Would Americans view cities differently if the current drop in violent crime continues?

Crime appears to be down in a number of American cities:

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Nineteen people were killed in Chicago last month, which is the fewest murders the Windy City has experienced during any April since 1962. In Baltimore, there were just five murders in April—the lowest number in any month since 1970. Three other major cities—Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Detroit—recorded their fewest first-quarter homicides since the 1960s.

Criminologists tend to speak in caveats, with warning of reversion to the mean and admonitions to wait for better data, but even they must admit: These are some eye-catching numbers. “It’s really encouraging,” said John Roman, a crime researcher at the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center. “It’s worth taking a moment and noting that we are approaching the numbers in most crime statistics we haven’t seen since the 1960s. In these cities, if you’re under 55, this is probably the safest moment you’ve ever lived in. That’s great, and it should be celebrated.”

The early 2025 crime decline builds off numbers from 2023 and 2024 and appears to include not just homicide but also robberies, rapes, burglaries, and auto theft. In many respects, we are returning to a pre-COVID world of public safety, with profound implications for residents of neighborhoods tormented by gun violence, the police who are supposed to solve the problem, and the politicians who love to campaign on the issue.

For decades, many Americans have associated big cities with crime. This can be in comparison to the settings in which they live – and a slight majority of the country is suburban – and can persist despite fluctuations in the actual crime rate.

But this is also connected to long-standing anti-urban sentiments. In a country that idealizes small-town life and where many love the suburbs, cities can look unappealing. Any reports on crime – whether crime is up or down – could feed into this broader narrative.

This goes beyond politicians trying to make political points by playing up particular issues cities face. How about the media and how it reports crime? How about the ways Americans perceive safety? How about police? And so on. There are facts about crime and perceptions about crime. For a long time, Americans have connected crime to cities. It might take a long downturn in crime for that connection to be broken.

What businesses can operate out of single-family home zoning, tulip farm edition

A resident of the Chicago suburb of Barrington Hills has been told multiple times he cannot operate a “u-pick flower farm” from his property:

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“As advertised, your on-site, outdoor, retail business use of Property is strictly prohibited and must immediately cease,” the May 16 letter read. Small, at-home businesses are allowed under the village’s House Occupation Code. The catch is they must operate indoors.

Yamamoto has been appealing for about a year, hoping to work with the village to update the zoning code and allow for the farm. He even submitted three separate proposals. The first aimed to tweak the code so that residents can apply for special use permits for agrotourism. The second changed “agrotourism” to “agricultural experiences” and limited what could be sold and the number of people who were allowed on the property. The last proposed a change in the village’s definition of “agricultural activities” — which are already allowed — to include on-site sales…

“The Village’s Zoning Board of Appeals was particularly concerned that under these various proposals, similar outdoor commercial operations could be allowed to occur on every residential single-family property in the Village,” Paul wrote.

But Little Ducky still has support in the community. Several residents showed up to Yamamoto’s first proposal hearing in August 2024, and many more wrote letters. In all, 133 written comments were submitted, with 129 in support and four in opposition. Of those who spoke in person, 16 supported the farm, while three opposed it…

Yamamoto isn’t giving up. He’s already submitted two more applications and has been waiting for a response since February. In the meantime, he and his wife are picking and delivering tulips themselves.

Single-family home zoning in the United States generally exists to protect the housing value of residences. Businesses operated out of residential properties may threaten the calm, peaceful nature of neighborhoods.

The catch in this case seems to be that indoor businesses are allowed – imagine something involving a home office or a service that can be provided in a home – versus an outdoor operation. That outdoor business could create noise or be unsightly or disrupt the character of a single-family home neighborhood. Residents might be willing to put up with loud power equipment to keep their landscaping looking good (or not) but an outdoor business is a threat.

It will be interesting to see if support from local residents could shift the outcome. Could a one-time variation in the zoning be granted? Or the zoning guidelines changed to allow clearly-defined agricultural uses?

For suburbanites who do not like high local taxes, which local services would they reduce or cut?

