Pollsters widely acknowledge the challenges and limitations taxing their craft. The universality of cellphones, the prevalence of the Internet and a growing reluctance among voters to respond to questions are “huge issues” confronting the field, said Ashley Koning, assistant director at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling…
“Not every poll,” Koning added, “is a poll worth reading.”
Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center, agreed. Placing too much trust in early surveys, when few voters are paying close attention and the candidate pools are their largest, “is asking more of a poll than what it can really do.”…
Kathryn Bowman, a public opinion specialist at the American Enterprise Institute, also downplayed the importance of early primary polls, saying they have “very little predictive value at this stage of the campaign.” Still, she said, the blame is widespread, lamenting the rise of pollsters who prioritize close races to gain coverage, journalists too eager to cover those results and news consumers who flock to those types of stories.
Given the reliance on data in today’s world, particularly in political campaigns, polls are unlikely to go away. But, there will be likely be changes in the future that might include:
- More consumers of polls, the media and potential voters, learn what exactly polls are saying and what they are not. Since the media seems to love polls and horse races, I’m not sure much will change in that realm. But, we need great numeracy among Americans to sort through all of these numbers.
- Continued efforts to improve methodology when it is harder to reach people and obtain representative samples and predict who will be voting.
- A consolidation of efforts by researchers and poling organizations as (a) some are knocked out by a string of bad results or high-profile wrong predictions and (b) groups try to pool their resources (money, knowledge, data) to improve their accuracy. Or, perhaps (c) polling will just become a partisan effort as more objective observers realize their efforts won’t be used correctly (see #1 above).