Category Archives: Sociology

Banks and “extend and pretend” for office properties

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With some companies and organizations falling behind on their commercial mortgages, some banks are waiting and looking for ways to get out of the loans:

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Some Wall Street banks, worried that landlords of vacant and struggling office buildings won’t be able to pay off their mortgages, have begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses…

But these steps indicate a grudging acceptance by some lenders that the banking industry’s strategy of “extend and pretend” is running out of steam, and that many property owners — especially owners of office buildings — are going to default on mortgages. That means big losses for lenders are inevitable and bank earnings will suffer.

Banks regularly “extend” the time that struggling property owners have to find rent-paying tenants for their half-empty office buildings, and “pretend” that the extensions will allow landlords to get their finances in order. Lenders also have avoided pushing property owners to renegotiate expiring loans, given today’s much higher interest rates.

But banks are acting in self-interest rather than out of pity for borrowers. Once a bank forecloses on a delinquent borrower, it faces the prospect of a theoretical loss turning into a real loss. A similar thing happens when a bank sells a delinquent loan at a substantial discount to the balance owed. In the bank’s calculus, though, taking a loss now is still better than risking a deeper hit should the situation deteriorate in the future.

Four questions come to mind:

  1. How long will banks wait before aggressively working to drop these loans? It sounds like this is happening a little bit. Is there a possible tipping point? In other words, how much “extend and pretend” is doable?
  2. How much does this behavior toward commercial tenants reflect how the same lenders or other banks treat residential loan holders? If a homeowner is not making their mortgage payments, do they get treated the same? Is the issue more of the size of these loans and not necessarily what kinds of properties are involved?
  3. Given the foreclosure crisis of the late 2000s and the COVID-19 pandemic, is it safe to assume there are plans in place if banks need to move a lot of these loans at once? Who would benefit the most from aid to get out from under a lot of commercial property losses in a short amount of time?
  4. What happens to these vacant properties in the short and long-term? How quickly can they be filled by other uses? How do these vacancies affect the communities in which they are situated?

Trying to make the American “feeling economy” measurable and efficient

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Sociologist Allison Pugh suggests we are heading toward a “feeling economy” with measurement:

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Erin is one of millions, from teachers to therapists to managers to hairdressers, whose work relies on relationship. By some accounts, the U.S. is moving from a “thinking economy” to a “feeling economy,” as many deploy their emotional antennae to bear witness and reflect back what they understand so that clients, patients, and students feel seen. I’ve come to call this work “connective labor,” and the connections it forges matter. It can be profoundly meaningful for the people involved, and it has demonstrable effects: We know that doctor–patient relationships, for instance, are more effective than a daily aspirin to ward off heart attacks.

But this work is increasingly being subjected to new systems that try to render it more efficient, measurable, and reproducible. At best, firms implement these systems assuming that such interventions will not get in the way of workers and clients connecting. At worst, they ignore or dismiss those connections altogether. Even these complex interpersonal jobs are facing efforts to gather information and assessment data and to introduce technology. Moneyball has come for connective labor…

Connective labor is increasingly being subjected to new systems that try to make it more predictable, measurable, efficient—and reproducible. If we continue to prioritize efficiency over relationship, we degrade jobs that have the potential to forge profound meaning between people and, along the way, make them more susceptible to automation and A.I., creating a new kind of haves and have-nots: those divided by access to other people’s attention.

To quantify relationships could be difficult in itself. It requires attaching measurements to human connections. Some of these features are easier to capture than others. In today’s world, if a conversation or interaction or relationship happens without “proof,” is it real? This proof could come in many forms. A social media post. A digital picture taken. Activity recorded by a smart watch. An activity log written by hand or captured by a computer.

Then to scale relationships is another matter. A one to one connection multiplied dozens of time throughout a day or hundreds or thousands of times across a longer span presents other difficulties. How many relationships can one have? How much time should each interaction take? Are there regular metrics to meet? What if the relationship or interaction goes a less predictable direction, particularly when it might require more time and care?

Given what we can measure and track now and the scale of society today, the urge to measure relationships will likely continue. Whether people and employees push back more strongly against the quest to quantify and be efficient remains to be seen.

The difficulty of measuring pain

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How should medical providers measure pain?

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The concept of reducing these shades of pain to a single number dates back to the 1970s. But the zero-to-10 scale is ubiquitous today because of what was called a “pain revolution” in the ’90s, when intense new attention to addressing pain—primarily with opioids—was framed as progress. Doctors today have a fuller understanding that they can (and should) think about treating pain, as well as the terrible consequences of prescribing opioids so readily. What they are learning only now is how to better measure pain and treat its many forms.

