Category Archives: Sociology

More colleges in places with higher costs of living

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Where do colleges tend to be located? This graph in The Chronicle of Higher Education uses one metric:

Two quick thoughts in response:

  1. Does the presence of these colleges over time help contribute to a higher cost of living? I am reminded of Richard Florida’s argument about the creative class. If I remember the analysis correctly, places with colleges tend to have higher percentages of creative class residents. And he suggests colleges and universities can help attract people and development.
  2. When Ben Norquist and I looked at the locations of smaller Christian colleges, we found they tended not to be in the biggest cities (which account for some of these higher cost of living places). In contrast, research schools are often in big cities according to the article: “Almost a third, or 32.2 percent, of colleges in The Chronicle’s analysis were in counties where cost of living was at least 15 percent higher than the national average. The types of institutions found in these expensive regions tended to vary. About 10 percent of doctoral-granting universities and 23 percent of four-year special-focus institutions (like those specializing in health professions or religious training, for example) are in the priciest 1 percent of the nation’s counties, where the cost of living is more than one-and-a-half times the national average. In contrast, nearly half of associate- and bachelor’s-granting institutions were in counties with below-average costs of living.”
  3. The other category with a larger percentage discrepancy is among the percentage of institutions in counties at 90 to 100 in cost of living.

The prime suburban real estate available when restaurants close

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Want a prime location in the suburbs? Red Lobster and TGI Fridays might have an answer:

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Vacant restaurant chains are creating prime real estate for a wide range of companies looking for spots to grow, especially fast-food chains that want to install drive-thru lanes on spots where diners once sat down for dinner.

Chains like Red Lobster and TGI Fridays filed for bankruptcy this year and closed more than 175 restaurants combined. Red Lobster was driven into bankruptcy by mismanagement under a previous owner, global shrimp supplier Thai Union, while TGI Fridays fell under private equity owner TriArtisan Capital Advisors. Denny’s is also closing 150 restaurants…

In the past, these restaurants would often be replaced by a different restaurant chain, with tables to sit at and servers to bring out the food. But now, fast-food and fast-casual chains are taking these spaces and building more drive-thru lanes. Chipotle is building 4,000 new locations, the majority with drive-thru lanes, while Chick-fil-A is building new spots with four-lane drive thrus…

Many of these restaurant locations are also attractive to prospective tenants, as they are freestanding buildings, not located in the back of decaying indoor malls. Indoor malls have struggled in recent years, and mall vacancies reached 6.5% last quarter, according to CBRE. Macy’s, JCPenney, Nordstrom and others have closed hundreds of their stores in malls as online shopping has grown to around 16% of retail sales. Real estate research firm Green Street estimates about 150 enclosed malls have closed since 2008, leaving about 900 today.

Most of the closed restaurants are also located on high-traffic streets with large parking lots or adjacent to a shopping center, making them attractive sites.

I have heard before that certain restaurants and retailers are less into the business of selling things and more into the business of real estate. Think just of the largest fast food chains in the world: how many prime locations do they occupy? If all that land went up for sale at once, how many other businesses would be interested in jumping in?

I have been thinking about locations like these in terms of religious congregations recently. They often occupy important locations within communities, sometimes at busy intersections or in important historic locations. If that location is no longer occupied by a congregation and/or a religious building, it could be a loss in the community (and a possibility for something else).

In the case of these restaurants, it appears there is plenty of demand for the land and plenty of interested parties want to make more money with these properties. Additionally, I would guess most municipalities love that another restaurant will take over. Those new restaurants and businesses can generate even more revenue. The worst possible outcome is that the land remains vacant with limited demand and the property becomes an empty eyesore.

How long before these new restaurants that take over are selling off their own properties? Ten years? Twenty years? At least in this moment, new restaurants want to snatch up these properties but that might not always be the case.

“Visit your local IKEA store”

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A recent advertisement encouraged people to “visit your local IKEA store.” I get the general idea: I can go find what their latest deals at my closest store.

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However, the “local” part of it stuck with me. Do I have a “local IKEA store”? Here is why the term might not work well:

  1. There are two IKEA stores in the entire Chicago region of over 9 million people. One is closer to those living toward the north, one is closer toward those living in the southern part of the region. Thus, many in the region will have to take a bit of a drive to reach a store. These are not stores found in numerous communities. How far away from a residence is a “local” store?
  2. Local can imply local business or smaller in scale and size. All of these might be in comparison to big box stores that offer predictability and many square feet. IKEA is more in this latter category with stores that are large, found along major roads, and are surrounded by large parking lots. These are not local businesses; this is a global corporation with a limited number of stores and pick-up sites in the United States (see the map here). These are destinations, not local businesses near the hearts of communities.

I, like many others, will make a trip to IKEA in the future to look for items and have an experience that cannot easily be found elsewhere. But I will not consider it a local store as I travel down highways to the sizable building located among many other national and international retailers at a convenient nexus of sprawling suburbia.

Seeing notable but small art in a big space, The Great Wave edition

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The Art Institute of Chicago is currently displaying The Great Wave by Katsushika Hokusai. I enjoyed seeing the print and reading more about it as it is not always on display.

But it was also notable the setting in which the print is displayed. The Ando Gallery is unique; hear the audio tour experience here. The room has darker lighting and there is a high ceiling. The print is on a long wall to the back left from the entrance.

Because the print it smaller and the gallery has space, here is what the scene looks like:

On the day I was there, the print had a small crowd around it as people took in the work and the text on the wall. I was reminded of the gallery of The Louvre with the Mona Lisa where a large crowd presses to see what is a smaller painting. In both places, the work and its status attracts crowds.

