Mismatch between the slightly smaller homes millennials want and bigger homes builders want to construct?

Some data from recent years suggests builders and younger homebuyers may not see eye-to-eye on what kinds of homes they want:

A new survey from the National Association of Home Builders suggests that millennials — the demographic that should be the big driver of home buying over the next decade — is growing increasingly pragmatic about size. In 2018, one-third of millennials said they would trade smaller size for greater affordability; in 2007 just one in five millennials found that tradeoff palatable.

Indeed, in its most recent annual report, Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies notes the builder vs. buyer mismatch. “With millions of millennials moving into their prime home-buying years, demand for smaller, more affordable homes seems poised for a surge,” the report stated.

Yet builders aren’t interested in ponying up the supply.

The JCHS says that in 2017 small homes represented just 22% of new homes, compared to an average of 32% between 1999 and 2011. And to be clear, the JCHS is not talking about tiny homes for millennials. It defines small as 1,800 square feet or less. That is still bigger than new homes’ median size a generation ago.

Just how much smaller are the homes that millennials desire? The median new home size decreased last year to around 2,300 square feet. What exactly is the range of home size millennials most desire (and how does this size interact with other important factors such as locations or features of the home)?

On the other side, builders are likely interested in constructing larger homes because they can make more money off each unit. Additionally, there is still some demand for larger homes though this could change in the coming years with more millennials in the housing market alongside older residents who are no longer buying homes or who are looking to sell their own large homes.

All of this is of interest to the housing industry (and other related observers): will millennials kill McMansions? Where are the newly constructed starter houses? On the whole, Americans still have large homes on a global scale and an intertwined set of social and cultural factors that keep that going. There is both money to be made here and new dwellings younger homebuyers would like to explore (if they can afford them).

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