How many colleges in the United States have closed in recent years?

But it is not, as the New York Times claimed, part of “an epidemic of college closures.” Nor is it part of “a slew of small colleges that have closed because of financial instability or are at risk of shuttering,” according to the Christian Science Monitor. It is simply false that, as the Washington Postreported, “college closures have become increasingly common as campuses compete for a shrinking pool of U.S. students.” And Hampshire’s demise is certainly not an example of “a structural realignment” linked to an intentional “downsizing” program led by the Trump administration, as per the Washington Times.

The facts: According to a very good compilation list, since the beginning of 2020 exactly 49 degree-granting nonprofit colleges and universities have closed or announced their closures. That’s an average of seven per year, out of the 3,227 such institutions that existed in 2020. Now, I’m no epidemiologist, but an annual mortality rate of 0.02 percent does not sound like an epidemic to me.

Furthermore, the schools that have closed fit a specific type: super small. Hampshire had 844 students when it announced its closure, and that puts it at the high end of the 49 schools. Only five had over 2,000 students. Nine had less than 200 students. (For reference, the average nonprofit institution enrolls about 5,500.) And most fail an obscurity test I like to call “Have I heard of it?” I study higher education for a living. But of those 49, I’ve previously heard of just 10. Hampshire is well known despite its small size, and places like Cardinal Stritch University in Wisconsin and Birmingham-Southern College in Alabama had local recognition. But Limestone University? Eastern Nazarene College? Alderson Broaddus University? Cazenovia College? I could go on. No offense to their alumni, but these are not exactly name-brand schools.

The reason for the “…yet?” in the title of the post is because, as noted later in the article, there seem to be some with vested interests in this area:

So who is pushing the “epidemic” narrative? Many of the recent news stories have cited, often without name, a recent report that trumpeted past closures and identified 834 American colleges and universities facing “existential threats” in the near future from declining enrollment and other financial pressures. It’s from the Huron Consulting Group, a “global professional services firm” that offers its wares to manufacturers, utility companies, oil producers, commercial real estate investors, and—you guessed it—higher education. The Huron report is not publicly available and their press release offers no details on methodology except that they “analyzed more than a decade of data to develop a model with some predictive potential.” No worries about that though; presumably, colleges and universities would get to learn all the details once they pay Huron to help them navigate “a platform for the coordinated exchange of institutional assets.”

Several quick thoughts in response:

1. Numbers do not interpret themselves; humans measure and report data, making interpretations along the way.
2. Do we have longer-term data on the closings of colleges and universities? Having a baseline over time could be helpful.
3. Going back to #1, this is an example of how some social issues get discussed in media and in the public. There is some data or evidence and people start talking about it. Predictions are made. People look for patterns and trends. They can tend to look for patterns and evidence that fit their predictions.
4. Even if there is not a big change at this point, does this necessarily mean there won’t be big changes in the years to come?

I’m sure there will be more to come on this topic.