the rare communal event in 2024.

You have to watch it live.

Thursday night, the Spelling Bee went to a lightning-round tiebreaker and 12-year-old seventh grader, Bruhat Soma, came out on top.

Sounds awesome. It would’ve been fun to watch it with everyone else.

That is a tall order for the fragmented world – entertainment-wise, politically, socially, economically – of 2024.

Jeopardy! is another show that comes to mind as contestants show off their knowledge and win money. It has a good audience and show happenings can generate strong online/social media debate.

But how many shows involving learning or knowledge would Americans watch if there was not competition? Can learning itself make for compelling television?

Sprint, acronyms, and building infrastructure along railroad lines

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I recently learned that the company named Sprint had an acronym for a name:

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Sprint also traces its roots back to the Southern Pacific Railroad (SPR), which was founded in the 1860s as a subsidiary of the Southern Pacific Company (SPC). The company operated thousands of miles of track as well as telegraph wire that ran along those tracks. In the early 1970s, the company began looking for ways to use its existing communications lines for long-distance calling.[22] This division of the business was named the Southern Pacific Communications Company.[29] By the mid 1970s, SPC was beginning to take business away from AT&T, which held a monopoly at the time.[22] A number of lawsuits between SPC and AT&T took place throughout the 1970s; the majority were decided in favor of increased competition.[29] Prior attempts at offering long-distance voice services had not been approved by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC), although a fax service (called SpeedFAX) was permitted.[30]

In the mid-1970s, SPC held a contest to select a new name for the company.[31] The winning entry was “SPRINT”, an acronym for “Southern Pacific Railroad Internal Networking Telephony”.[31]

This is clever. The acronym also hints at the history of the company that was partially born out of railroad operations. The railroad made all sorts of notable changes to the American landscape: it increased the speed of travel for passengers and goods, it connected far-flung places, and it brought activity to new places.

It also enabled other infrastructure. In the case of Sprint, the same right-of-way that carried train traffic could carry messages via telegraph. This substantially increased the speed of communication. Today, we think very little of messages and texts and information flying across geographies in seconds. That same railroad that allowed speeds significantly faster than horses or humans also made space for bits and data to speed around the world.

Put another way, could the online and smartphone world we know today have happened without telegraph and phone infrastructure that provided foundational space for new technology to take advantage of? I do not know the answer to this question but Sprint and other telecom companies made use of existing infrastructure to help bring about new technologies.

What exactly is “strong opposition” to a proposed nearby development?

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This is a familiar situation in American communities: a landowner proposes a change to their land. The potential change goes to the local government for approval. Neighbors and community members have an opportunity to weigh in. Some people voice opposition. How might we know whether the community opposition is “strong” or not? It could be measured in multiple ways:

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-The number of people clearly opposed to the change. This could be the difference between two opponents speaking at public meetings versus 60. Or there may be an online petition with hundreds or thousands of signatures against the proposal.

-The loudness of the opposition. Are those opposed speaking out regularly? Are their concerns expressed clearly and often online and in the media? Is the opposition clearly identifiable and known within the community? What kind of rhetoric is being used by all sides?

-The connections and resources of the opposition. Do they have the ear of leaders and politicians? Who can support the opposition? Will an unfavorable decision lead to a lawsuit?

-Is “strong” opposition that which leads to the proposal being voted or turned down?

All of this is context dependent as well. Certain proposals will generate more attention based on their location and the proposed change.

I would guess most opponents of proposed developments are spirited and believe in their cause. Whether this adds up to “strong” opposition might be much harder to judge.

(This thinking was inspired by a headline regarding a local land use proposal that some residents opposed.)

Rockford as the top real estate market in the US

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One source suggests affordable housing plus job opportunities means Rockford has a lively real estate market:

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ROCKFORD — The city is now home to the top real estate market in the country, according to a new ranking released Thursday by the Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com.

The housing market ranking evaluates the real estate market and economic health of the 200 most populous metro areas in the country. The Rockford metro area was the only one in Illinois to crack the Top 50. Peoria landed at 59.

“It’s a great validation of what we’re seeing locally in the market with our year-over-year price increases, hitting our record highs,” said Conor Brown, CEO of the NorthWest Illinois Alliance of Realtors. “We know we’re such an affordable market, but we have seen an influx of people from Chicagoland and elsewhere coming into the market being so impressed with how much they can buy, and they’re really helping drive the prices.”

