What if some suburbs enforce certain non-moving vehicle violations and others do not

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The suburb of Naperville, Illinois is concerned about loud mufflers and the police are acting accordingly:

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Noisy mufflers were among the top complaints at a recent “chat with the chief,” and city council members also have fielded complaints coming from the downtown district and the south end of Naperville near 95th Street.

The noise from engines revving and modified mufflers can get loud enough to be heard blocks away, said Mayor Scott Wehrli, who lives near the city’s downtown district. This summer, for example, motorcycles revving their engines through one of the parking decks created enough noise to disrupt an outdoor summer band concert, he added…

Under state law, it is illegal to have a modified muffler on a vehicle, Naperville Police Chief Jason Arres said. Naperville police have been issuing citations based on that law.

Between Sept. 1 and Oct. 8, police issued 26 citations. Two of them resulted in guilty pleas on Wednesday and about $300 in fines for each citation, officials said…

Arres, who noted complaints about noisy cars is not unique to Naperville, is hopeful word will travel fast that loud cars aren’t welcome in town.

Two questions quickly came to mind when I read this:

  1. Will loud cars and vehicles now avoid Naperville? It is a big community with lots of locations for locals and visitors to travel to.
  2. What if nearby suburbs do not enforce this state law? Say Naperville continues to enforce this law and issue citations and some of the drivers do indeed stay away; will these drivers simply visit nearby suburbs? Will they get their vehicles fixed or modified? While Naperville is indeed big, nearby suburbs could many of the same kinds of places to drive to.

This is not just limited to loud cars; what about enforcing having proper license plates or tinted windows that are too dark or other vehicle issues that are not moving violations? If a number of communities do not enforce this, will it make that much of a difference?

It will take some time to see if the issue is addressed to the satisfaction of Naperville leaders and residents. And will the problem shift to neighboring suburbs?

AI generating a new history through pictures?

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AI platforms can create images that might look they are historical photos. This could be a problem:

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Widely shared on social media, the atmospheric black and white shots — a mother and her child starving in the Great Depression; an exhausted soldier in the Vietnam war — may look at first like real historic documents.

But they were created by artificial intelligence, and researchers fear they are muddying the waters of real history…

For now, Amaral and Teeuwissen believe they can still tell fake historical images from real ones just by looking at them.

AI-generated photos often have tell-tale glitches: too many fingers on a hand, missing details — such as the lack of a propeller on the Wright brothers’ plane — or, on the other hand, compositions that are too perfect.

“AI-generated pictures can recreate the look, but they miss the human element, the intent, the reason behind the photographer’s choices,” said Amaral.

With AI text and images, history could be all redone. What is available online, often the first or primary source for many, could provide different historical accounts and evidence.

Of course, history to some degree is always in flux as different actors and different contexts affect how we understand what happened in the past. There are things that happened and then perceptions and interpretations of those happenings that often take time to develop and solidify. AI joins an already existing process.

Do AI images then pose a unique threat to historical knowledge and narratives? If history is primarily created and understood through images online, perhaps. Will others find ways to demonstrate that certain images are truly from the past?

Some difficulties in directly studying the effects of social media use on mental health

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As more actors express concerns about how social media use affecting the mental health of “children and teens,” this article suggests it can be hard to directly measure this link:

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It doesn’t help that mental health is influenced by many factors, and no single treatment works for every person. “It’s not as straightforward as: What is the right antibiotic for that ear infection?” said Megan Moreno, a scientist and pediatrician at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and co-director of the Center of Excellence on Social Media and Youth Mental Health at the American Academy of Pediatrics…

Among the reasons that make it difficult to isolate the role of social media in kids’ mental health is that the relationship between mental health and tech use is a two-way street, the panel from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said. A person’s mental state might influence how he or she uses the platform, which in turn affects his or her state of mind. 

Randomized, controlled studies on whether social media caused the mental-health crisis are impractical because exposure to social media is now everywhere, researchers say. In addition, platforms are constantly changing their features, hobbling efforts to run long-term studies, they say.

