Monthly Archives: May 2013

Is this meaningful data: Chicago the “slowest-growing major city” between 2011 and 2012?

Posted on by

New figures from the Census show that Chicago doesn’t fare well compared to other cities in recent population growth:

Chicago gained nearly 10,000 people from July 2011 to July 2012, but was the slowest-growing major city in the country according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Thursday.

It was the second year in a row that population grew here, but the increase so far shows no signs of making up for the loss of 200,000 people over the previous decade…

Among cities with more than one million people, sun-belt metropolises like Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston and San Diego all posted gains of more than 1.3 percent, while Chicago grew by little more than one-third of 1 percent.

With a total estimated population of 2,714,856. Chicago held on to its spot as the third largest city. But the two largest cities padded their leads, with New York City adding 67,000 in 2012 and No. 2 Los Angeles gaining 34,000 people.

While I’m sure some will use these figures to judge Chicago’s politics and development efforts, I’m not sure these figures mean anything. Here’s why:

1. The data only cover one year. This is just one time point. The story does a little bit to provide a wider context by referencing the 2010-2010 population figures but it would also be helpful to know the year-to-year figures for the last two years. In other words, what is the trend in the last several years in Chicago? Is the nearly 10,000 new people much different from 2011 or 1010 or 1009?

2. These are population estimates meaning there is a margin of error for the estimate. Thus, that error might cover a decent amount of population growth in all of these cities.

In the end, we need more data over time to know whether there are long-term trends going on in these major cities.

Two other interesting notes from the Census data:

1. The population growth in the Sunbelt continues:

Eight of the 15 fastest-growing large U.S. cities and towns for the year ending July 1, 2012 were in Texas, according to population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Lone Star State also stood out in terms of the size of population growth, with five of the 10 cities and towns that added the most people over the year…

No state other than Texas had more than one city on the list of the 15 fastest-growing large cities and towns. However, all but one were in the South or West.

This fits with what Joel Kotkin has been saying for a while.

2. Many Americans continue to live in communities with fewer than 50,000 people:

Of the 19,516 incorporated places in the United States, only 3.7 percent (726) had populations of 50,000 or more in 2012.

However, many of these smaller communities are suburbs near big cities. It’s too bad there aren’t figures here about what percentage of Americans live in those 726 communities of 50,000 or more.

One way to destroy the planet: “heat a McMansion”

Posted on by

Heating a McMansion is part of a list of 12 ways of “how to destroy the planet”:

The easiest way to waste extra energy in a large home is to keep the air conditioning and the heater on all the time, and adjust them both up until you’re comfortable. Space-heating makes up nearly half of the average home utility bill.

Heating water uses up more energy than anything other than heating air. For the profligate, that means long showers and always setting the washing machine for whites.

Perhaps this is why there is more interest in energy efficient homes or even net-zero energy homes. This argument would be even stronger if there were some numbers to compare larger and smaller homes. How much more energy does an average 3,000 square foot require compared to an average 1,800 square foot home? Or a 5,000 square foot house versus a 2,5000 square foot home?

One way around this would be to have home sellers include average utility bills as part of the documentation or listing of the property. Think of it like a MPG rating for a car – homeowners should also have the ability to assess the energy usage. Going further, home sellers might also list comparisons to other nearby homes. I’ve seen reports that using smart energy meters that give homeowners comparisons to their neighbors helps reduce usage so why not also make it part of the real estate process?

Rising global interest in growing numbers of single-person households?

Posted on by

Sociologist Eric Klinenberg drew attention to the growing number of single-person households in the United States but the numbers are even higher in Switzerland:

Sociologists claim that Switzerland’s singletons are changing the housing landscape in the country.

In 2010, the Federal Statistics Office reported that over 36 percent of registered addresses were single-person households, one of the highest proportions in the world.

Here are some Euromonitor figures on single-person households around the world:

-The number of single-person households is steadily increasing globally owing to improving standards of living and a growing trend towards smaller household structures. The number of single-person households globally has risen by 30.1% between 2001 and 2011 and reached 277 million or 14.9% of total households by the end of the period;

-This trend is seen across regions and within both developed and emerging and developing economies. However, it is more pronounced in the developed economies of Western Europe and North America where the proportion of single-person households stood at 31.0% and 27.6% respectively in 2011 compared to 10.9% in the Middle East and Africa region;
-By 2020, the number of single-person households globally will rise to 331 million or 15.7% of total households. The USA will have the highest number of single-person households in the world at 36.3 million followed by China (31.6 million), Japan (18.2 million) and India (17.4 million) in 2020;

The primary objective of this conference is to advance theoretical and empirical knowledge on the formation of single-person households in Asia and their implications for individual well-being and intergenerational relations. We invite submission of papers to examine the trends and determinants of single-person households in Asian countries. Longitudinal and comparative works are particularly welcome.