The new report is a major turnaround from one released by the Wall Street Journal a decade ago, when Rockford was declared the underwater mortgage capital of America. At that time, about 32% of the metro area’s homes were valued at less than the money owed on the mortgage.

Now, the city is being praised for an affordable housing stock and growing health care, aerospace and logistics industries.

Several things strike me as interesting in this ranking and reaction:

  1. An important part of the story is that the city/real estate market was not doing well not too long ago. This is not just about things improving; it is also about coming back from challenges.
  2. Increasing housing prices is seen as a good sign. Do these rising prices also make it more difficult for some to find housing?
  3. Missing from this story is any mention of the population. Rockford’s population is roughly flat over the last two decades. Is Rockford growing? Or growing in certain areas (like particular sectors or neighborhoods or communities)?
  4. Proximity to Chicago appears to be a positive factor. Do these people commute to the Chicago region or need to be in the office infrequently? Is Rockford seeing an influx of remote workers?
  5. How long can such a streak continue? Rockford can have the hottest market at the moment but it could be surpassed by other places or the local market could cool off. What does the narrative become then?

Now we have the Home Buyer Index

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NBC, with the help of experts, developed a new index to summarize the ease or difficulty of buying a home in many counties in the United States. It produces a number between 0 (easy to buy) and 100 (hard to buy) and consists of four factors:

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  • Cost: How much a home costs relative to incomes and inflation — as well as how related expenses, such as insurance costs, are changing. 
  • Competition: How many people are vying for a home — and how aggressive the demand is. This is measured through observations including the percentage of homes sold above list price and the number that went under contract within two weeks of being listed. 
  • Scarcity: The number of homes that are on the market — and how many more are expected to enter the market in the coming month.
  • Economic instability: Market volatility, unemployment and interest rates — reflecting the broader climate in which home shoppers are weighing their decisions. 

The value of an index is that it attempts to incorporate a lot of data into a single number. Given the current real estate market in many places, having this single number could help express what home buyers can expect or are experiencing.

At the same time, this seems like the product of a particular moment. Home buyers perceive a tighter market than they might like. This index confirms it. The index goes back to 2012 with the data available: it was quite a bit lower ten years ago in 2014 and it really ticked up in late 2021.

Two additional questions:

  1. How many potential home buyers would act differently based on this index? Will this encourage people to not try so hard to purchase a home?
  2. Does this score mean it is a great time to be a home seller? Is the home seller index roughly the inverse of the index for home buyers?

Naperville as “the second largest economic engine (in Illinois)”

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The last paragraph of a story about NCTV in Naperville hints at the economic activity in the suburb:

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Spencer said she views additional city funding for NCTV17 as an investment into what the station does for the community.

“We think we’re more important and more relevant than ever to Naperville as the fourth largest city and the second largest economic engine (in Illinois),” she said. “We think we provide a really big service. … With a little support from our friends at the city, (we think) we can weather this storm and arrive at port bigger and better than ever.”

What features of Naperville would mark it as such a large economic engine? Its population puts it in the top four communities in Illinois, following Chicago, Aurora, and Joliet. But population alone does not tell the full story. Some more features of Naperville

–Lots of human capital and economic resources among residents: “The region has a civilian labor force of 79,726 with a participation rate of 69.2%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the Naperville city, IL, 74.0% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 34.3% in the nation. The median household income in the Naperville city, IL is $127,648 and the median house value is $424,800.”

–Nearly 80,000 jobs in the suburb.

–Certain job sectors well represented: “The largest sector in the Naperville city, IL is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 12,989 workers. The next largest sectors in the region are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (12,897 workers) and Retail Trade (8,375). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (LQ = 2.22), Utilities (2.08), and Management of Companies and Enterprises (2.05).”

–Lots of office space available: “The office market in Naperville, IL incorporates 10,451,396 square feet of office space across 56 buildings that are at least 25,000 square feet in size.”

-A vibrant downtown.

–Lots of awards from different outlets.

–Billions of dollars each year in retail sales.

-Multiple corporate headquarters in the city.

-Part of the I-88 corporate corridor, access to multiple major highways, and close to two major airports and Chicago.

As I put together this list, Naperville indeed sounds like an edge city.

In a state dominated by Chicago, it is noteworthy to be second in line as an economic engine. I wonder what other Illinois communities are trumpeting their economic prowess and how many of them are suburbs.