A decade ago, Munmun De Choudhury, a computer scientist at Georgia Tech, was part of a team that showed that groups promoting disordered eating were skirting Instagram’s moderation efforts. De Choudhury says that such studies probably would be impossible today because social-media companies no longer allow access to public data, or charge hefty fees for it…

Research into the roots of distress in young people has found that other factors—bullying, or lack of family support—have stronger associations with mental-health outcomes, compared with social-media use.

These are different issues. This includes having access to data from platforms as well as data over time. Additionally, it takes work to separate out different influences on mental health. Randomized controlled trials that could help with this are difficult to put together in this situation. Other factors are shown to influence mental health.

Some think there is enough data to make the argument about social media use influencing mental health. For example, social psychologist Jonathan Haidt puts together evidence in his latest book The Anxious Generation. His approach is one that social scientists can take: there seem to be consistent patterns over time and other factors do not seem to account as well for the outcomes observed. And if there is a growing consensus across studies and scholars, this is another way for scientific findings to advance.

This is an ongoing situation as policy efforts and research efforts follow sometimes intertwining paths. If a state restricts social media use for teenagers and then mental health issues drop, would this count as evidence for social media causing mental health distress?

Adding hundreds of luxury apartments to a shopping mall – and not affordable housing

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Why add affordable housing to the suburban shopping mall when a developer and community can add hundreds of luxury apartments to the mall? Such a plan is under discussion in Skokie, Illinois:

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The Skokie Village Board gave tentative  approval at its Oct. 8 meeting for developers to build hundreds of luxury apartments across three buildings at the upscale Westfield Old Orchard Shopping Center.

The first phase of construction would create 425 apartments between two mixed-use buildings, one five stories tall and one seven stories tall. The second construction phase would be for an additional seven-story building that could be used for more apartments or a hotel, said Stephen Fluhr, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield’s senior vice president of development…

The additions to the mall were met with criticism by an affordable housing group, which blasted the Village Board for approving plans they saw as having too few affordable apartments.

The first phase would put two buildings in the area of the former Bloomingdale’s retail space in the northwest part of the mall, south of Old Orchard Road and east of Lavergne Avenue.  The developers’ intention is to create a new neighborhood complete with parks, restaurants and spaces for concerts and farmers markets, according to Fluhr. The development is a partnership with the mall’s owner URW and Focus, a development group that is also in the process of building apartments near malls in Vernon Hills and Aurora.

Many malls would like to add housing to their property (examples from the Chicago suburbs to southern California): it makes use of vacant shopping space and provides local residents who might visit stores, restaurants, and entertainment options at the mall.

I would also guess many mall and community would like to add luxury apartments. These apartments will attract certain kinds of residents, those with resources to spend more in the community and contribute to a certain status. Luxury apartments at malls would go along with the idea that only the wealthiest malls will survive.

But, as communities consider affordable housing, why not include affordable housing as part of redeveloped housing at the mall? Many suburbs have limited greenfield development options so redevelopment provides an opportunity for affordable housing. Or affordable housing could provide housing for people working at the mall or working near the mall as shopping malls tend to be close to all sorts of businesses and jobs.

The bigger issue at hand is likely this: how many suburbs are truly willing to add affordable housing? And if they say they want to add such housing or have local regulations that require it, where will they allow it be located?

Who may and may not benefit from going off the electric grid

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With the declining price of solar panels and an increasing ability to go off the electric grid, who could benefit?

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These trends, coupled with increasing grid electricity costs and decreases in both solar and battery costs, have made economic grid defection a salient issue.

But this also raises concerns about potential “utility death spirals,” where as more customers leave the grid to save money, the ones who are left face higher electricity costs, prompting even more to leave until the utility is bankrupt.

This trend raises two major concerns. First, those who can’t afford to leave the grid — often the poorest households — will end up paying the most for left-over fossil fuel electricity from the grid. Leaving the grid requires a hefty up-front cost, and not everyone can afford it.

