Suburban pattern #1 to watch in 2025: affordable housing

What will 2025 bring in the American suburbs? One thing I will be watching for are discussions of and actions regarding affordable housing.

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Why this particular concern? We could start with a broad statement: there is a need for cheaper housing in many American metropolitan areas. The rise in housing prices in recent years has priced out many residents from quality housing or living near where they work or residing in places they want to. This is not just true in the most expensive urban areas like Manhattan or San Francisco; there is a need for housing in numerous suburban areas.

At the same time, affordable housing can mean different things in different communities and among different actors. Is affordable housing about providing broad housing opportunities to most people who could live in a region? Or is it for lower-income residents? Or is it for seniors? When suburbs discuss affordable housing, I think they have different populations in mind depending on the local history and context.

The last few decades demonstrated that affordable housing is not a concept many suburban communities welcome. It has particular connotations. It may be perceived as a threat to existing property values. It is for particular residents. Few American suburbanites seem to want to live adjacent to affordable housing, even if they are for the concept in general.

So what might happen in 2025? There surely will be discussions at the federal, state, and local levels about affordable housing. Different levels of government and different actors may want to use different levers to encourage affordable housing. What kind of carrots or sticks might be offered? The 2024 presidential campaigns had different thoughts. Could there be significant shifts either way in the next year? If Americans continue to be concerned about their own economic standing, the issue of housing prices will not go away. But who will act and what might they do?

Sanctifying Suburbia out early in 2025

I am looking forward to the release of my book Sanctifying Suburbia: How the Suburbs Became the Promised Land for American Evangelicals on January 14, 2025. Preorder at Oxford University Press and Amazon. Throughout the early part of this year I will be publishing posts about the argument of the book and its implications, surprising things I found while researching, and ongoing possibilities for analyzing religion and the suburbs.

Here is the description of the book:

The suburbs are home to the majority of Americans, including millions of evangelical Christians and thousands of evangelical congregations and organizations. And while American evangelicals are a potent force in society and politics, their connection to and embrace of the suburbs are rarely examined. How did white evangelicals come to see the suburbs as a promised land, home to the evangelical good life and to dense concentrations and networks of evangelical residents, churches big and small, and nonprofit organizations? This book systematically assesses how evangelicals became intertwined with the suburbs and what this means for evangelical life.

Brian Miller shows how evangelical views of race and ethnicity, social class, and gender led to anti-urban sentiment, white flight, and the pursuit of racial exclusivity-all of which has led evangelicals to make the suburbs their physical and spiritual home. At the same time, clusters of evangelical organizations were planting themselves in the suburbs, drawing evangelicals out of the cities. Through sociological analysis, case studies of multiple communities with clusters of evangelical residents, and examinations of evangelical culture, Miller shows that in order to fully understand American evangelicals we must take a deeper look at how evangelicals embraced suburbs and how the suburbs shaped them.

More to come.

What makes a suburban store “hyperlocal”?

Numerous independent stores operate within American suburbs. What might it mean if they pitch themselves as a “hyperlocal” store (heard on a recent advertisement)? A few possibilities come to mind:

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  1. The business is trying to emphasize that they are super local. If some brands or stores are global or national (think multinational corporations or national or regional chains), then other brands or stores are local or hyperlocal. This is not just local; it is really local or super local to emphasize that it is not national or global.
  2. The store offers goods or experiences only available in this one particular community. Perhaps the business connects with local themes, history, or spirit in ways that someone could not do if the store was in a different community. The store is hyperlocal because the stuff that can only be found there is connected closely to the suburb.
  3. Could this be a nod to hyperlinks? What if hyperlocal means that the store makes connections between local goods and themes? Or, going a different direction,
  4. The dictionary definition of hyperlocal is “limited to a very small geographical area.” This goes further than #1 above: the store serves not the suburb; it serves a smaller area within the suburb. The goods or experiences found therein serve a very particular place.

I am not sure what the store meant by describing themselves as “hyperlocal” but I find #1, #2, and #4 plausible. (The hyperlink/hyperlocal connection seems like a stretch.) If the goal was to stand out from other businesses that might say they are part of the community or serving the local community, hyperlocal might help.

