Author Archives: legallysociable

The prevalence of industry in 19th century American suburbs

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In recently reading The Working Man’s Reward: Chicago’s Early Suburbs and the Roots of American Sprawl, I noted this in a chapter on the Town of Lake which was annexed into Chicago in 1889:

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The U.S. census reported that the number of suburban jobs rose after 1850 and accelerated after 1880, so that, in the second half of the nineteenth century, suburban employment constituted one-third of all manufacturing employment in America. Ignoring those jobs beyond the central business district means ignoning blue-collar workers and ignoring one of the leading forces for suburbanization in America. (75)

A large part of the American Dream of suburbia involves single-family homes. But the story of suburbia also includes industry and jobs. In this book, historian Elaine Lewinnek highlights the move of industry to suburban areas outside of what was then the Chicago city limits and how working people followed those jobs. They often ended up in small, single-family homes close to new factories and meatpacking facilities.

Why did industry move to the suburbs? Land was cheaper. They could build large facilities. The downsides of industry – noise, smells, pollution – affected fewer people and the land uses faced fewer regulations in suburban areas.

The one statistic that jumped out at me in the paragraph above was that “one-third of all manufacturing employment” was in the suburbs. Some of those suburban areas became part of the city, as they did in Chicago. But industrial suburbs continued, such as in places like Gary, Indiana, as did suburban employment. When the most common commuting trip in the United States today is suburb to suburb, this is part of that legacy of suburban industry and work.

Some suburbs are indeed bedroom communities with limited or no commercial and industrial land uses but the suburbs as a whole have lots of business activity.

The pandemic gives residents to some places, the years afterward take them away

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What happened to the places that gained residents during the pandemic? Some are now experiencing less growth:

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Flash forward to today, and the big “winners” of the work-from-home reshuffle — metros that drew hordes of footloose workers and disaffected coastal dwellers — have turned into losers. Fewer people are moving to so-called Zoomtowns. Home listings are piling up on the market. Prices are dropping. The anxiety has shifted from buyers trying to elbow their way in to sellers just trying to offload their properties. A new report by the real estate analytics firm Parcl Labs, shared exclusively with Business Insider, shows that home sellers in the lower half of the US, also known as the Sun Belt, are the most desperate in the country…

Housing demand surged early in the pandemic — the country’s homeowning ranks swelled by a whopping 2.2 million people between the first quarter of 2020 and the same point in 2022, an analysis by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies shows. But for all the talk of upheaval, movers more or less stuck to those pre-pandemic flight patterns — just at warp speed. People kept migrating from big-city centers to the suburbs and from the North to the South. Sun Belt states, including Florida, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina, experienced the largest population gains from domestic migration between mid-2020 and mid-2021, per a Harvard analysis of Census data. The Dallas metro, for example, gained around 63,000 people from other parts of the country that year, a huge jump from just 19,000 the year prior. Phoenix, Tampa, Austin, and Charlotte recorded similar increases. Expensive states with large urban areas, including California, New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts, saw the biggest losses…

The North-to-South movement still holds, but the North is losing fewer people, and the South isn’t gaining like it once was. The most recent numbers, for the yearlong period ending in mid-2024, show net domestic migration to the South was down almost 38% compared to the first year of the pandemic. Domestic migration to the Midwest, on the other hand, is up about 60% in that same period, though it’s still negative in absolute terms. The Northeast’s net loss was down to 192,000 in the latest tally, compared to a loss of 390,000 at the height of the pandemic. With the migration tide receding, sellers in once-hot metros are getting real. In Denver, Charlotte, Jacksonville, and a smattering of other Sun Belt markets, more than half of single-family homes for sale have seen a price cut, Parcl Labs data shows. In the Boston, Philadelphia, and Buffalo metros, the share of listings in that bucket drops to fewer than a third.

That’s just one metric. To gauge sellers’ desperation these days, Parcl Labs created what it calls the Motivated Sellers Index, which combines four factors: the number of price cuts on home listings, the time in between those cuts, the size of the price decreases, and the length of time homes are spending on the market. The higher the score, the greater the homeowners’ urgency to sell. The lower half of the US, with the exception of much of California, is awash in high scores, indicating sellers are ceding negotiating power to buyers. Same goes for much of the West. The Midwest and Northeast, on the other hand, registered some of the lowest scores in the nation: Sellers there are sitting pretty by comparison.

