Monthly Archives: October 2010

Many Americans not optimistic that their childrens’ lives will be better

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A recent Bloomberg poll asked Americans whether they felt the future would be better for their children. The results:

What optimism there is about the immediate future doesn’t carry over to the longer term. Pluralities of those polled say they’re not hopeful they will have enough money in retirement and expect they will have to keep working to make up the difference. More than 50 percent aren’t confident or are just somewhat confident their children will have better lives than they have.

This belief has been an important part of the American Dream for decades. American parents seem willing to sacrifice much for their children to help insure this. Americans are usually quite optimistic about the future and tend to believe American ingenuity and progress will lead the way.

A question I would like to ask on these surveys: would it be okay for your children to have the same quality of life as you have experienced? If not, why not?

(A note about the reporting: many numerical statistics from the survey are thrown out. However, there is little context. The author tries to throw in some commentary about how these statistics link up with what is going on in the country or with a few quotes but this doesn’t add much. Additionally, let’s break down the numbers a bit more: do they differ by gender, race, region, political party, etc.?)

Predicting the fastest growing American cities for the next 40 years

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Forbes has a new list of what they think will be the fastest growing cities in the United States in the next 40 years. Not surprisingly, the top 5 are all in the South and West. Perhaps surprisingly, these cities are “little big cities,” places that grown in the last few decades and are poised for new growth. Here are the top cities for growth: Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; Austin, Texas; Salt Lake City, Utah; San Antonio, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Forbes says they are using a different methodology to select these cities:

In developing this list we have focused on many criteria–affordability, ease of transport and doing business–that are often ignored on present and future “best places” lists. Yet ultimately it is these often mundane things, not grandiose projects or hyped revivals of small downtown districts, that drive talented people and companies to emerging places.

This methodology seems to emphasize “softer factors” like affordability and quality of life. I almost wish we could just fast forward forty years to see how accurate this is. What would others predict and what factors would they use?

But I can see some of the logic. These places offer some of the amenities of the big city and are vibrant places where things are happening. Couple this with affordable homes, some jobs, and less congestion and I could see how it is appealing. Additionally, 8 out of the top 10 are in the South and West – only Columbus, Ohio and Indianapolis, Indiana are outside these regions. It would make sense that the growing areas of the country are the places where these mid-sized cities are growing.

Determining the most valuable blogs

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The world before blogs may be difficult for many Internet users to remember. This list from 24/7 Wall Street lists the 25 most valuable blogs which was based on a number of factors including pageviews (as measured by multiple sources), revenue, and operating costs.

If you were looking for some insights into what is considered valuable on the Internet, take note that the top 10 are dominated by entertainment, news, and technology sites and the two news sites, the HuffingtonPost and the DrudgeReport, dabble in both news and entertainment.

An agent tells his story of paying college football players

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Former agent Josh Luchs talks to Sports Illustrated about paying college football players in the hopes that they would select him as their agent.

How many other stories like this are out there to be told? Are Division 1 college football and basketball, with all their various scandals (Reggie Bush being the latest major example), just a complete cesspool? And then the next question: how much do college and universities know about this and try to seriously deal with it?

Quick Review: Burma VJ

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The 2009 film Burma VJ provides an insider perspective of the troubles in Burma/Mynamar in 2008. A few thoughts about the film:

1. The movie is told from the perspective of a small group of video journalists. With some handicams (the sort of handheld camcorders you could buy for a few hundred dollars at Best Buy), these men were able to show the conditions in the country to the world, breaking the embargo on outside media put on by the military junta.

2. A quick overview of the story: when the government doubled gas prices in 2008, people responded in protest. When the Buddhist monks joined in, the protests gathered steam. As the people were gaining attention around the world, the military junta responded by arresting and beating up and killing at least one monk. The protests died out and once again, the people were left to suffer.

2a. I remember hearing about this on the news back in 2008 but sadly, I knew nothing of what had gone on.

3. One thing I have wondered about is the power of the Internet to do good. Does the Internet actually lead to better relationships between people, more knowledgeable citizens, and a more robust civil society? I am usually skeptical. But this film suggests good can come out of even a spotty Internet connection. The world’s major news networks were utterly dependent on these videojournalists. They were also able to depict the plight of the Burmese people with limited equipment and power. Although they were ultimately not successful in overthrowing the junta, they may have been close.

4. The Buddhist monks play a prominent role in this film. While the monks are not supposed to get involved in politics, they can react in defense of the oppressed people. When they join the people’s protests, the tide seems to turn against the government. This was a reminder of the ability of those with the moral high ground to produce change in society.

This was an interesting film that exposed both the plight of the Burmese people and the effect a small group of dedicated video journalists can have in a desperate situation.

Google measures inflation by looking at web data

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Once again drawing upon its access to  information, Google suggests it developing an alternative measure of inflation:

Google is using its vast database of web shopping data to construct the ‘Google Price Index’ – a daily measure of inflation that could one day provide an alternative to official statistics.