Argument: construction and traffic on highways in Chicago leads to suburban growth

A Chicago Tribune editorial concerned with multiple years of construction on the Kennedy Expressway in Chicago ends with a claim that the traffic issues bolstered suburban businesses:

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Kennedy problems, or at least the perception thereof, certainly helped bolster a lot of the growth this past couple of years in suburban business districts like those in the likes of Naperville, Glencoe, Wheaton and Aurora, as suburbanites and exurbanites looked beyond Chicago to avoid the Kennedy at all costs.

Good for those suburbs for jumping on an opportunity. But Chicago got a “lanes closed, expect delays” warning for years — a handicap it most certainly did not need.

How might we know that this construction on a highway leading northwest out of Chicago boosted business in suburban areas (including several that are different directions from the Kennedy)? Some possibilities:

  1. A rise in the number of visitors or patrons in these suburban businesses and a decline in visitors or patrons in Chicago. These might not be causing each other but trends going different directions might be taken as evidence for this argument.
  2. Survey or interview data that suggests suburbanites factor in traffic in Chicago when making decisions about where to go. It might go something like this: “The drive into Chicago just takes too long…let’s go somewhere that is closer and easier to get to.” Anecdotal evidence might point in this direction but how often does this happen?
  3. Changes in commuter patterns and/or the presence of entertainment and business centers in the suburbs. As metropolitan areas have expanded, how many people find jobs, shopping, and cultural opportunities in other suburbs rather than in the big city? (This has happened already in American metropolitan regions but some Chicagoland specific data would be interesting.)
  4. Evidence of direct efforts from suburban communities or businesses to attract people by referencing the issues present in going to Chicago. For example, do any suburban downtowns tell people they do not need to go to Chicago to find X? Or do businesses make this argument? Or suburban shopping malls?

The gang nail plate and McMansions

I have seen gang nail plates before but did not know their name nor consider their possible contribution to the rise of McMansions:

The more that I think about it, the more that I come to believe that this invention is responsible for the suburbs as we know it. This unassuming little piece of metal, it’s called a gang nail plate or a truss plate, and its job is to affix pieces of wood together at their joints.

What’s really unique about it though is that it can securely connect wood members positioned at almost any angle. With the aid of these plates houses made of standard 2×4 studs can have open floor plans, cathedral ceilings, and complicated roof shapes all constructed with ease. You might recognize all those three traits as the common features of modern suburban homes, especially the so-called McMansions. Yeah, these things make McMansions possible.

One feature of many McMansions is a roof line with numerous gables. The front may have multiple gables popping up above windows. Or there might be gables pointed different directions. The roof line might mix several architectural styles. These options give McMansions a distinct profile, one that critics often note is odd or garish.

The argument of this video is that this is made possible by the gang nail plate. Without it, the roof is more expensive and not as strong. The big spaces that Americans expect in their single-family homes are more difficult to construct.

This reminds me of the importance of other construction techniques that enabled suburban housing. Balloon framing. The systems developed in mass suburbs, such as Levittown, to build homes in stages and with a set number of floor plans.

How many of the Chicago Christmas movies actually take place in the Chicago suburbs?

I do not spend a lot of time watching Christmas movies but I know at least a few of the Christmas movies said to involve Chicago are more about the Chicago suburbs. Some evidence…

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Here is one recent overview of Chicago Christmas movies that references their settings:

“Home Alone” is set in a fictionalized version of Winnetka, Illinois. “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation” takes place in an unnamed suburb outside of Chicago. “The Santa Clause” is set in Lakeside, Illinois. “Christmas With the Kranks” happens in Riverside, Illinois. “Fred Claus,” “The Christmas Chronicles,” “Office Christmas Party,” “While You Were Sleeping,” “A Bad Moms Christmas,” and the early scenes of “A Christmas Story Christmas” take place in downtown Chicago.

“The Polar Express” is initially set in Grand Rapids, Michigan (based on the inclusion of several historic local buildings familiar to the original book’s author). Still, its North Pole sequences are modeled after the Pullman Factory in Chicago.