Second, our research shows that the diesel generators used as back up for off-grid solar and battery systems will cause significant pollution — even more than the grid in some locations.

Large-scale infrastructure often serves large numbers of people. Without a large user base – whether it is a highway or an electrical grid or a sewage system – it is harder to justify its construction and maintenance. When most, if not all, the population participates, resources can be pooled and the infrastructure can serve the common good. The shift to mass society can with systems that (theoretically) served all.

If not everyone participates, things can get interesting. We see this playing out in a number of areas. What if more people start purchasing electric cars? The gas tax resources that fund roads start to shrink so there are ways to make up that revenue. What if health care is a multi-tiered system where those who good jobs and insurance can access better care? Then the public option might suffer in terms of quality and prices.

The vision above hints at a two-tiered electric system: those who have the means to produce their own electricity and those who cannot and need to keep paying for an aging system. If the trends described keep going, it could lead to interesting discussions and choices made about how to provide electricity in the United States in the 21st century.

Update to where suburban voters lean in presidential race

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One poll suggests a slight change in voting preferences among the numerous suburban voters in the United States:

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Suburbanites, who make up about half of the U.S. electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a key prize. Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.

Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading him 43% to 40% among suburbanites in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in June and July, reflecting the Democrat’s struggle to energize supporters.

Harris began closing the gap when she launched her campaign in July and led Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in polling across September and October. That represents a nine-point swing in the Democrat’s favor, according to the analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from over 6,000 registered voters…

Winning the middle – whether nationally or in the election’s key states – won’t necessarily crown the victor. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who got nearly 3 million votes more than Trump nationwide in the 2016 election and beat him in suburban counties by about 1 percentage point, still lost the election when Trump flipped six states that had voted Democratic in 2012.

Several thoughts in response:

  1. This follows patterns from recent election cycles: how suburbanites vote, particularly in key states, is important for the outcome.
  2. Suburban voters are a sizable block of voters as this is where a majority of Americans live. Do all suburbanites vote the same? No, suburbia is increasingly complex with people in suburbia have different experiences and backgrounds.
  3. Related to the previous point, do suburbanites see themselves as a voting bloc? If I were to take the Chicago metropolitan area as an example, voters across the region might not see themselves as similar to others in the region’s suburbs.
  4. Will the presidential candidates appeal more directly to suburban life in the last few months? If the economy is the biggest issue for voters (as the article suggests), is talking about the middle-class direct enough? Trump in 2020 spoke directly about suburbs; will both candidates do this in 2024?

Add political ads to political yard signs in a third season

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On Monday, I proposed adding political yard sign season to the Chicago seasons of winter and construction. I want to amend that third season: include political ads with political yard signs.

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Political ads are everywhere this time of year and they are hard to avoid:

-During all TV broadcasts. Whether watching football games or news broadcasts or sitcoms, candidates are all over the screen.06

-Internet and social media ads. I do not see many of these due to using adblockers but the ads are over the place.

-Mailings as candidates flood mailboxes with appeals and glossy photos and policy positions.

-Texts asking you to vote for candidates or support a candidate. How many of these numbers do we need to block?

-On the radio. Perhaps not as pervasive as TV but still there.

And I do not even live in a battleground state where I would guess there are even more ads.

The political ads must work to some degree as millions are spent on them. Who exactly is convinced by them? Do they primarily rile up a base who then votes in larger numbers? At the same time, I remember hearing a talk by a sociologist who interviewed campaign managers who reported that social media ads are preferable because it is easier to measure who responds or engages compares to mass media ads.

Commercials are part of the American way of life. Anywhere you turn, you see brands, logos, and appeals for particular products. Given that landscape where we see thousands of ads, why not throw in politicians and parties and issues as just another brand or product to sell?

Like the political yard signs, the ads will disappear after Election Day. They will be back for the next races as different actors try to position their candidates in front of the public in a truly American way.