This is something I have wondered about a lot in recent years and even addressed, with Ben Norquist, in a chapter in my book Sanctifying Suburbia: in today’s world of smartphones, the Internet, and easy travel, why do people and organizations stay where they do when they could be located almost anywhere?

Evangelical non-profits described the benefits of being near other evangelical organizations. They thought they could find employees in certain places and could partner with other actors in the community. Some had long histories in their community while others had made a major move to help their budget.

Residents do not just go where there is cheap housing or plenty of jobs. They have ties to places and people. Moving comes with its own costs.

So some more people moved related to the pandemic following similar patterns in previous decades: away from metro areas in the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. And that appears to be continuing, but at a slower pace and with some indicators that the rapid growth in the South and West is slowing. What does this all mean?

Perhaps the pandemic years were an aberration. Yes, people can work from home but this is not what all companies and organizations want. Bring a bunch of new people to new places and the housing prices go up and the communities change.

Does this mean all that movement would stop completely? Or that places in the Northeast and Midwest would grow? Not necessarily. Long-term patterns are hard to break.

Suburban moratoriums on data centers and warehouses; what might be built instead?

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The suburb of Aurora has put a temporary hold on approving data centers and warehouses in the community:

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Such concerns led Aurora’s city council to enact a temporary zoning moratorium on data centers as well as warehouses. Mayor John Laesch made clear officials are not against data centers as a whole.

“It’s just trying to give us time to make sure that we have the proper guardrails in place,” he said.

In neighboring Naperville, at least one city council member said he’s exploring the idea of a similar pause.

My longer-term question for Aurora, Naperville, and suburbs with similar concerns: what will they approve for the land that might be used by data centers and warehouses? Several options they could pursue:

  1. Green or open space on this land. This might be hard to do with land zoned for commercial and industrial use as suburbs hope such land will generate tax revenue and jobs. But residents might like this option if the alternative is something that generates noise and traffic.
  2. Pursuing office space or industrial uses with limited noise and pollution. The problem with this could be whether there is demand for such structures. How much vacant office space is there already in office parks and buildings along I-88? How long could a community pursue these options if the market is not favorable?
  3. Approving housing. There is a need for housing in the Chicago area and both Aurora and Naperville have experienced population growth in recent decades. But what kind of housing – expensive units without too many kids (so as to not burden local school systems)? Housing for seniors or young professionals? Affordable housing? Would neighbors like more housing – noise, traffic, potential water issues, etc. – near them?

Perhaps some suburbs can wait this all out. Will the boom in warehouses and data centers end at some point? If some suburbs say no to data centers and warehouses, they will end up somewhere. Will the warehouses end up not being in wealthier suburbs?

Political prediction markets vs. political polls

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Could political polls be replaced by political betting markets?

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The rise of political betting is not just lucrative for the bettors and the platforms. Its advocates also hope that one day, it can replace the political prediction industry generally and remake the larger political media ecosystem. “[Traders are] incentivized with cold, hard cash to separate the emotion, to make a bet with their head rather than the heart,” said John A. Phillips, the CEO of the betting platform PredictIt. That means, the boosters argue, that they are more accurate than traditional polls and analyses of those polls…

But another group is paying attention to these platforms’ rise: those who have a special interest in political predictions, from campaigns to journalists to any number of groups and individuals who might be affected by the outcome of an election. Rather than relying solely on polling, punditry or counting yard signs, in advance of big election nights, the markets put together all available information and spit out a number that looks like the collective wisdom of a lot of people with money on the line. That can often lead to a number that is a more comprehensive reflection of a certain candidate’s chances of winning than any single poll or piece of political analysis…

While these markets’ long-term prediction capabilities can often equal or beat the predictions of most conventional polls, where they really have an edge is in rapidly responding to events…

But 2024 is just a single data point. In 2016, for example, prediction markets underrated Trump’s chances compared to the 538 model. With few major U.S. elections that have a lot of betting volume to study, the truth is that it’s still not possible to know for certain whether prediction markets can consistently outperform polling averages.

I wonder how much of this optimism about political betting is more about the perceived and real downsides of polling as of 2025. It has not preformed well in the last decade or so. Response rates are not good. There are lots of polls and polling companies claiming they can get a good poll. At what point does polling become so inadequate that media and others stop sponsoring polls and/or using the information? Or I could imagine a point in the next few years where a number of polls stop operating as several organizations show they get more accurate results.