Many additional films also connect to the greater Midwest. “A Christmas Story” takes place in Northwestern Indiana. “Jingle All The Way” is set in Minneapolis. The Barbara Stanwyck and Fred MacMurray classic “Remember The Night” starts in New York City and moves to Indiana for the holidays.

Another list of “The 11 best holiday films set in Chicago, ranked” includes several films in the city and several in the suburbs (including the top two on the list).

A third list of “Best Chicago Christmas Films” includes a number set in suburbia.

    Claiming some of these Christmas movies are Chicago movies is like Chicagoland residents claiming to be from Chicago.

    Now we’re reporting on the house next to the Home Alone house?

    The Home Alone house is a popular place. The house next door, briefly featuring in the movie, is also apparently newsworthy:

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    In real life, the home of the fictional South Bend Shovel Slayer — aka OId Man Marley — from the 1990 John Hughes-written holiday classic “Home Alone” is located at 681 Lincoln Avenue in north-shore Winnetka…

    It’s right next door to the more famous “Home Alone” house at 671 Lincoln Ave. in Winnetka, which was shown extensively in the film as the home of the McAllisters. That home was listed for sale in May at $5.25 million and, according to its Zillow listing, has a sale pending…

    As it turns out, Old Man Marley — played by the late character actor Roberts Blossom — is a kindly neighbor who helps Kevin overcome his fears of going into the basement. Kevin, in turn, helps Old Man Marley reconnect with his estranged son…

    According to the Zillow listing, the home was built in 1898 and was a creation of Benjamin Marshall, a major influence on the architecture of modern Chicago. The home sits on two-thirds of an acre in Winnetka and features six bedrooms, six full bathrooms, one half-bathroom, a balcony, a library, a putting green, a large in-ground pool, a half basketball court, and plenty more.

    Popular movie + expensive suburban house = story people will click on? Americans like single-family homes and may even like looking at interesting single-family homes more than they like their own.

    Chicago suburbs as popular places to film Christmas movies

    Chicagoland residents may see some familiar places in recent holiday movies:

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    If you’re nodding, you’ve seen Very Merry Entertainment’s three holiday films shot on location in the Lake County village: “Christmas with Felicity,” “Reporting for Christmas” and “Christmas on the Ranch.” The latter debuted on Hulu in November.

    “Once Upon a Christmas Wish,” a Long Grove production starring Mario Lopez, premieres Saturday on the Great American Family network. And two other Illinois-based movies, “Christmas at the Zoo” and “Christmas in Chicago,” will be released in the future.

    In recent years, Illinois has emerged as the site of a holiday movie cottage industry. While old big-screen classics like “Home Alone” and “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation” are associated with the Chicago area, a crop of newer projects were also shot in the city and surrounding villages and suburbs. Of the Christmas movies released between 2018 and 2023, 12 were at least partially filmed in the Chicago area, including the 2021 Disney+ movie “Christmas Again,” according to the Illinois Film Office…

    “The villages that surround Chicago are very bucolic, and have this period architecture and a setting that mimics the ideal that the storytelling for a Christmas film encompasses,” said Louis Ferrara, assistant deputy director at the Illinois Film Office. “If you go to Libertyville or Long Grove, you’ll see the Christmas decorations going up [in early November] and through the holidays. So, these villages exist in this manner every year. And I think producers and filmmakers are really now discovering that aspect of our region.”

    In other words, the financial situation in the Chicago suburbs has to be good – aka tax breaks – and the communities fit the aesthetic for a Christmas film. If the goal is to have charming downtowns in small suburbs, the Chicago area has plenty of those. Take the Wikipedia description of Long Grove, mentioned above:

    The village now has very strict building ordinances to preserve its “pristine rural charm”,[5] including prohibitions on sidewalks,[6] fences,[7] and residential street lights.[8] The Long Grove area is now known for its historic downtown, its exclusive million dollar homes and the annual events including the chocolate, strawberry and apple festivals that take place in May, June and September, respectively.[9] The Robert Parker Coffin Bridge, on the edge of the city’s downtown, is a historic 1906 bridge that is featured on the Long Grove’s logo and welcome signs.[10] Due to the 8-foot-6-inch (2.59 m) clearance height of its covering, it has been struck by vehicles dozens of times in recent years.[11]

