Could a community be green and have a lot of McMansions?

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An Australian community is moving to become a garden city even as there is a demand for teardown McMansions:

The Monash Urban Landscape and Canopy Vegetation Draft Strategy suggests increasing canopy cover in Monash from 22 to 30 per cent by 2040.

Councillor Geoff Lake, who submitted amendments to the plan, said the people of Monash felt strongly about vegetation protection overlays…

“In particular, concerns related to overdevelopment on blocks where the site is razed to build a ‘McMansion’ and vegetation is not retained or replaced,” Cr Paterson said.

She said the council acknowledged that people valued the green character of Monash.

While it sounds like the vegetation plan is partly in response to teardowns, it could lead to an interesting scenario: a community that is both green and has a number of McMansions. The two are often assumed to not be compatible. McMansions are viewed as wasteful, whether because they are part of sprawling settings or provide unnecessary amounts of private space or use mass-produced materials. Garden cities, in contrast, feature plenty of green space alongside greener housing.

I have hinted at this in earlier posts: could we reach a point where McMansions are compatible with green settings? Imagine big homes with garish architecture that are built with eco-friendly materials and in settings that limit some of the worst features of sprawl. I suspect it may be difficult to convince McMansion critics that such homes could ever be green but given the public’s interest in such homes plus the ability to brand numerous products as green, the day where we have green McMansions may indeed come.

Historical irony: Naperville magazine suggests “discover Hinsdale”

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Naperville’s size, wealth, accolades, and amenities make it a suburban behemoth outside of Chicago. Yet, when Naperville Magazine features in its current issue the story titled “Discover Hinsdale” (see the cover image below), it is a reversal of history regarding which community was more desirable.

NapervilleMagazineSep17

Naperville was founded first in the early 1830s though Hinsdale was not far behind (and the community was originally known as Brush Hill and then Fullersburg). The two communities share a rail line in and out of Chicago, originally the Chicago, Burlington, & Quincy, which opened in the mid-1860s. While the two communities were similar in size until the postwar era, Hinsdale was the wealthier town. It had a hospital. It attracted executives as residents. It was at the eastern edge of DuPage County and just 15 miles from downtown Chicago. Naperville, in contrast, was seen more of a farm community, there wasn’t much development between it and Aurora (and little at all to the south or southwest), and it had lost some luster after losing the county seat to Wheaton in 1867.

Long-time Naperville resident and real estate agent described the relationship between the two suburbs in Is it Eden? Is it Camelot? It is Paradise? Better yet…It’s Naperville.

I discovered an overlooked “fact of life” one Saturday afternoon when a well-dressed, house-hunting couple entered our office. Both were quite disappointed to learn that our town had no tree-lined street full of gracious, period-type houses built in the 1920’s and 30’s, the likes of which they could find in some affluent suburbs east of us. They were also shocked to find we had so little “speculative” building and that our listings were generally of very old homes. The wife then made a biting comment that raised the hairs on my neck. She said, “Did you know that Naperville is rated a class ‘C’ town in some Hinsdale real estate offices?” “What in the world do you  mean!” I sputtered through clenched teeth. “Oh, don’t get made,” she replied, “Just in the area of ‘income per capita’.” “What in the world do you mean!” I sputtered through clenched teeth. “Oh, don’t get made,” she replied, “Just in the area of ‘income per capita’.” Well, Hal, I admit that I was truly deflated. Deflated because, even though it seemed such a minuscule area to me in light of all of Naperville’s ENDURING values, it was a fact of life, and there would be more people of this bent for us to deal with in the future. Hinsdale today is probably still the “class” community of the western suburbs. Time, effort and planning have earned it its reputation. Housing costs in Hinsdale are, on average, 30% higher than in Naperville. However, by now we must have about caught up in “income per capita”. I would (secretly) like to challenge Hinsdale to a rating battle based on “percent of residents with advanced college degrees.” Maybe then I might be able to walk into a realty office in their town and square a long-remembered rebuke by saying, “Did you know that in Naperville, some real estate offices rate Hinsdale a Class ‘B’ community?” I wonder if they’d squirm a little, as I did?” (“Dear Hal” column, Aug 28, 1981, The Naperville Sun)

A later story:

For as long as I can recall, having a Hinsdale (Ill.) residence address had the same effect on others as did the car, wristwatch, or college on attended – it “made a statement.” Aesthetic Hinsdale, with a population of only 17,000, has the highest income per capita of any community in DuPage County… ((“Dear Hal” column, May 17, 1981, The Naperville Sun)

The Naperville Magazine piece is similar to many you can find in suburban magazines. Here is the primary text that then leads to a list of attractions:

Just about halfway between Naperville and Chicago you’ll find the village of Hinsdale, known for its stop-and-stare-worthy homes along tree-shaded streets and a cute, compact downtown lined with shops and restaurants. Though the abundance of women’s clothing boutiques and pampering salons make it a popular destination for a ladies’ day out—no question—there’s a little bit of something for everyone in Hinsdale.