About 30 years ago, physicians who championed the use of opioids gave robust new life to what had been a niche speciality: pain management. They started pushing the idea that pain should be measured at every appointment as a “fifth vital sign.” The American Pain Society went as far as copyrighting the phrase. But unlike the other vital signs—blood pressure, temperature, heart rate, and breathing rate—pain had no objective scale. How to measure the unmeasurable? The society encouraged doctors and nurses to use the zero-to-10 rating system. Around that time, the FDA approved OxyContin, a slow-release opioid painkiller made by Purdue Pharma. The drugmaker itself encouraged doctors to routinely record and treat pain, and aggressively marketed opioids as an obvious solution…

But this approach to pain management had clear drawbacks. Studies accumulated showing that measuring patients’ pain didn’t result in better pain control. Doctors showed little interest in or didn’t know how to respond to the recorded answer. And patients’ satisfaction with their doctor’s discussion of pain didn’t necessarily mean they got adequate treatment. At the same time, the drugs were fueling the growing opioid epidemic. Research showed that an estimated 3 to 19 percent of people who get a prescription for pain medication from a doctor developed an addiction…

A zero-to-10 scale may make sense in certain situations, such as when a nurse uses it to adjust a medication dose for a patient hospitalized after surgery or an accident. And researchers and pain specialists have tried to create better rating tools—dozens, in fact, none of which was adequate to capture pain’s complexity, a European panel of experts concluded. The Veterans Health Administration, for instance, created one that had supplemental questions and visual prompts: A rating of 5 correlated with a frown and a pain level that “interrupts some activities.” The survey took much longer to administer and produced results that were no better than the zero-to-10 system. By the 2010s, many medical organizations, including the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Family Physicians, were rejecting not just the zero-to-10 scale but the entire notion that pain could be meaningfully self-reported numerically by a patient.

Measurement in many areas is not an easy process. There appear to be multiple complicating factors in this situation: pain perception can differ across patients; people are self-reporting pain; reports of pain are tied to particular medical options; doctors, nurses, and others are interpreting reports of pain; and there are numerous ways this could be measured.

If measurement is so difficult, what else could be done? I would guess people will continue to look for accurate measurement tools. Having such tools could prove very beneficial (and perhaps profitable?). It could also hint at the need for relational holistic care where a point-in-time report of pain is understood within a longer-term understanding between patient and provider. And greater scientific understanding of pain – and managing it – could help.

In the meantime, imprecise measurement of pain will continue. Should this affect how we answer the 0-10 question when asked?

Build a Samsung semiconductor plant in a small town 29 miles from Austin and what could change?

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One town on the edges of the Austin, Texas metropolitan region could be in for change:

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The tech giant is opening ‘the largest semiconductor manufacturing complex in America’ in Taylor, near Austin, bringing thousands of jobs and billions in investment to the area. 

Taylor is currently a small, quiet city with just 16,000 residents, but that is set to change.

Mayor Brandt Rydell told KVUE: ‘From 2020 to 2030, Taylor will be one of the most rapidly growing cities in Texas, if not the nation.’ 

The average house price is just $298,000, but with the plant expected to open later this year, house prices could rise as more luxury properties are built. 

The main focus in this article is the expected rise in housing values with some discussion of jobs and economic development. What else might change?

  1. Higher status. Not all suburbs have a major Samsung plant.
  2. More traffic. This includes employees traveling to and from the plant as well as supplies and products moving in and out.
  3. New civic service and local revenue issues to confront. How will the community spend new tax monies that come in? What services will the plant and its operations require?
  4. A larger population. Do some long-time residents dislike the changes? Does new development alter the character of the community?
  5. Will the arrival of Samsung lead to other businesses moving to town? Or support businesses (where will all those plant employees spend their money)?

In other words, come back to Taylor in ten years and it might look and feel different.

Three thoughts on pop/rock music about the suburbs

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I enjoyed thinking this week about pop and rock music about the suburbs. As I considered the music of Malvina Reynolds, the Beatles, Ben Folds, Arcade Fire, and Olivia Rodrigo, several thoughts come to mind:

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  1. These genres do not often write directly about the suburbs. They may tell stories about people and situations based in suburbia but the role of suburban places is minimized. Many popular songs do not say anything about where they take place geographically.
  2. Finding songs that portray suburbia in a positive light is difficult. Surely they exist. Perhaps they do not become as well-known? Perhaps music artists tend to associate suburbia with negative traits? Perhaps other genres do this differently?
  3. At the same time, there is plenty about suburban life that could make for compelling music. Millions of Americans, including many musicians, have experience this life. The songs profiled this week included looks at houses, daily routines, remembering childhood, listening to music, driving, and relationships. For all the reasons Americans love suburbs, why not tackle those themes? (I realize it might be hard to write about suburban local government but I am guessing it could be – and probably already has – been done.)

I will keep listening for music that references and is about specific places. This includes the suburbs but also cities and rural areas as place could be a fascinating topic for a new single or album or bonus track.

Ben Folds and “Rockin’ the Suburbs”

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In 2001, Ben Folds released an album and song with the same name critiquing suburban life. From the chorus of “Rockin’ the Suburbs“:

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I’m rockin’ the suburbs
Just like Michael Jackson did
I’m rockin’ the suburbs
Except that he was talented

The song pokes fun at “being male, middle-class, and white” as the protagonist angrily goes through life. Folds highlights one group of suburbanites – what would he do with the increasingly complex suburbia?