It would also be interesting to know how much money there is to be made in prediction markets versus what is invested in the polling industry. Who wins when lots of actors are involved in either polls or predictions? Or when do regular Americans participate in political prediction markets?

And let’s see how academic studies of polls and prediction markets help shape the upcoming narratives about each. How much will careful studies help identify the strengths and weaknesses of each approach or are there are forces at work that will shape how people view these options?

Not knowing about significant local events, bridge collapse edition

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I have driven over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge a number of times when flying into Tampa and driving south. Here is an image of the roadway leading onto the bridge from 12 years ago:

Recently looking through used books at a local library, I learned that part of the prior span collapsed after being hit by a boat in 1980:

Wikipedia’s description of the disaster:

The second incident came on the morning of May 9, 1980, when the freighter MV Summit Venture collided with a support pier near the center of the bridge during a squall, resulting in the catastrophic failure of the southbound roadway and the deaths of 35 people when several vehicles, including a Greyhound bus, plunged into Tampa Bay.[13] Traffic was diverted onto the surviving two-lane span for several years until the replacement Skyway Bridge was completed, at which time the old bridge was partially demolished and converted into two[14] long fishing piers.

This is a significant local event that I had not heard of before. Such events are rare and likely stick in people’s memories for a long time. But as a visitor to the area, even one who has been there at least a few times, I did not know that this bridge had once collapsed.

What else am I missing when visit places near and far? In my research on suburbs, I have focused on key moments involving character, times when communities had public discussions about the choices they faced. Looking back, it was clear that these choices then shaped subsequent decisions and the character of the community.

Could local disasters have a similar effect on local character? Catastrophic events can rally a community, impacting people far beyond just those direct affected. Do people remember when they heard about the bridge collapsing? How many people wondered about their own drive over the bridge?

The most likely ways I could imagine finding about such events is either through reading about what happened or talking with someone who lived in the area. And some events might be more important than others; a major hurricane in an area is going to have a larger effect than a smaller matter.

Safety and other amenities in a narrative of why families choose to move to specific suburbs

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When there are scores or hundreds of suburbs in large metropolitan regions, how do people select which suburb to move to? I recently read one common narrative based around a top safety ranking for one Chicago suburb:

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It’s a small village, just over an hour from the heart of Chicago by car, but it has consistently reported some of the lowest crime rates in the region, with a violent crime rating of zero. This small-town security is one of the driving forces behind Campton Hills’ rising popularity with families in recent years. People moving out of Chicago or nearby suburbs are looking for peace of mind in their neighborhood, and this village delivers exactly that…

A place with such a high safety ranking is the perfect spot for families to put down roots. In this regard, Campton Hills is truly designed for families to thrive. Schools in the area have earned a strong reputation for academic achievement, supportive teachers, and a wide range of extracurricular opportunities. The village is also home to some of the highest-rated public schools in the state.

In the village, there is an impressive range of amenities to keep families busy. Community parks provide space for picnics, soccer games, and weekend strolls, while nearby forest preserves give children the chance to explore nature close to home. (Nature lovers should visit this peaceful suburb near Chicago next.) Access to healthcare and family-oriented services is reliable, with clinics and hospitals within easy driving distance. Campton Hills also hosts seasonal events that bring neighbors together, including the Boo After Dark Halloween event.

It always feels like a win when you find somewhere close to the city that still feels like it’s tucked away in the middle of nowhere. And Campton Hills’ rural character is something that truly makes it stand out. Unlike some suburbs that feel like extensions of the city, this village keeps the perfect balance of open countryside and convenient access to Chicago.

The story starts with safety. People are looking for a safe place with little to no crime. Their kids will be safe. It is away from the city and others places with crime.

But then the story goes on to include other factors that attract families to this specific suburb. The schools have a good reputation. There are parks and forest preserves. Medical care is nearby. The community comes together for events. It is close to Chicago but feels rural.

Is this how people chose a community to live in? Do they prioritize safety and then if other things look good, they go with that? Do they research all the statistics about various communities, look at rankings provided by numerous sources, and develop their own composite score of which community comes out on top?

I am reminded of research from sociologists Annette Lareau and Elliot Weininger where they find networks, affected by social class and race, mattered for how people chose communities. What networks lead to Campton Hills and other suburbs like it? How do relationships and social ties provide people with information about communities? Do articles like these make their way through some networks?