Family structure in Asia has undergone significant changes in the past several decades. A fast-growing trend that has raised concerns by scholars and policy makers is an increase in single-person households. By 2020, it is estimated that four out of the top ten countries with highest number of single-person households in the world will be in Asia. The increase raises questions regarding how family functions, and indeed regarding the definition of family system itself. Statistics show a high level of heterogeneity among groups who live alone, some by choice, others out of needs. The increasing number of single-person households for both young adults and elderly warrants special attentions as they are the two groups with the highest propensity to live in a single-person household. This group of population may be at higher risk of financial stress or social isolation. In particular, studies on solo-living of young adults are rare in the Asian context. In the face of vastly different paces of change, structurally and culturally, in the region, research that examines the trends of single-person households in different Asian societies would help us to understand the impacts of social changes on families in Asia.

This a rising global trend that has the potential to transform numerous societies. This also might be an interesting example of globalization: a trend that begins among young adults in relatively wealthy countries spreads around the world.

Does buying a vacation home in Mauritius really expose your kids to other cultures?

Posted on by

I just saw the end of a House Hunters International episode on HGTV and heard a justification for buying in a more tropical location that is often used on the show: it is good to expose kids to other cultures. On one hand, there may be some truth to this: the kids may indeed meet people very different from themselves as well as see other social and cultural practices. This exposure might be more significant if the family is living in the the new location full-time, as was the case in this episode as the father had a new job, versus flying to the location a few times a year for vacation.

However, there are some factors that are working against this significant exposure:

1. The family typically buys in a Western-style housing complex. This suggests they may be living more near other internationals or at least near more people with money.

2. The families typically are people of means, those who can afford to purchase a second home or have the kind of jobs that transfer them to foreign locales. This status would particularly stand out in developing countries.

3. At least on the show (which is not a good depiction of reality), the families are not typically shown doing “normal” things in the new society in which they live. No trips to the grocery store or market, hanging out in local eating establishments, or participating in social life with people who look different than themselves. Instead, we typically see shots of them on the beach or at the pool or enjoying their home.

In the end, I’m skeptical about the level of exposure to other cultures. This sounds like wealthier Westerners wanting some diversity on their terms and social standing.

Another chance for DuPage County Board to review proposed mosque near West Chicago

Posted on by

A federal court has given DuPage County officials another chance to review a proposal for a mosque near West Chicago:

Islamic Center of Western Suburbs in August filed the lawsuit claiming that DuPage discriminated against the group by rejecting its request to use a house at 28W774 Army Trail Road as a religious institution. The legal action was taken after DuPage County Board members on May 8, 2012, voted 15-3 to deny a conditional-use permit.

Then in March, DuPage lost a similar lawsuit filed by another religious organization. That prompted a federal judge to give the county and Islamic Center of Western Suburbs a chance to resolve their dispute.

The neighbors to the property are still not happy about the proposal:

Still, neighbors remain strongly opposed to the conditional-use request. About 50 of them attended Monday night’s public hearing.

Several of the neighbors voiced concerns about the possibility of flooding, increased traffic and lower property values. They say the house should remain a single-family home.

“We have a right to enjoy our properties without the intrusion of a commercial property butting into our neighborhood,” said Laura Wiley, who lives adjacent to the property. “It is changing the landscape of our neighborhood. It is going to inhibit our personal enjoyment of our property.”

Sounds like a typical NIMBY situation: the neighbors say the property will harm their quality of life while studies by the group bringing the proposal suggest there will be few issues. I’ve just been reading Colored Property: State Policy and White Racial Politics in Suburban America and there seem to be some parallels here. Suburbanites continue to make an economic, rather than racial, argument that they should be able to defend the value of their hard-earned property versus what they view as intrusions.

What happens if the DuPage County Board rejects the proposal again? The article suggests the Board can’t really do that as a similar case in Naperville (see here) has moved forward and the Islamic learning center will be built. So, it will be interesting to watch this upcoming vote…

Underwater mortgages slow housing recovery in Chicago area

Posted on by

Crain’s Chicago Business highlights an issue that is slowing the real estate market in the Chicago area: homeowners with underwater mortgages.

More than 506,000 Chicago-area homes—or one-third of the market—were underwater as of the fourth quarter, according to California research firm CoreLogic Inc. That’s up 7.6 percent from the previous year.

Underwater properties are bogging down a residential market that’s clawing back from its post-crash ditch. By opting to stay put, these homeowners are removing a substantial portion of potential saleable properties from the market, limiting choices for those who are ready to buy…

Rising prices ultimately will push more underwater homeowners to sell, Mr. Humphries says, but it’ll be a while before prices get anywhere near the levels seen in the market apex of just a few years ago. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of single-family homes, a closely watched barometer of values, in February stood 34 percent beneath its September 2006 zenith.

For buyers, meanwhile, the process of finding and closing on a home has become a scrum—and it’s likely to stay that way for a while. This spring, showings are drawing crowds and bidding wars, and fast sales are common, buyers and brokers say.

I wonder how much of this is tied to the psychology that people feel losses, such as the value they may have lost in their house’s value, more than equal gains. What tactics could be used to convince people that they might be better off getting out of the mortgage? I’ve seen one such argument: the value loss on a smaller house is likely to be less in absolute dollars and then homebuyers could benefit from larger drops in prices for larger houses.

