From outlier to outlier in unemployment data

With the responses to COVID-19, unemployment is expected to approach or hit a record high among recorded data:

April’s employment report, to be released Friday, will almost certainly show that the coronavirus pandemic inflicted the largest one-month blow to the U.S. labor market on record.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the new report will show that unemployment rose to 16.1% in April and that employers shed 22 million nonfarm payroll jobs—the equivalent of eliminating every job created in the past decade.

The losses in jobs would produce the highest unemployment rate since records began in 1948, eclipsing the 10.8% rate touched in late 1982 at the end of the double-dip recession early in President Reagan’s first term. The monthly number of jobs lost would be the biggest in records going back to 1939—far steeper than the 1.96 million jobs eliminated in September 1945, at the end of World War II.

But, also noteworthy is what these rapid changes follow:

Combined with the rise in unemployment and the loss of jobs in March, the new figures will underscore the labor market’s sharp reversal since February, when joblessness was at a half-century low of 3.5% and the country notched a record 113 straight months of job creation.

In other words, the United States has experienced both a record low in unemployment and a record high within three months. A few thoughts connected to this:

1. Either outlier is noteworthy; having them occur so close to each other is more unusual.

2. Their close occurrence makes it more difficult to ascertain what is “normal” unemployment for this period of history. The fallout of COVID-19 is unusual. But the 3.5% unemployment can also be considered unusual compared to historical data.

3. Given these two outliers, it might be relatively easy to dismiss either as aberrations. Yet, while people are living through the situations and the fallout, they cannot simply be dismissed. If unemployment now is around 16%, this requires attention even if historically this is a very unusual period.

4. With these two outliers, predicting the future regarding unemployment (and other social measures) is very difficult. Will the economy quickly restart in the United States and around the world? Will COVID-19 be largely under control within a few months or will there be new outbreaks for a longer period of time (and will governments and people react in the same ways)?

In sum, dealing with extreme data – outliers – is a difficult task for everyone.

One thought on “From outlier to outlier in unemployment data

  1. Pingback: Housing prices up during COVID-19 | Legally Sociable

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