(Interestingly, Campton Hills is a new suburb: it was incorporated in 2007. And it is relatively small: just over 10,000 residents in the 2020 Census.)

A scary front lawn, not full of weeds or leaves but frightening Halloween decorations

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Halloween provides an opportunity for homeowners to have a scary front yard. This does not mean the green lawn is marred by weeds or leaves but rather by certain decorations:

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Mabon is one of a number of homeowners in and around the Chicago area who aren’t satisfied with simply slinging a fake web and plastic spiders across the front yard or spending a small fortune buying ready-made jump-scare creations. They share another important trait: the need (or maybe the obsession) to create something that wouldn’t look out of place in a professional haunted house or on a downtown stage…

When the sun goes down, Mabon’s house is transformed into a Halloween-themed faux nightclub, complete with booming music, colored lights and even a velvet rope. Mabon and his wife, Dawn Armstrong, even plan to dress up in black “Security” t-shirts to escort the V.I.P. kiddos along a red carpet to the candy stash on the big day…

Scattered upon the season’s withering plant life, the couple have erected a macabre art gallery: a thrift store still life to which Spata has seamlessly added a severed Medusa head; a copy of the Mona Lisa, her smiling face replaced with a skull and the painting’s title renamed “Moaning Lisa.” A dead shrub has become a netherworld creature — a nightmare of spiky, jutting limbs and platinum blonde hair…

Four faceless evil spirits — think the Ringwraiths from “The Lord of the Rings” or the Harry Potter Dementors — appear to float like smoke above the flowerbeds around Byrne’s otherwise perfectly normal Ravenswood Manor bungalow.

The largest evil spirit, which looks as though it is oozing out of the bungalow basement, is 16 feet long.

Halloween provides interesting social space to explore themes not always talked about or displayed. This extends to lawns, which homeowners in suburbs or city neighborhoods often keep prim and proper. For this portion of the year, the homeowners are allowed to fill what might be a lush, immaculate fall lawn with symbols of death, fright, and the macabre.

What might be truly scary is if the lawn is devoted to Halloween too early or too late. Imagine a full Halloween lawn that starts just after Labor Day. After all, if Labor Day is the unofficial end of summer, stores carry Halloween goods way before the day, and Halloween is the next major holiday, why not start early? Or, what if someone chooses to keep large Halloween displays up well into November, perhaps even past Thanksgiving and into Christmas decorations season? I am sure HOAs are on this.

Or there might be a point where the Halloween decorations pass from frightening to truly scary. What might neighbors and communities consider going too far? When does the lawn display go from celebrating the holiday to upsetting the neighborhood’s character?

All of this is part of the negotiations Americans engage in with their front lawns. On display for neighbors and people passing by, there are expectations what they can look like and be used for. Halloween may push the boundaries but there are still boundaries with ideas about the good or proper lawn.

The mostly Christian US House and Senate

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How does the religious affiliation of the members of Congress compare to the religious affiliation of Americans as a whole? This came up recently in a conversation about religiosity and government so I tracked down some data.

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For the religious affiliation of Americans as a whole, here are figures from the Pew Religious Landscape Survey with data collected in 2023-24 from more than 35,000 respondents. With 62% of American adults identifying as Christian, here are the percentages for particular religious traditions:

-23% evangelical Protestant

-11% mainline Protestant

-5% Black Protestant

-19% Catholic

-2% Latter-day Saint

-2% Jewish

-1% Orthodox Christian

-1% Muslim

-1% Buddhist

-1% Hindu

-29% religiously unaffiliated

For the religious affiliations of members of Congress, here is a summary of what Wikipedia has for House members and Senate members. The categories are not the same as the religious traditions for the Pew Religious Landscape Survey but there are points to compare. Starting with members of the House of Representatives:

-375 of the 435 (86%) are Christian. Of these Christians, 236 are Protestants in specified traditions (including 63 Baptists, 22 Methodists, 16 Episcopalians, 15 Presbyterians, 13 Lutherans, 10 non-denominationals) and 88 are unspecified Protestants. Of the 375 Christians, 126 are Catholics, 7 are Eastern Orthodox, and 6 are Latter-day Saints.

-24 of the 435 (6%) are Jewish.

-4 of the 435 (1%) are Muslim

-4 of the 435 (1%) are Hindus

-2 of the 435 (0.5%) are Buddhist

-18 (4%) are unknown or refused to state.