In thinking about recently receiving property tax bills in our county, I wondered what suburbanites would be willing to give up in order to lower their taxes. Here are some thoughts about each of the taxing bodies that receive monies:

-the county: how many people could name exactly what the county provides? Some roads, some medical and social services, some other things. Perhaps some people would rather pay a municipality or a state to do the same things?

-Forest Preserve: our county’s Forest Preserve is large and people tend to like green space and nature. Is it worth the cost (and the potential lost to developing more housing to address needs)?

-pension funds: I’m guessing taxpayers have little choice here.

-DuPage Airport Authority: how many average residents see the benefits of having a private airport within the county? Perhaps this helps some businesses?

-water commission: getting water is necessary.

-Milton Township with four lines: does the work the township does be carried out by the county or municipalities?

-City of Wheaton: lots of local services, including roads. What would residents want the city to do less of?

-Park District: not everyone participates and facilities and programs can be costly. But is the alternative all private options?

-mosquito district: who likes mosquitos?

-K-12 school district: the tax costs are high but what suburbanites want lower quality schools (which then they often associate with property values)? Or how many people want less money for the next generation?

-Community College district: with the costs of college these days, would people be willing to have a smaller community college or no community college option?

Consider these all together and the tax money goes towards schools, roads, public health, and more. Perhaps the argument could be made that these same services could be provided more efficiently or at better scales. This might save some money but does not necessarily address the long-term issues of rising costs and the need to update and maintain vital infrastructure. And if voters restrict one source of funding – such as limiting property taxes in California – then governments will seek revenues elsewhere.

Is it possible to consider all of these taxes at once rather than considering them one a time through referendums or each body making decisions that are best for them?

Illinois drops state’s 1% grocery tax, over 150 communities have adopted one

Local governments need revenue for local services. So when the state of Illinois dropped its 1% grocery tax, many municipalities have adopted their own 1% tax:

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Even though the measure failed in Bensenville, at least 163 communities around the state have recently enacted local grocery taxes.

Gov. JB Pritzker signed a bill last year repealing the state’s 1% grocery tax, saying it hit poorer families harder. But the bill also allowed municipalities, which depend on the revenue, to implement their own tax. Bensenville put the proposal on the ballot to get voters’ input, but local officials are not required to do so. In many municipalities, local governing bodies are casting the deciding vote…

The state suspended the grocery tax for fiscal year 2022 to help fight rising inflation, but municipal leaders say losing the stream of revenue permanently forces them to consider cutting services, raising sales or property taxes, or implementing a local grocery tax. If they approve a local grocery tax by Oct. 1, it would take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, when the state tax expires…

Illinois residents already pay the highest combined state and local taxes in the nation, at more than $13,000 annually, according to a recent report by WalletHub. Food prices rose 3% in the past year as of March, and the federal government forecasts them to rise another 3.5% this year…

“If local governments believe it is necessary to tax milk, bread, eggs, etc. to fund local services/local government, then they should be responsible and accountable for that decision to local taxpayers,” Illinois Department of Revenue spokeswoman Maura Kownacki told the Tribune. “The state should not be imposing a regressive, statewide sales tax on groceries especially during a time when inflation is hitting the pocketbooks of Illinois families.”

The cynical take would be that in a state with high taxes the Illinois governor wanted to paint the state in a good light by dropping the tax. Municipalities have limited options for filling the budget hole so they quickly move to adopt a local tax. The grocery shopper notices no change in taxes while the politicians debate who was more responsible.

I get the reaction from communities. They want a balanced budget each year and don’t want to have to cut services or acquire debt. Getting money from groceries is dependable money as people need to buy food.

At the same time, adding local taxes and fees can make residents angry. They already see the amount the federal and state governments take in each paycheck. Why do local governments charge for car registration and ask for more money for schools and keep coming up with new revenue ideas?

I wonder if this is also part of the larger issue of limited growth in Illinois. If communities were growing – adding residents, businesses, energy, status – this can cover up revenue issues. New growth leads to growing budgets with new tax money coming in. But if many communities in Illinois are growing slowly or not growing at all, this means stagnant budgets. Or worse, communities have to spend more to maintain older infrastructure that supported growth decades ago.

It may just be a grocery tax but the issues could be much larger.