Hinsdale is now the quaint and wealthy suburb to visit. There are upscale restaurants and shops to explore as well as a few historical sites. The community is still wealthy and on average has higher incomes and housing values than Naperville. The teardown phenomenon seems to have begun earlier in Hinsdale in the 1980s before spreading to Naperville (according to several late-1980s columns by Herb Matter). Local celebrities seem to live more in Hinsdale than Naperville.

Yet, Naperville is the more vibrant place. It is clearly bigger. The downtown is more lively. Hinsdale is older money, Naperville more emblematic of the late-twentieth boom among the white-collar and educated.

More (pricey) senior housing units in the (expensive) city

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Several developers are constructing luxury senior housing in Manhattan and trying to tap a new market:

Senior housing has traditionally been suburban-focused because land is so much cheaper outside cities, and developers hadn’t seen a big enough market to justify paying more, and charging more, for urban locations near transportation and nightlife, Knott said. The aging members of the massive baby-boom generation helped change their minds. Now, he said, many living in cities have the means to pay a premium to remain in familiar environments.

And many will need special care. In New York state alone, about 460,000 residents aged 65 and older are expected to be living with Alzheimer’s-related dementia in 2025, some 18 percent more than there are today, according to the Alzheimer’s Association.

To serve the wealthiest of them, senior-housing developers are taking cues from their tony-apartment building counterparts and putting extra emphasis on finishes and flourishes, to make their facilities look like the places residents left behind…

It is, of course, a rather small group of any age or mental ability that can handle the monthly rents these kinds of places will command. They’ll start at $12,000 at the complex that Maplewood Senior Living and Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. are putting up on Second Avenue and 93rd Street. Some will top more than $20,000 at the building Welltower Inc. and Hines are about to break ground for on the corner of 56th Street and Lexington Avenue.

The top 10% ages as well.

If this catches on, will it make it even harder to construct senior housing for average Americans (those who lived as adults around the median household income)?

I had a somewhat radical thought: many community leaders suggest that their residents should be able to age in their community, if they so desire. Would it be possible to set aside plots of land to be used for senior housing? The community would not necessarily have to designate what kind of housing is placed there but setting aside or zoning certain land might take away some of the market-rate pressure for land. Communities and developers regularly do this for other important uses such as parks or schools. Why not get out ahead of the aging population and make a tangible contribution to allowing senior residents to stay?

Could you build a hurricane, tornado, flooding, blizzard resistant McMansion?

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With the number of single-family homes damaged by Hurricane Harvey in Texas, could you design a McMansion that could stand up to natural disasters? Here are a few factors that might affect whether this is possible:

  1. One of the advantages of McMansions for builders is that they are often constructed on a mass scale. Any changes to construction could slow down the process.
  2. Related to #1, an increase in the materials needed or a slow down in the process would likely lead to an increased price. Compared to true mansions, McMansions are aimed at a broader segment of the housing market.
  3. Different disasters likely require different approaches. If the problem is tornados, say in Tornado Alley, you are trying to protect against winds whereas if the home is constructed in a flood plain or on a coast, the home could be built on stilts or piers to allow floodwaters to pass underneath.
  4. Many McMansions are constructed in suburban areas. No matter what you do to each house, it could be very difficult to protect against everything. For example, flooding is less an issue of each home being poorly constructed but rather a problem connected to land development on a broader scale.

Many McMansion builders or owners would not have to worry too much about major disasters. But imagine that someone develops “the Resilient McMansion.” Could this be worth pursuing in certain areas?

It is hard to find the “perfect home”

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A list of homebuying myths ends with this one:

Myth #6: You bought “the perfect home”

According to a survey by Nerdwallet, 49% of homebuyers had regrets about their home-buying process.