Game identifying random locations through Google Streetview

Posted on by

Love to see random sites around the world? Check out the game Locatestreet where you are given a picture from Google Streetview and you have to guess (with multiple choice and with the opportunity to utilize a few hints) the correct location.

After playing the version with random US locations, I discovered that context matters – check out the housing styles and the vegetation for some insights into the location. Indeed, you might just see lots of trees and landscape. Also, knowing where population centers are can go a long way in making a closer guess as to where the exact picture was taken…

h/t Atlantic Cities

New buyers looking for luxury amenities rather than giant homes still focused on consumption?

Posted on by

More home buyers today may be choosing amenities over big houses:

Oversized McMansions are history. Instead of big houses with rooms that might seldom — if ever — be used, builders are offering luxury amenities that add to comfort and enjoyment for years to come.

How about a Woman Cave? Other innovations include separate suites for in-laws or “boomerang” children who return home for a time after college or maybe a divorce, luxury walk-in closets and gourmet kitchens that make even a microwave dinner feel special.

“Two things sell homes — baths and kitchens,” said Peder Jensen, director of sales for Nashville’s Jones Co., which recently introduced the Woman Cave…

In addition to lots of granite, Dock Street offers kitchens with double ovens and gas cooktops. Master closets have a California Closet organizer.

“It’s sexy to have a nice master closet,” said Dan Kingsbury, project manager and principal broker at Tollgate Village. “It adds a ‘wow’ factor.”…

“Years ago it was all about square footage. The more the better. Now people want to downsize but upgrade,” he said.

Critics of McMansions have argued for years that the homes are more about being impressive rather than being useful. Additionally, McMansions have been viewed as symbols of excessive consumption. Yet, do these smaller homes with upgraded amenities really get away from this? While the amenities might be more understated and more functional, these amenities are likely not cheap and builders and developers can boost their profits on all sorts of upgrades. In the end, aren’t both the McMansions and upgraded amenities still about consumption, whether it is directed at visitors and possible buyers versus turned in on the homeowners themselves?

National Association of Realtors commercial in support of tax incentives for homeowners

Posted on by

The National Association of Realtors is running a new television commercial supporting tax incentives for homeowners. Here is the money line toward the end of the advertisement:

The National Association of Realtors supports maintaining homeowner tax incentives, because they make homeownership more affordable for more families.

There had been talk in the last few years about getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction (see an example here during the fiscal cliff negotiations) but I haven’t heard anything more recently. Is the National Association of Realtors trying to get out in front of this possible issue?

It is interesting how the ad plays on some common themes of American homeownership such as the home as a castle and that kids should feel safe at home instead of having to worry about whether it is affordable. Who exactly is the evil dragon in this ad – banks? Government officials? Putting kids out in front here is a smart move – who wants to deny children a nice home that their parents own?

New analysis shows more poor people in suburbs than cities

Posted on by

Several Brookings Institution scholars released new analyses showing more poor people now live in suburbs than cities:

As poverty mounted throughout the nation over the past decade, the number of poor people living in suburbs surged 67% between 2000 and 2011 — a much bigger jump than in cities, researchers for the Brookings Institution said in a book published today. Suburbs still have a smaller percentage of their population living in poverty than cities do, but the sheer number of poor people scattered in the suburbs has jumped beyond that of cities.

In the Chicago area, the number of poor in the suburbs increased by 99 percent in the last decade, from 363,966 to 724,233…

More poor people moved to the suburbs, pulled by more affordable homes or pushed by urban gentrification, the authors said. Some used the increased mobility of housing vouchers, which used to be restricted by area, to seek better schools and safer neighborhoods in suburbia. Still others, including immigrants, followed jobs as the booming suburbs demanded more workers, many for low-paying, service-sector jobs.

Change also came from within. More people in the suburbs slipped into poverty as manufacturing jobs disappeared, the authors found. The housing boom and bust also walloped many homeowners on the outer ridges of metropolitan areas, hitting pocketbooks hard. On top of that, the booming numbers of poor people in the suburbs were driven, in part, by the exploding growth of the suburbs themselves.

The shift caught many communities by surprise, the authors found, with public and private agencies unprepared to meet the need in suburban areas.

 

This analysis is part of a new took titled Confronting Suburban Poverty in America.

This is not new for those who follow suburban trends: the suburban population has become increasingly diverse in terms of social class in recent decades. In fact, there have always been pockets of working-class residents in suburbs since suburbs began in the United States. However, there is a longstanding image of suburbs as mainly wealthy places as those with means left cities.

One other thought: even with the increasing number of poor people in the suburbs as a whole, poorer residents are not likely scattered evenly throughout suburban regions. Take the Chicago area for example: how many poor residents are in places like Kenilworth or Barrington or Lake Forest or Oak Brook versus places like Harvey, Addison, Waukegan, and Elgin? Some of the residential patterns of social class in suburbs then mirror some of the issues American cities have faced for decades, poorer areas isolated from wealthier areas, but with a twist: while all of these city neighborhoods may be under one government, suburbs have varying layers of government, making it more difficult to provide services to pockets of poorer residents. Additionally, wealthier suburbs have effectively limited affordable housing in many of their communities, restricting where poorer suburban residents can live and find opportunities.