A disappearing middle class?

Yahoo Finance has a story that contains 22 statistics to “prove” the American middle class is “radically shrinking.” Interestingly, some of these statistics don’t prove much of anything about the middle class even if  they do indicate something about America as a whole. The post does show that the wealthy have gotten wealthier but without more context (statistics to compare to from the past, rates from other nations, etc.), there are better statistics to use to make this argument. Some of the statistics are linked to the latest economic downturn such as a rising number of bankruptcies and a rising time for finding a job.

Some examples of weaker statistics:

-“36 percent of Americans say that they don’t contribute anything to retirement savings.” How does this compare to previous rates? Perhaps the Americans of today don’t save like people in the past?

-“More than 40 percent of Americans who actually are employed are now working in service jobs, which are often very low paying.” Service jobs are often low paying – but we don’t know much more from this statistic.

-“For the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43 million Americans in 2011.” Sounds bad – but since we now have more people in the country, a percentage would be a much better measure.

-“Average Wall Street bonuses for 2009 were up 17 percent when compared with 2008.” This is a shot at Wall Street more than an explanation about the middle class.

Other statistics do back up his point (even though they would all benefit from more explanation):

-“66 percent of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top 1% of all Americans.”

-“Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.”

-“The bottom 50 percent of income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.”

On the whole, this seems more an alarmist piece. There is evidence to back up his argument – but the evidence here is not presented well and needs a lot more context.

Chicagoland residents prefer more spending on mass transit

A new poll from the Chicago Tribune and WGN shows that more suburbanites would prefer to spend money on mass transit than on highways and roads. According to the poll:

Fifty-two percent of suburbanites said they agree with investing more of limited government resources in public transit, versus 32 percent who chose improvements to highways and toll roads. In a 1999 Tribune poll, 34 percent of suburban residents said more money should be spent on mass transit than on roads.

Even in the collar counties, half said public transit deserves a higher priority in spending decisions.

These are some surprising figures as suburbanites typically prefer road spending in their auto-dependent lives. How exactly this increased mass transit spending might happen is less clear with the state of Illinois facing a major budget crisis.

One citizen interviewed for the story mentioned adding “an around-Chicago rail line.” This would help improve rail service to the suburbs as the current Metra system is a hub-and-spoke model where travelers have to go into Chicago before heading back out. A plan for this has been in the works for a long time as the Star Line would use the Elgin, Joliet & Eastern right-of-way (just recently bought by Canadian National) to connect Joliet and O’Hare while crossing a number of Metra spoke lines. Read more about the Star Line here.

Being left off the guest list for the Clinton wedding

The New York Times talks to some people left off the guest list for the Chelsea Clinton wedding. Those left off the list may want to be at the wedding to wish Chelsea well (and several do say this toward the bottom of the article) but there is another dynamic at work:

After all, Washington is a town that revolves around power and access to power, and Ms. Clinton’s wedding has inadvertently provided the chattering class with an imprecise — and, many say, inaccurate — measure of where they stand in Clintonworld.

This is a reminder that much of the adult world revolves around acquiring and defending one’s social status.

Ending summer vacation

Time makes an argument for ending the typical American summer vacation from school. Numerous studies indicate that children lose ground during the summer and low-income students lose a lot of ground:

And what starts as a hiccup in a 6-year-old’s education can be a crisis by the time that child reaches high school. A major study by researchers at Johns Hopkins University concluded that while students made similar progress during the school year, regardless of economic status, the better-off kids held steady or continued to advance during the summer — while disadvantaged students fell back. By the end of grammar school, low-income students had fallen nearly three grade levels behind. By ninth grade, roughly two-thirds of the learning gap separating income groups could be blamed on summer learning loss.
The article also mentions the romanticism linked with summer vacation: trips, outdoor activity, freedom. This seems particularly crucial for American teenagerdom when teenagers get a first taste of being away from their parents. Even though I really liked school, I did enjoy summer vacation and all the options that were available to me (which not everyone has).
Would it be too difficult to split the summer vacation into two sections of about a month or a month and a half long? This seems like a reasonable compromise: some time off for everyone, shorter gaps for students to lose knowledge.

