Dead shopping malls and empty sound stages

Enough shopping malls are dead that other vacant properties can be compared to them. Take this question: “L.A. Sound Stages: The New Dead Mall?

Photo by tyler hendy on Pexels.com

So: When was the last time you were on a sound stage for a film or TV series? Even if you work in production, the answer is likely “not lately.” One well-known director recently told me that the last time they worked on the 15-stage Fox lot, their production was the only one active that day. And FilmLA’s recent sound stage report was bleak: Average stage occupancy plunged to 63 percent in 2024, down six points even from a strike-ridden 2023.

Compare that to 2016, when stages hummed along at 96 percent occupancy level, or the we-all-agree-it-was-a-bubble Peak TV year of 2022 when levels bounced back up to 90 percent during the post-pandemic recovery. Investors from Blackstone to TPG have stakes in sound stage properties, so it’s not just Hollywood worried about production. Just days ago, sound stage titan Hudson Pacific Properties — the Blackstone-backed owner of Sunset Bronson Studios, which is leased to Netflix — got hit with a credit rating cut. S&P Global called out the company’s “weakened studio business performance” and declining leased studio space, which dipped to 73.8 percent from 76.9 percent the year prior…

On a macro level, sound stages are in trouble — a reflection of the times. Production continues to be offshored to states and countries with more appealing tax incentives and cost structures, the correction from Peak TV means fewer series are being made, and the post-strike job market is still sluggish. While Gov. Gavin Newsom and others are pushing for a big new California tax credit plus other legislative moves to make filming here more accessible (#StayinLA), the industry is still reeling from a few years of blows, and some entertainment workers have left L.A. behind.

While the empty sound stages may be the result of specific issues in the TV and film industry, the comparison to shopping malls is particular interesting. Do we now just assume shopping malls are past their peak? That many of them are dead? That they are the exemplar of buildings that were once thriving but are empty now?

Vacant buildings are a problem for a number of industries and communities (see examples here and here). Empty buildings mean less work or activity is taking place. Empty buildings can lead to perception issues and ne’er-do-wells possibly causing problems. Empty buildings could lead to reduced tax revenues.

If shopping malls are the best comparison for these particular empty buildings, one lesson we might take: it will take years to figure out what to do with these properties. Will activity pick up in production again? Could there be temporary uses for these structures? If redevelopment is pursued by developers, do neighbors and communities want what might be there next?

Dead shopping malls could turn into zombie shopping malls: ones that slightly change form but stick around for years with limited activity and change. Whether sound stages follow a similar path remains to be seen.

Argument: New England neighborhoods attract movies because they have character and don’t have McMansions

A columnist in Swampscott, Massachusetts argues New England neighborhoods have a sense of place, don’t have many McMansions, and therefore attract filmmakers:

If you’ve ever traveled outside New England, you begin to notice that most of the rest of the country looks a lot alike. Rapid development on a budget lends itself to a landscape of boxy stores in strip malls and cookie cutter homes. Some of these cookie cutter homes are “McMansions,” and very nice to live in, but even so their exteriors are unmemorable, duplicated a million times over.

New England—Swampscott—looks different.  Neighborhoods have personalities. The roads curve in unpredictable ways.  Houses don’t all look alike. I happen to like the intricate purple paint on a certain home on Paradise Road, but we all have our favorites…

Yet there is true value in this difference.  Part of the reason that Massachusetts has attracted so many movies is because of our location—place matters.  Grown-Ups 2 is here because Swampscott looks like a typical New England town, and New England is a good brand, a marketable brand.

And crucial to the New England brand is a community’s willingness to embrace its historic past, to pay attention to its older buildings, and to, in short, care about the way something looks. A quick drive through the Olmstead District will remind all of us how lucky we are that the Mudges had the foresight to hire someone so talented to lay it out, that the town pays to upkeep the greens, and that the homeowners in the area now take such pride in their property.

New England does indeed have its own style and character though plenty of other places in the United States have historic preservation districts that are intended to save older buildings.

There is an interesting implication here that McMansions developed in places with less character. This would be intriguing to track: did the term first arise in Sunbelt locations or in more historic communities that felt threatened by new, big, mass produced homes?

I also wonder how many movies actually do film in New England compared to other locations. According to the Massachusetts Film Office, five films are in production or have recently finished filming. Like many other places, Massachusetts offers incentives for filmmakers:

Massachusetts provides filmmakers with a highly competitive package of tax incentives: a 25% production credit, a 25% payroll credit, and a sales tax exemption.

Any project that spends more than $50,000 in Massachusetts qualifies for the payroll credit and sales tax exemption. Spending more than 50% of total budget or filming at least 50% of the principal photography days in Massachusetts makes the project eligible for the production credit.

The results of incentives for movie production

Michigan Avenue has been a battleground for several recent weekends as Transformers 3 filmed scenes. According to the Chicago Tribune, the producers were partly drawn by the financial incentives offered by the state of Illinois. Though the film will spend more than $20 million in six weeks in the local economy, the state will offer at least a $6 million tax credit.

Illinois is not the only state playing this game:

Illinois is among 45 jobs-hungry states tripping over each other to financially woo movies and television shows. About half, including Illinois, offer tax credits, which cut producers’ costs by tens of millions of dollars at the expense of state budgets.

The pool of rivals has doubled in the past four years, and the lures, for the most part, are getting fancier, with only a handful of states pulling back, either due to recessionary pressures or local scandals. A just-released study by the Milken Institute indicates that aggressive plays, by states as well as overseas locales, are cutting into California’s historical grip on the business.

The rest of the article contains arguments for and against such aggressive tax credits. Regardless, it seems that the tax credit game may become a race to the bottom where states eventually find there is little economic benefit to having filming in their backyard.

Even if the filming doesn’t bring in many jobs (as opposed to short-term work) or other lasting benefits, filming can certainly draw attention. The filming of Transformers 3 has attracted a lot of local media attention, perhaps raising the profile of Chicago and Michigan Avenue for viewers.