“There are regrets that you can live with and there are regrets that you really want to avoid,” Manni says. “It’s completely normal to regret not having enough space, but you don’t want to regret things like your mortgage or interest rate.”

Manni encourages homebuyers to do their research on home location and take the time to know your mortgage options to avoid feeling stuck down the line.

“Your dream home is not going to be ready and waiting for you — you’re going to have to look,” Manni says.

Regrets can be big or small and making such a large commitment – financially as well as in many other areas – can amplify such concerns. At the same time, what leads people to expect a perfect home in the first place?

A better way to approach this may be to uncover at which point homeowners turn from a twinge of regret to something that pushes them toward a new place to live. What is the tipping point?

Miniaturize yourself to afford a McMansion

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Here is a (fanciful) way to truly downsize and still acquire a McMansion:

Matt Damon stars as Paul Safranek, an overstretched man in an overstretched world, working as an occupational therapist down at Omaha Steaks and still living in the house where he was born. Paul hungers for a fresh start and finds it courtesy of the newfangled technique of “cellular miniaturisation”, which promptly shrinks the recipient to a height of five inches. This technique has apparently been pioneered by scientists out in Norway, although one might just as easily claim that Payne has been doing it for years. Films like Election, Sideways and Nebraska, for instance, spotlighted a burgeoning crisis in American masculinity, focusing on men who fear that they’re seen as small by the world. With the excellent Downsizing, Payne has simply gone that extra mile.

The benefits for Paul are clear from the outset. As a little man, he costs less and consumes less. His assets of $152,000 convert to a whopping $12m in the bonsai community of Leisureland Estates, which means that he can now afford a McMansion or a luxury bachelor pad, like one of those cash-poor Londoners who sells their Hackney flat and then buys up half of Rotherham. A flick of the switch and the process is complete. Afterwards the nurses return to theatre and lift the clients from their beds aboard small steel spatulas…

The point, of course, is that glass-domed Leisureland is merely America in microcosm, with all the same corruption and wealth-disparity, loneliness and strife. Neither does it exist in splendid isolation. If the outside world starts to burn, then Leisureland is all-but guaranteed to go down in flames too.

It sounds like the McMansion critics win in the end in this fantasy land.

Seriously though, wouldn’t many Americans want to say they had both downsized as well as acquired a sizable and well-appointed house? Here is how this could happen:

  1. Given the size of many new houses in recent years, people could downsize – lose 1,000+ square feet – and still have really large houses.
  2. Downsizing does not necessarily mean giving up amenities. What if someone gives up a large home for a smaller home but it has all the latest features or is located in the trendy neighborhood? Downsizing can be associated with trying to live a simpler life but this could be hard for many.

We’ll have to wait and see what those with the potential to downsize – largely Baby Boomers – actually do.

Replace Houston McMansions and sprawl with what?

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At least a few of the homes flooded in Houston are McMansions. For example, see this video of rescue efforts in one neighborhood where water is past the first floor of McMansions.

Once the waters recede, what will happen to these McMansions? Critics of such homes argue that they are often poorly built. Are they worth restoring and rebuilding or will homeowners pursue other options? What will communities approve and will they promote other options beyond big single-family homes?

Rarely do suburbs and big cities have opportunities to rethink past development decisions on a large scale. Houston is known for sprawl and a number of commentators (including me) have already suggested that such an approach often does not work well with flooding and water issues. Yet, overturning decades of sprawling suburban development is a difficult task and is likely even harder when residents just want to get back into their homes.

 

A new suburban Walmart comes with tax revenue, crime, and economic development

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How exactly does a new Walmart change a suburb? Here are at least a few factors to consider:

From its opening day to June 30, 2017, officers responded to 445 calls for service at Walmart, 166 of which resulted in arrests, according to records obtained by the Daily Herald. That means police were called to the store an average 1.2 times per day in its first year…

Walmart announced in 2012 its plans to close an East Dundee store and build the Carpentersville supercenter less than three miles away, prompting a lengthy legal battle between the company and the two villages. Walmart is expected to receive $4.3 million in tax increment financing funds ­– property taxes above a certain point in the area that would have gone to local governments — for the new store…

Though he declined to disclose specific sales numbers, Rooney said the new Carpentersville store has generated more sales tax revenue than East Dundee reported losing…

Already, the supercenter has significantly increased traffic and economic interest on the village’s east side, he said. Plans are moving forward for constructing a new five-tenant building and an O’Reilly Auto Parts on the store’s outlots.