Buying all the books needed for a new project is fun, time-consuming, and expensive

As I have embarked on new projects over the years, there is often a period of acquiring books and other sources. This often includes purchasing at least some of them as I find it very helpful to have them on hand in physical form to read and reference.

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As referenced in the title of this post, here are three themes regarding this process:

  1. I enjoy finding, receiving, and reading the books. This is all fun. I like books, I like doing research. The books have a practical end – they are there to help complete my writing – but I also enjoy knowing them and having them.
  2. Finding books can be time-consuming. Almost all books can be had. I have done a few projects where a few books are very hard to find, let alone get one’s hands on. You may need to consult multiple websites and search engines to try to find certain texts. (WorldCat can be helpful here as it can display how many libraries own items.)
  3. And almost all books can be had for a price. If one is working with a budget or does not want to spend more money, this complicates the search. And how long can one wait to see if there is a cheaper price.

In some ways, the process is common across projects. Budget time and money to find and acquire books and then enjoy having and using them. At the same time, the particulars of finding and using books can vary quite a bit within and across projects.

Education the biggest recipient of local property and IL state taxes

I recently received the breakdowns of where tax dollars for the State of Illinois and DuPage County went in 2024:

In both cases, education leads the way. For state expenditures, education accounts for 24.8% of spending. At the local level, education accounts for 69.4% of the total rate.

The large portions going to education are supported by multiple interests of residents:

  1. Education is often pitched as for children, the next generation, and the future. If we do not spend on education today, how will the children succeed and/or do better than the previous generation?
  2. The quality of local schools is often tied to housing prices and the status of communities. To not spend locally on schools might provide short-term savings but reduce the desirability of properties and communities in the long-term.
  3. The bulk of education costs is in salaries for teachers and staff. Without quality educators, how can schools be successful?

Some might complain about the tax burden – and Illinois does have high property taxes – but it is hard to argue against spending on education. It could be more effective to reign in spending by targeting other areas where there is duplication of local services (such as townships).

The era of the American $1 million starter home – in some locations

A new Zillow report suggests entry-level homes are quite expensive in some locations:

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The Zillow analysis found that the typical “starter home” was worth at least $1 million in 233 cities as of March. That’s a huge jump from five years ago, when just 85 cities had million-dollar starter homes.

This is quite different than the average starter home home price across the country:

Nationally, the typical starter home is still relatively affordable at $192,514, but Zillow’s findings underscore just how dramatically prices have surged in many areas since the pandemic.

The real estate website defined starter homes as those in the lowest third of home values within a region.

The expensive starter homes tend to be in certain regions:

The New York City metro area, which includes parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, led all metros with 48 cities where a typical starter home costs $1 million or more, according to Zillow.

The San Francisco metro had the next-highest count at 43, followed by Los Angeles (34), San Jose, Calif. (16), Miami (8) and Seattle (8). 

Put differently: any homes, including the cheapest ones, are very expensive in the most expensive markets. Starter homes in much of the rest of the country are not as expensive (this does not necessarily mean they are affordable but they are not at the price level of these expensive metro areas).

So if someone wanted to tackle this problem, it seems like it is a matter for these particular regions. They struggle to build affordable housing or even reasonably priced housing. They have particular local politics that make it difficult to construct more residential units. They are attractive places because of jobs and cultural amenities but they do not have the housing to keep up with the demand.

Crosses on churches vs. the popularity of cross necklaces

I found crosses on church buildings and online profiles are somewhat common but why bother with building architecture when cross necklaces are trending?

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As a millenniums-old symbol of Christian faith, the cross would seem somewhat immune to trendiness. But cross necklaces and pendants have been in vogue before and may be again as some feel more comfortable embracing their faith and seek community with others.

On red carpets, on social media, at protests by high-ranking Democrats and in the White House, necklaces with cross pendants are appearing with renewed prevalence. Chappell Roan wore an oversize one to the MTV Video Music Awards in September, and one dangled from Sabrina Carpenter’s neck in the music video for her single “Please Please Please.” The trendy online store Ssense sells them in nearly 50 variations, and mainstream jewelers like Kendra Scott and Zales carry numerous designs.