Swimming skills and race

The Chicago Tribune reports on efforts to teach more minority children to swim. The reason is that minority children have fewer swimming abilities (70% of black children and 60% of Hispanic children have limited or no abilities compared to 40% for white children) and the drowning rate for 5 to 14 year olds is three times higher for blacks compared to whites.

College students and studying

Boston.com reports on a study by two professors that found college students study less today: 14 hours a week on average today compared to 24 hours a week on average in 1961. Why this is happening is less clear:

But when it comes to “why,” the answers are less clear. The easy culprits — the allure of the Internet (Facebook!), the advent of new technologies (dude, what’s a card catalog?), and the changing demographics of college campuses — don’t appear to be driving the change, Babcock and Marks found. What might be causing it, they suggest, is the growing power of students and professors’ unwillingness to challenge them.

Whatever the reason, one thing is clear: The central bargain of a college education — that students have fairly light classloads because they’re independent enough to be learning outside the classroom — can no longer be taken for granted. And some institutions of higher learning have yet to grapple with, or even accept, the possibility that something dramatic has happened.

Very interesting findings and something that colleges and universities will have to adjust to.

The Atlantic chimes in with 8 reasons that may explain why studying is down.

h/t Arts & Letters Daily

Stress and social hierarchy

The latest issue of Wired has a fascinating article about stress. In addition to its effect on our physical bodies, the articles examines how stress is produced from being part of a social hierarchy. According to some studies cited in the article, being at the bottom of a social ladder produces harmful stress. This is not just because of the work but because those at the bottom have less control over their work. Those who we might consider to have “high-stress jobs,” such as doctors or lawyers, don’t feel the same negative effects of this stress since they have more control over their daily activities. Those working low-trust jobs, particularly in bureaucratic organizations, have higher death rates than those at the top, even controlling for other factors.

Apparently, the article is not available online but you can read some of the opening here on a Wired blog.

Looking ahead 40 years

Smithsonian magazine celebrates its 40th anniversary by writing about “40 things you need to know about the next 40 years.”

Out of the 40 predictions, some of the ones that intrigued me:

4. New cars will be given away, free.

11. The heartland will rise again.

12. The top US social problem? Upward mobility.

13. By 2050, one out of three US kids will be Latino.

25. Artists will run the world.

27. Everyone will make his own music.

36. Good-bye stereo; hello, hyper-real acoustics

40. Reading will become an athletic activity

Learning from Flint, Michigan

An article from Slate about Dan Kildee, a former politician in the Flint area and recent co-founder of a nonprofit dedicated to helping cities in trouble, and his ideas about turning around this hard-luck Michigan city. The general idea as the journalist describes it: “manifest-destiny-in-reverse for urban areas.”

Crime rates vs. perceptions of crime

The Chicago Tribune reports on a recent Chicago area poll of 800 heads of household that found nearly half of Chicago residents think crime is up. The reality is that crime rates are pretty steady: homicides are up less than one percent compared to last year and overall crime rates are down.

One reason given for these perceptions: several high-profile shootings of Chicago police officers. According to one academic:

“Police officers are the embodiment of authority,” said Arthur Lurigio, a professor of psychology and criminal justice at Loyola University Chicago. “When officers are getting shot, that gives citizens a sense that the social order is completely collapsing. The average citizen, the regular guy and woman on the street, are going to think, ‘If they’re shooting police, what chance do I have?'”” Police officers are the embodiment of authority,” said Arthur Lurigio, a professor of psychology and criminal justice at Loyola University Chicago. “When officers are getting shot, that gives citizens a sense that the social order is completely collapsing. The average citizen, the regular guy and woman on the street, are going to think, ‘If they’re shooting police, what chance do I have?”

Another factor that is likely playing a role: media coverage. As a consumer of Chicago news, much of what I have heard about in the last few months is crime, shootings in particular. These may be stories that should be reported on but the coverage has been heavy. If one were just to watch or listen to the local news, I have little doubt many would think crime is up and perhaps even out of control.