    Or Wikipedia’s overview of Libertyville’s downtown:

    Libertyville’s downtown area was largely destroyed by fire in 1895,[11] and the village board mandated brick to be used for reconstruction, resulting in a village center whose architecture is substantially unified by both period and building material.[11] The National Trust for Historic Preservation, which gave Libertyville a Great American Main Street Award, called the downtown “a place with its own sense of self, where people still stroll the streets on a Saturday night, and where the tailor, the hometown bakery, and the vacuum cleaner repair shop are shoulder to shoulder with gourmet coffee vendors and a microbrewery. If it’s Thursday between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m., it’s Farmer’s Market time (June–October) on Church Street across from Cook Park — a tradition for more than three decades.”[17]

    I could imagine some additional Chicagoland suburbs would want to get in on selling themselves as having a charming, Christmas aesthetic that lasts all year long.

    The reasons Americans move to exurbs – including economic opportunities

    An overview of some booming American exurbs explains why they are growing:

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    Exurbs are areas typically located 40 to 60 miles from city centers and are often appealing to families seeking more space, affordable homes and a quieter way of life.

    The trend has transformed once-sleepy rural towns into thriving cultural communities with booming populations and housing markets…

    The COVID-19 pandemic has played a significant role in the shift to the exurbs, with many people now able to make a living from home thanks to an increase in remote work opportunities. 

    This means they are no longer tied to big hubs where offices are based.  

    Skyrocketing housing costs in major cities have also pushed many families to seek more affordable and spacious alternatives.

    Finding affordable housing is a significant issue across American metropolitan areas. The thought often goes that the further one moves out from the center the more house a buyer can get. (This can ignore the pockets of cheaper housing that do often exist closer to the center of regions but the assumption is those who want these cheaper homes also want a particular kind of suburban community or way of life.)

    But there is another component to the growth of exurbs and the suburban fringe. There are jobs and other economic opportunities on the edge of regions. Commuting to the big city is arduous from these far-out locations. The article above hints at the possibilities of working from home but numerous exurbs grew before this. Where are people working?

    They are often working at companies and organizations in the suburbs. If I live 60 miles outside the big city, I may commute to a job 45 miles from the big city. Those edge cities spread throughout regions can provide thousands of good jobs accessible to those living in the exurbs. Or the new growth generates jobs and opportunities in the exurbs. Yes, some people can work from home but these are particular kinds of jobs and new growth leads to medical jobs, service jobs, and jobs in other industries that also find it attractive to locate in exurbs.

    In other words, you cannot have the cheaper housing of the exurbs without also having jobs and opportunities in and near the exurbs.

    John Grisham describes American sprawl

    In his latest work of fiction, John Grisham opens a chapter by describing a scene:

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    Across the Camino River and headed west away from the island, the busy highway was lined with shopping centers, fast food restaurants, car dealerships, car washes, churches, and big box retailers, the typical American sprawl. Billboards advertised cheap loans, scowling lawyers, and plenty of subdivisions. Construction was in the air. New developments, new “neighborhoods,” new retirement villages were up to seemingly overnight. Realtors’ signs clogged the intersection. Every other truck belonged to a plumber, an electrician, a roofer, or an HVAC specialist advertising a deep concern for your comfort and quality of life.

    This paragraph contains multiple traits of suburban sprawl as described by numerous people in recent decades. This includes:

    1. Highways lined with particular businesses (a “typical” American streetscape?).
    2. Lots of vehicles on the roads.
    3. Fast growth (developing happening “seemingly overnight”).

    Perhaps the biggest thing missing – though hinted at with “realtors’ signs” – are single-family homes that loom large in American suburbs.

    On one hand, the book gets at the problems of sprawling waterfront growth in Florida. This has its own unique features. On the other hand, would the description above be out of place around Las Vegas, Nashville, or Dallas or decades ago outside New York, Chicago, or Minneapolis?