Folds suggested the song was done in the style of two groups popular at the time:

The song parodies Korn and Rage Against the Machine. Folds stated of the song “I am taking the piss out of the whole scene, especially the followers.”[1]

This reminds me of a sidewalk square nearby in suburbia that immortalizes “Korn.” Both groups provided music and lyrics that could be used to express discontent about a suburban America.

Arcade Fire and recalling growing up in the suburbs

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In 2010, Arcade Fire released the single “The Suburbs” which shared the same name as their third album. This song references growing up in the suburbs – here is what is in verse two:

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The kids want to be so hard
But in my dreams, we’re still screaming
And running through the yard
And all of the walls that they built in the seventies finally fall
And all of the houses they built in the seventies finally fall
Meant nothing at all
Meant nothing at all, it meant nothing

By the early 2000s, millions of Americans had grown up in suburbs. What was that childhood like? How could it be put into music?

Whether related to their artistry or their view of the suburbs decades later, The Suburbs may be the most decorated music album about suburbia:

The album debuted at No. 1 on the Irish Albums Chart, the UK Albums Chart, the US Billboard 200 chart,[4] and the Canadian Albums Chart.[5] It won Album of the Year at the 2011 Grammy Awards, Best International Album at the 2011 BRIT Awards, Album of the Year at the 2011 Juno Awards, and the 2011 Polaris Music Prize for best Canadian album. Two weeks after winning Grammy’s Album of the Year, the album jumped from No. 52 to No. 12 on the Billboard 200, the album’s highest ranking since August 2010.[6]

One interesting note: the group is Canadian but The Suburbs is based on growing up outside of Houston. How does this mixing of experiences change their interpretation of suburbia?

Folk music about the “little boxes” of suburbia

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The folk song “Little Boxes” written by Malvina Reynolds in 1962 and popularized by a Pete Seeger recording released in 1963 captured some of the concerns about growing suburbs in the United States. The first verse speaks to the song’s message:

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Little boxes on the hillside
Little boxes made of ticky tacky
Little boxes on the hillside
Little boxes all the same

The rest of the song then describes the people who live in these homes and the ways they follow the same paths.

This song borrows the imagery of new suburban construction – a lot of similar looking homes (“little boxes”) emerging out of open spaces outside cities – to argue the communities and people within are falling into patterns of conformity. This was a common argument in the 1950s and 1960s: suburbanites thought they were achieving the American Dream but they were really getting a dull and common life. Instead of becoming individuals or households that had made it, they were sold a bill of goods.

Even as Seeger’s song became a hit (reaching #70 on the charts), many Americans did not appear to be swayed by this song. They continued to move to the suburbs in large numbers for subsequent decades. Perhaps they might even admit there is conformity in the suburbs in the houses and social life – and they might be okay with that.

The Beatles on Penny Lane and the Liverpool suburbs

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In their 1967 single “Penny Lane,” the Beatles described life on a suburban street. The word “suburban” comes up in the first chorus and the last choruses in the song:

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Penny Lane is in my ears and in my eyes
Wet beneath the blue suburban skies
I sit and meanwhile back in

What suburbia were they thinking about? Here is a discussion of the street from Wikipedia:

Penny Lane is a road in the south Liverpool suburb of Mossley Hill. The name also applies to the area surrounding its junction with Smithdown Road and Allerton Road, and to the roundabout at Smithdown Place that was the location for a major bus terminus, originally an important tram junction of Liverpool Corporation Tramways.[8] The roundabout was a frequent stopping place for John Lennon, Paul McCartney and George Harrison during their years as schoolchildren and students.[8] Bus journeys via Penny Lane and the area itself subsequently became familiar elements in the early years of the Lennon–McCartney songwriting partnership.[9]

This area just a few minutes from downtown Liverpool is not quite the sprawling suburbia of the United States. It might be akin to a residential neighborhood in a major American city or part of an inner-ring suburb. Yet it invokes some similar sentiments with its emphasis on everyday life, blue skies, and upbeat music.

Outside of this one song, the Beatles do not say much about suburbs. They discuss other places – see this video here – but the growing suburbs of the United States and other places do not draw much attention. Their childhood experiences in the Liverpool suburbs live on as one contribution to popular music about suburbs.

Olivia Rodrigo and driving through the American suburbs

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In the first single she released, Olivia Rodrigo describes driving in the suburbs three times:

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But today I drove through the suburbs / Cryin’ ’cause you weren’t around

Yeah, today I drove through the suburbs / ‘Cause how could I ever love someone else?

Today I drove through the suburbs / And pictured I was driving home to you

These lyrics put together some themes about the American suburbs. The need to drive around as this is the preferred and often only mode of transportation in sprawling areas. The expectation of living in a suburban house or living in suburban settings as a couple or family. And being a teenager in the American suburbs with the ability to focus on relationships and driving, amid everything else that is going on in the world.