-4 (1%) are unaffiliated.

And here is the religious affiliation for members of the Senate:

-86 of the 100 (86%) are Christian. Of these Christians, 59 are Protestants in specified traditions (including 12 Baptists, 5 Methodists, 5 Episcopalians, 12 Presbyterians, 6 Lutherans, 6 non-denominationals) and 5 are unspecified Protestants. Of the 86 Christians, 24 are Catholics, 7 are Eastern Orthodox, and 3 are Latter-day Saints.

-9 of the 100 (9%) are Jewish.

-1 of the 100 (1%) are Buddhist

-4 (4%) are unknown or refused to state.

How does the religiosity of Congress compare to the country as a whole? Pew sums up:

Christians will make up 87% of voting members in the Senate and House of Representatives, combined, in the 2025-27 congressional session. That’s down from 88% in the last session and 92% a decade ago...

And yet, at 87%, Christians still make up the lion’s share of the Congress, far exceeding the Christian share of all U.S. adults, which stands at 62% after several decades of decline…

The new Congress is also more religious than the general population by another, related measure: Nearly three-in-ten Americans (28%) are religiously unaffiliated, meaning they are atheist or agnostic or say their religion is “nothing in particular.” But less than 1% of Congress falls into this category…

In a country where a majority of adults identify as Christian, Congress is roughly 25% more Christian than the population as a whole. This may change in the coming years as more American adults do not identify with any religious tradition or group.

Some American cities have seen no gain in housing values for decades, others with large gains

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Looking at long-term data regarding housing values in different American cities shows large differences across places:

What drives these differences?

When we stopped to think about that, we couldn’t get it out of our heads. So many of us have internalized the lesson that homes are speculative, flippable investment vehicles, yet in much of the country — Cleveland, Memphis, Detroit, we could keep going — housing has been a truly quotidian commodity. There, home prices simply keep pace with inflation over the long run, no different from spaghetti or sprockets…

Consider that Dallas, Houston, Seattle and Portland, Oregon, all had what the researchers would classify as high demand for housing. But prices in Dallas and Houston have only roughly doubled in price since 1890, compared with a more than sixfold jump in Portland, or almost fivefold in Seattle…

“If prices go up,” Lyons asked us rhetorically, “does supply come on stream to follow? Do people look to build homes?”

Since 1970, the metros where housing stock grew the least relative to population growth — think Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego or Seattle — saw the some of the fastest home price growth. While metros that built enough housing — such as Atlanta, Phoenix and Charleston, South Carolina, saw home prices rise much less rapidly, even as their populations soared.

Does this suggest that Americans have come to view houses as investments when some places in the country have not experienced large increases in housing values over time?

For the cities with big increases over time, how do local leaders and residents see the jump in property values? It clearly leads to issues with affordable housing: rising housing values prices some people out of the market, particularly compared to what that market was and what residents had previously experienced. But rising housing costs can be viewed positively: people can sell their properties for more money and rising values can be associated with success.

This might be another reason why it is difficult to address housing issues at a national level. Housing is a very local issue and the cities in the top row of the graphic above have very different conditions compared to the cities in the bottom row.

No Kings protests throughout the Chicago suburbs

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In the last decade or so, protests in the United States do not just take place in big cities. For example, the No Kings website listed over 30 gatherings in the suburbs of Chicago:

The website listed 7 sites in Chicago itself, including the primary site in the Loop which drew over 100,000 people. But people in the region had plenty of options where they could join others. Some of these locations are close to the city while others are on the edges of the metropolitan region. From what I can see on the map, most residents were with 10-15 miles of a protest site and many could access multiple options.

Three related thoughts:

  1. The portrayals of suburbia in the postwar era tended to emphasize its conservative or Republican bent. This may have been true in numerous places but is harder to sustain these days with suburbs closer to cities often leaning Democratic and suburbs on the suburban edges often leaning Republican.
  2. It would be interesting to look more closely at these suburban protest sites. Where can people gather in the suburbs for political purposes? Suburban downtowns or city halls? Shopping areas or busy streets? Public parks and public spaces? Which places helped increase the solidarity among those gathered and which ones helped them reach others who did not come?
  3. The suburbs are built around driving. How many protesters around the Chicago region drove, parked, and then protested? Protests tend to happen on foot but people have to be able to get there and options are limited in some suburban settings.