When mortgage rates do not decrease as expected

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The Fed cut interest rates. Mortgage rates did not go down; they went up:

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Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has moved higher, not lower.

According to data from Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped about 47 basis points since the Fed rate cut, to 6.62% from 6.15%…

Going forward, the situation hinges on the Fed’s rate-lowering schedule. At present time, market expectations — as calculated by the CME FedWatch tool — are for two more 25-basis-point cuts this year.

Whether that will manifest itself in lower mortgage rates is up in the air. Two major upcoming events are the Consumer Price Index release this Thursday, as well as the October jobs report in the first week of November.

Life does not always go as predicted. However, this saying does make it easier to work with the unexpected happenings. And with large-scale systems, lots of people might hold an expectation or be told something will happen. With all the moving pieces in the financial system (plus its interactions with other parts of the world), patterns can change or there can be exceptions to regular patterns. Since home sales are an important part of economic, social, and community life, any changes like these have ripple effects. If it slows down home purchases and selling, this affects a lot of actors.

One question to ask is whether there are certain periods or conditions when the predictable is less likely to happen. Is this rise in rates when they were expected to go down a one-time occurrence or part of broader instability? How predictable are mortgage interest rates given particular circumstances?

The diamond interchange advances in the Chicago region

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A new diamond interchange, the fourth in Chicagoland, just opened in the southwest suburbs of Chicago:

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Illinois Department of Transportation leaders unveiled a new diverging diamond design they predict will expedite travel for drivers on the interstate and local roads…

“The modern design is a proven solution to improve safety and traffic flow in a busy area like where we are today,” IDOT Secretary Omer Osman said…

The interchange dovetails with Rock Run Collection, a major Will County development that will include housing, retail, restaurants, offices, and the relocated Hollywood Casino Joliet…

A diverging diamond has a smaller footprint than conventional cloverleafs and is cheaper to build.

Innovation to keep all the vehicles moving smoothly between interstate and a local major road.

What other major roadway changes could help speed up traffic and increase safety? Adding lanes does not necessarily speed up traffic. The Chicago region has plenty of left-turn on green signal only lanes that help reduce certain crashes. Protected bike lanes are only found in a few denser places.

Is the answer in better vehicle technology? Vehicles that talk to each other and/or driverless cars? Smaller or lighter vehicles?

Another possible solution is to reduce the amount of driving. This could be hard in sprawling suburban areas, like where these diamond interchanges are located. Introducing more mass transit options in the region is possible but it is costly, is harder to implement in the suburbs, and it might not find favor among residents.

The drivers at this busy interchange may come to appreciate their new diamond among the asphalt. Others may want to wait for more innovation that improves travel through suburbia.

Add political yard sign season to winter and construction

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A Chicago area joke suggests there are two seasons: winter and construction. I would like to propose a third and occasional season: political yard sign season.

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This season is a regular occurrence even as it does not show up every year, it might be more visible on the 4 year presidential election cycle, and it occasionally occurs during primary voting periods in the spring. On its more regular schedule, by early October numerous lawns and public intersections contain political yard signs. Lawns – usually clear of obstructions – broadcast political messages for those passing by. They range from national offices (president, Senate, House) to very local offices (townships, local forest preserves, etc.). They differ in size – some huge, some small and hard to read – and in color, often tied to the traditional colors of the two major parties with some occasional other colors thrown in.

Most lawns do not have signs. Some property owners have them each political yard sign season, others are more occasional participants. The corners of major intersections can be little battlegrounds as people place signs for different candidates and different races.

What difference does political yard sign season make? I do not know. Do those going by at suburban driving speeds (1) have time to read the signs and (2) ever change their preferences or voting patterns? Is it more about political mobilization among residents where signs are symbols of their fervor? For the stories and images I see of signs stolen or removed, do these actions change anything?

Soon political yard sign season will pass. Election Day comes and the signs disappear rapidly. Some might hang on for a while longer, braving the cold and snow of winter. Almost none will be around for the coming of the next construction season. For a short period, political yard sign season blooms and we all experience it.