To be honest, many suburbs cannot afford not to welcome Walmart into their communities. It is rare to find a user for a decent sized portion of land along a major road that will bring in so much tax revenue and provide jobs. The increase in crime can be chalked up as simply part of doing major retail business (I assume there may be bumps with other major retailers or shopping malls) and may not be a huge issue if it is largely isolated to the Walmart site.

In the long run, there are additional factors to consider including the local business climate with the behemoth Walmart in town (more competition for certain businesses), the opportunity cost of what else might have operated on that site, and the image of having a Walmart and related businesses. There is a reason more exclusive communities turn down big box stores and large strip mall areas. Furthermore, the fate of East Dundee could soon befell Carpentersville; if Walmart eventually wants a better deal or a bigger store, they can simply move and bring their benefits (and problems) to a different suburb.

As I suggested above, given these short-term and long-term outlooks, most American suburbs would choose to welcome Walmart. From whence the Walmart came does not matter while the tax receipts can be blinding to many.

“People care about flooding…they don’t care about stormwater management”

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An article discussing the difficulties of avoiding flooding in a sprawling city like Houston includes this summary of a key problem:

One problem is that people care about flooding, because it’s dramatic and catastrophic. They don’t care about stormwater management, which is where the real issue lies. Even if it takes weeks or months, after Harvey subsides, public interest will decay too. Debo notes that traffic policy is an easier urban planning problem for ordinary folk, because it happens every day.

It is difficult to get people interested in infrastructure that does not effect them daily or they do not see it. Yet, flooding is a regular issue in many cities and suburban areas and it can be very hard to remedy once development has already occurred. Indeed, it is difficult imagine abandoning full cities or major developments:

The hardest part of managing urban flooding is reconciling it with Americans’ insistence that they can and should be able to live, work, and play anywhere. Waterborne transit was a key driver of urban development, and it’s inevitable that cities have grown where flooding is prevalent. But there are some regions that just shouldn’t become cities.

Given the regularity of flooding in developed areas, it is interesting to consider that there are not more solutions available in the short-term. Portable and massive levees? Water gates that can be quickly installed? Superfast pumps that can remove water?

More remodeling, less moving, and uncertainty

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Another trend that is the result of the current housing market: fewer people are moving and more homeowners are remodeling what they already have.

Now, according to research, homeowners are eager to hold onto the ultra-low mortgage interest rates they were able to get after the crash, and they are leery about taking a chance on a move. Many also lack the financial wherewithal to upgrade to a larger, pricier home. They own houses that haven’t recovered enough of their value in the wake of the crash to generate the down payment needed to buy a new place.

The percentage of homeowners moving up to their next home is the lowest in 25 years, said Todd Tomalak, vice president of research for John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Instead of moving, people are deciding to make starter homes permanent and are expanding and repairing them for the long term, he said…

From 1987 to 2008, homebuyers stayed in their homes six years on average before selling, according to the National Association of Realtors. The number of years homeowners expected to stay in their homes started increasing during the housing plunge and has been at 15 years since 2010…

Last year, people spent about $320 billion on remodeling — a 5 percent increase over the previous year, Tomalak said. This year, they are expected to spend $350 billion — a 9 percent increase.

Interesting data yet there are some conflicting things going on here. This raises a few questions for me:

  1. If you aren’t moving soon, remodeling can make sense. At the same time, how does the remodeling square with homeowner’s interests in making money on their home? Many remodels do not recoup the money put into them – unless people are hoping that the tight market will keep housing values going up and up.
  2. Does the same animosity some have toward big box retailers like Walmart also carry over to Home Depot and similar stores? I know some things can vary tremendously from retailer to retailer – such as wages and benefits – but all big box stores have some similar effects including knocking out local businesses (who goes to the local hardware store for all their remodeling needs?) and contributing to an automobile culture with massive footprints on commercial stretches.
  3. On one hand, fewer people moving suggests the housing market is sluggish and this may not be good for the housing industry and the economy at large. On the other hand, people staying in the same house longer means they are more rooted in their communities (combats the critique of the soulless suburbs or the image of Americans just wanting to move up) and are avoiding senseless consumerism (just chewing up new house after new house). Is this an example where the consumer driven economy doesn’t really work in the long-run? (Or, maybe enough homeowners can be convinced that they need the newest item for their home – concrete countertops! wi-fi enabled refrigerators! – that the remodeling can pick up some of the slack.)