Lately, the cross necklaces flash across cable news screens several times a week, suspended between the collarbones of Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, and Attorney General Pam Bondi…

Over centuries, the cross evolved as a signpost of the moral compass one shares with fellow Christians and a kind of talisman with deeply personal significance. “They have an official meaning but people bring their own meaning, which is where symbols really get their power,” said Mr. Covolo, 58, who in 2020 published a book about the link between Christianity and fashion.

The article suggests two primary reasons for more worn crosses: (1) strengthening/expressing one’s own faith and (2) identifying with religious communities. This speaks to two important elements of religious faith: knowing and living out one’s one faith and participating in community with others.

At the same time, this seems like it is part of the larger pattern of individualizing or privatizing faith in the United States. The individual makes choices regarding their faith and practice. They choose to display it or not. They pick a level of involvement that works for them and their stage in life. A necklace or pendant can be added and taken off. (This might be contrasted to religious tattoos, for example, that are more permanent.)

This all makes sense in a religious marketplace where the consumer is the key actor. Crosses on church buildings or online profiles could function in similar ways: religious communities have to brand themselves as a cross is a known marker of the Christian brand.

Would cross necklaces and pendants be something different in societies with other settings?

“Visiting…is a spiritual experience” in what used to be a church

An article about visiting Hagia Sophia in Istanbul begins this way:

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Whether you’re a believer or not, visiting Hagia Sophia is a spiritual experience. The architectural genius of this place of worship — which was built as a church in 537CE before its conversion into a mosque in 1453 — creates an illusion of vastness. It feels like the space starts to expand when you enter the building.

I bet the builders of the church intended for this to be the case: being in the religious space was to be “a spiritual experience.” I was struck by the contrast of this versus what people today might experiences in religious buildings. Not many religious buildings can come close to the scale or the history of Hagia Sophia yet how many of them regularly help produce a spiritual experience for visitors?

Many congregations have moved away from architecture and design that could prompt a spiritual experience. Perhaps they want to have a space that can serve multiple functions. Perhaps they have limited resources and so are renting a building. Perhaps they believe architecture and art distracts from the true goals of gathering together. Perhaps they utilize modern styles which not everyone interprets as spiritual.

Having co-authored a book about religious buildings, I also find the idea that one could have a variety of or no religious beliefs and still have a spiritual experience in this building interesting. Is this because it fits some template of what religious buildings could be or because of its particular architecture or its history? The building connects with human needs and aspirations? That a building could produce such emotions is worth considering further through study and experience.

Is mass transit best pitched to Americans through comparisons to places where it is plentiful and works well?

Many Americans and American communities have resisted using mass transit or devoting more money to mass transit. In reading a recent pitch for Americans to prioritize it more, I was struck by one line of argument: describing places where it worked well. Might this help convince people?

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The discussions of the possibilities and perils of mass transit in the Chicago region included these comparisons. First, a contrast to another American city:

One of my stepdaughters recently relocated to Atlanta and returns home with a greater appreciation of our transit system.

A sprawling region like Atlanta can highlight how places with more transit in place – like Chicago – are appealing.

Second, comparisons to other major cities shows how far Chicago and other American cities can go:

“My wife had to go to Japan for work earlier this year. She was blown away that the train was 20 seconds behind schedule and how effusively the people apologized for it. I’m like 20 seconds?” Buckner said.

On vacations, Buckner subjects family to his transit nerdiness. Istanbul’s train terminal has a library inside. London has one of the best in the world. Beijing’s rapid transit is top-tier. Paris’ is fantastic. Seamless, quick and clean.

There are all world-class cities, like Chicago. If have efficient and elegant mass transit, why shouldn’t Chicago?

One issue might be whether a sufficient number of Chicagoans have been to these places. How many have gone to Atlanta, driven around the metro area, and found the traffic and experience worse than getting around Chicago? Or gone to Beijing or Paris and used the mass transit.

Another issue is that these comparisons may resonate and still pale to the issues of mass transit in Chicagoland or the liking people have for driving.

Overall, it appears to be hard to convince Americans to move away from driving. Whether they deeply like it or not, it is often the default after decades of policy decisions, cultural narratives, and choices made by numerous actors,