What could happen to American cities if a Yellowstone volcano erupts

Two scholars describe the possible lead-up to and the aftermath of a Yellowstone volcano eruption. Even as Yellowstone is fairly remote and nearby evacuation could take place if there are clear warning signs, such an eruption would affect bigger cities:

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Expanding gases and intense heat drive this material upwards, creating a vast eruption column rising 30–50 kilometres into the atmosphere – far above commercial passenger aircraft, which usually cruise at up to about 13 kilometres. On this clear morning, its upper reaches are visible from Denver, some 800 kilometres away…

As the magma continues to escape, sections of the unsupported ground subside, opening new fractures and vents while feeding further eruptive columns and pyroclastic density currents. Hundreds of kilometres away – in Denver and along the Canadian border – heavy ashfall darkens the sky, obstructs roads and disrupts power, water supplies and communications. This ash devastates farmland across at least eight states…

Within Wyoming and neighbouring states, conditions are catastrophic. Billings, Montana, the nearest large city, is disappearing beneath what will eventually exceed a metre of ash (one published model of a Yellowstone supereruption predicts the city as receiving up to 1.8 metres of ash). Salt Lake City, Utah, and Boise, Idaho, receive tens of centimetres. For southern Canada, much of the US and northern Mexico, day becomes twilight and breathing outdoors without masks becomes increasingly difficult. People on other continents watch in trepidation under vivid, red-orange sunrises and sunsets…

Large areas close to Yellowstone remain evacuated, while across the US, shelter, fuel, food and clean water become increasingly scarce. Some countries airlift or airdrop humanitarian relief supplies, but are also concerned about stockpiling for themselves. Losses to agriculture, transport and insurance – with many other businesses and services closed – could lead Canada, Mexico and most Caribbean and Central American countries to declare states of emergency. This is partly due to direct impacts on those countries and partly due disruption across the USA and people fleeing from it…

In the years following the eruption, the world moves into long-term recovery and rebuilding. People across the world adapt to a more agrarian lifestyle, learning to fill the land with root vegetables, grains and legumes. With far less leisure time and diminished income, recreational facilities are turned over to food production, notably small-scale greenhouses and vertical farming for producing varied fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes.

It sounds like an eruption would have a major impact on American cities. The focus in the analysis is on civilization more broadly but this often means big cities and their surrounding regions. If infrastructure (water, electricity, gas lines, roads, flights, etc.) and food supplies are severely disrupted, this knocks out some of the key supporters of current urban life. What exactly disappears or changes is less clear here but at the least it sounds like people and communities would need to spend a lot more time acquiring supplies and resources. This would disrupt work, school, local government plus day to day life.

What could realistically be done to prepare for this? Such events are rare. This reminds me of conversations about cities and resilience, the ability to respond effectively to whatever disaster might come. Whether a hurricane or a blizzard or an attack or a breakdown of a major system, cities likely have plans coordinate efforts and address needs.

It would still be hard for many residents of American metropolitan regions to imagine that a volcano far away could seriously disrupt their life. But affect the atmosphere on a global scale and urban and suburban life as we know it might not be the same.

Can popular TV shows lure new residents to a city?

Fort Worth, Texas is growing. Is this partly because TV viewers can see it on a set of popular shows?

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Mattie Parker, the mayor of Fort Worth, Texas, says a focus on crime, homelessness, parks and reliable infrastructure has positioned the city of 950,000 as an attractive alternative to Chicago, San Francisco and New York, which have struggled with perceptions of deteriorating safety in the aftermath of Covid-19.

The 39-year-old Republican, broadly considered to be a moderate in deep-red Texas, says that Fort Worth’s pitch to lure businesses highlights its roots (the city’s slogan is “Where the West Begins”) and small-town vibes, even if its stockyards are now more of a tourist draw than a genuine agricultural enterprise. The nostalgia for cattle ranching and cowboys generated by the hit television series Yellowstone and 1923 — created by Taylor Sheridan, who partly grew up in Fort Worth — are only adding to its allure.

“Fort Worth continues to be an incredibly unique city that is very proud of our Western heritage,” Parker said in an interview at City Hall, where a display case held shovels from groundbreaking ceremonies over the years. “And the timing couldn’t be better because of this fanfare and frenzy over Yellowstone and 1923.”

In Fort Worth, it’s common to see cowboy hats and boots paired with a tailored suit. Unlike nearby Dallas, which mostly feels like any other major metropolis, Fort Worth embraces its sense of place. There’s plenty of live country music, two-step dancing and Tex-Mex cuisine.

This is a long list of reasons for growth. Additionally, Fort Worth is part of the growing Sun Belt.

How much can depictions on a TV show contribute to this growth? Here is how Wikipedia describes the connections to Fort Worth that start with the TV show 1883, the earliest prequel for Yellowstone: “The series follows the post-Civil war generation of the Dutton family as they leave Tennessee, journey to Fort Worth, Texas, and join a wagon train undertaking the arduous journey west to Oregon (the Duttons are never on the actual Oregon Trail itself), before settling in Montana to establish what would eventually become the Yellowstone Ranch.”

I would be very interested in seeing some data regarding the connection between a popular television universe and population growth in a particular city. Are these shows also causing population growth in Montana? It makes sense for a local leader to make the connection to a show people like as it is always helpful to have good press.