The work by Google’s chief economist, Hal Varian, highlights how economic data can be gathered far more rapidly using online sources. The official Consumer Price Index data are collected by hand from shops, and only published monthly with a time lag of several weeks…

The GPI shows a “pretty good correlation” with the CPI for goods such as cameras and watches that are often sold on the web, but less so for others, such as car parts, that are infrequently traded online.

This bears watching as Google can access data and then analyze/summarize it at a much quicker speed than the government. But it will be interesting to see how Google gets around the issue of what is being sold online – the story also notes that Google’s index downplays the role of housing.

This could play out in a number of ways. Could this online index be improved so that markets were responding to Google’s data rather than the government’s data? Let’s say the government decides it likes Google’s approach. Does it develop the same or a similar algorithm within the government? Does it contract the task to Google?

The ever-expanding trolley problem

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For those who study moral dilemmas, the trolley problem is a common hypothetical situation. But the trolley problem keeps expanding to gather more information on how we make choices in such situations: the trolley problem can now include a spur track or a Lazy Susan.

Additionally, there is an interesting discussion about the value of “trolleyology.”

Americans, upward mobility, elitism

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Anne Applebaum at Slate thinks about a common tactic in this election season: decrying “elites” or “elitism.” Why exactly are some political figures derided for taking advantage of America’s meritocracy?

Despite pushing aside the old WASP establishment—not a single WASP remains on the Supreme Court—these modern meritocrats are clearly not admired, or at least not for their upward mobility, by many Americans. On the contrary—and as Bell might have predicted—they are resented as “elitist.” Which is at some level strange. To study hard, to do well, to improve yourself—isn’t that the American dream? The backlash against graduates of “elite” universities seems particularly odd given that the most elite American universities have made the greatest effort to broaden their student bodies.

These ideas about elites and elitism do seem tied to particular colleges and settings, like Ivy League schools. Could a political candidate attack make an effective charge of elitism versus someone who had done really well with an advanced degree from a state school?

Another problem could be anti-intellectualism. Leaders who were able to work their way through top schools may be regarded differently than leaders who worked their way up through the business or political ladder. The intellectual is not as prized in America (think of the attention “public intellectuals” receive in American life compared to other groups of people) and may not be seen as the same kind of “self-made person.” Perhaps this could be tied into Bourdieu’s ideas about the differences among those with lots of capital: there is a split between those with educational capital and those with economic capital.

A word cloud as an accurate information graphic

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There are many ways to visually present data or statistics. One issue can arise when parts of graphs or images are not displayed in the correct proportions. Does using a word cloud fall into these difficulties?

Gallup has put together a word cloud of American’s perceptions about the federal government. Some phrases, such as “too big” and “corrupt” are much bigger. Some words are on their sides such as “good” and “terrible.”

Overall, I would say the word cloud is probably not the best choice in this situation. It is hard to judge the most popular responses and the relative proportions of each response. While one can quickly pick up that the majority of responses were negative, it is not a very precise graphic.

Classic Onion parody of family moving from the city to suburbs

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One of the classic headlines (2001) from The Onion: “Family of Five Found Alive in Suburbs.” A few bits from the story tracking a family that disappeared from Chicago and was found again years later in Buffalo Grove:

Rescuers discovered the five-person clan after a survey plane spotted a crude signal fire the family had created in a barbecue grill…

To protect themselves from the elements, the Holsapples fashioned a three-bedroom, ranch-style lean-to with brick facing and white aluminum siding. During their years on the acre-and-a-half lot, the Holsapples faced many hardships, including septic-tank backups, frequent ant infestation, and the threat of rezoning to erect an industrial park across the street.

“The Holsapples were in pretty bad shape when we found them lying lifelessly on their patio furniture,” paramedic Mary Gills said. “Their stomachs were bloated from years of soda and fast food, and they were all suffering from severe cultural malnutrition.”…

According to University of Illinois– Chicago anthropologist Dr. Arthur Cox, to survive such an emotionally, culturally, and spiritually barren place, the Holsapples were forced to “go native.”

“Much like those stranded in remote islands, the Holsapple family looked to the indigenous population to learn techniques for adaptation and survival,” Cox said. “Shocking as it is, one eventually becomes acclimated and then numbed to the theme restaurants, cinema multiplexes, and warehouse-sized grocery stores.

Interestingly, this is exactly the sort of story that opponents of suburbs might write: the family disappeared into a vast wasteland with no culture. The story contains a number of typical criticisms about suburbs: spiritually dead, no culture, out in the middle of nowhere (particularly when cities are considered to be the center of the universe), primitive life, mind-numbing, requiring the ability to shop and be entertained at garish facilities, and so on.

Of course, when it is written in this style, it all sounds quite funny.