This is a different experience compared to other common settings. First, large paintings – like A Sunday on La Grande Jatte at the Art Institute – can attract crowds. However, the size of the painting means many people can still see the whole thing even when there are numerous people around. Second, numerous works in art museums have few or no people looking at them. Even on busy days, one can find quiet rooms where there are no crowds and an observer can take it all in on their own.

Even as we might interact with art as individuals regularly, whether in museums or in books or elsewhere, this also serves as a reminder that we often do it in interaction with others. The small crowd around The Great Wave were quiet, even reverent, as each person or group took it in. But they could not ignore that many others were also right there having their own experience.

The many people still on public housing waiting lists in Chicago

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Many Chicagoans are on public housing waiting lists:

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There are 164,000 unique applicants across CHA waitlists, a CHA spokesperson said.

Americans on the whole may not like public housing but that does not mean there is not a need for it. Chicago, like many major cities, has long provided some public housing but what was provided did not adequately meet the housing needs (and created other issues). And the CHA waiting lists historically were long and did not open often for people to join.

Who has a plan to reduce the waiting lists and provide housing? Large-scale public housing is probably not in the works, but small-scale projects and scattered-site projects often only make small dents in the waiting lists and the larger need for housing.

Tackling housing at a metropolitan scale would be helpful. If Chicago does not want to or cannot address these housing needs, what other communities can or will? Or what if housing was viewed as an opportunity for the whole region to collectively address a pressing need?

Clubs and organizations: “Join or Die”

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A new documentary follows up on the argument of Bowling Alone and why it is worthwhile to join a club:

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If you’ve been feeling depleted and disconnected from a world of diminished meaningful in-person interactions, “Join or Die” explores one reason why, as laid out by social scientist Robert Putnam. Collectively, we’re less involved in organized gatherings. There are all kinds of reasons for that, but it’s a fundamental shift that’s affected our quality of life, because the social bonds that result when you join a club or organization are not just a matter of “warm, cuddly feelings,” Putnam says in the film. “In area after area of our community life, our communities don’t work as well when we’re not connected.” And that, he says, has far-reaching effects not only on us as individuals, but on democracy itself…

Putnam’s thesis is that communal activities build social ties, which have value beyond the immediate satisfaction of just doing things together. It creates a sense of mutual obligation.

I was thinking about some of these ideas as I was reading an article in the Chicago Reader about dog owners letting their pets run off-leash in city parks. Technically it’s not allowed and the practice can be controversial, but the story focused on an aspect I hadn’t considered: “While proximity and green space may have motivated people to start utilizing unofficial areas, the community that forms within is what keeps them coming back.”

This is more or less Putnam’s theory come to life. According to the story, because of the “community-oriented and unregulated nature of the unofficial dog parks, their patrons feel that they look out for each other’s dogs more than people do when at an official (dog-friendly area). The sentiment that ‘we all look out for one another’ was repeated more times than I could count, whether in the context of cleaning up after dogs, calling dogs that run outside the gates and/or begin to wander off and explore new scents, or maintaining space for other park patrons.”…

Putnam says TV is one of the reasons we’re fractured. He calls it “lethal for social connectedness — basically we’re now watching ‘Friends’ instead of having friends.” But I think it goes even deeper. The kind of stories we see on TV reinforce many of the factors he’s citing. Instead of stories rooted in the idea that life is a group project, we’re fed the message that fixing or changing anything is, as Putnam put it, “the business of somebody else” — and on screen that’s usually the police or superheroes, rather than regular people working together to solve problems.

Another way to think about it is that there are collective and individual benefits to joining a club: it can help one’s well-being and improve social connections. At the same time, the social relationships and social networks formed can help tighten bonds and communities.

In contrast, other common activities may not do the same things. Online or social media activity can bring people together – but it can also lead to atomization and relationships that work differently when not regularly conducted in-person. Television tends to be a more solo activity or occurs with a small group, even as mass media has the potential to bring people together to some degree (common experiences, etc.).

I am curious to hear more about the actual in-person component of joining a club and how much this matters for building social capital. As Randall Collins explains in Interaction Ritual Chains, unique things happen when humans are in physical proximity.

Suburbanites who like to vote in national elections but not in local ones

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Ahead of yesterday’s elections, I read this from the DuPage County Clerk:

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“While it’s too early to make predictions, it appears that DuPage County is on track to have a large turnout for this presidential election. There’s excitement in the air,” Kaczmarek says. “In 2020, the turnout was 76.55% with 491,067 ballots cast – the largest turnout in DuPage history.”

In recent years, DuPage County has had the highest voter turnout in the region in every election.

In other words, voter turnout was high with a presidential election. But this high level of turnout does not carry over to local elections. See posts from 2022, 2019, and 2018.

I can understand why turnout is high during presidential and national races. The rhetoric is persuasive, the stakes are high, and the advertising is plentiful.

But suburbanites like local government and local control. They like seeing their tax dollars at work in the community. They like the access to local leaders. They select communities based on particular amenities that they want to preserve or enhance.

National and state politics do affect what happens in communities. But the huge drop-off between voting for the president voting for the local mayor or council is a bit odd; in day-to-day life, the suburbanite may see experience more affected by local government than by the president. With the federal system the United States has, local government (municipalities, townships, counties, etc.) have significant decision-making and monetary powers. To not participate in local elections at similar rates to national elections is to indicate less concern and interest for the former.

Median home prices up 39% in four years

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How long can median home prices rapidly increase:

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The median U.S. home price is now $435,000, per NAR — up 39% since 2020 — while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has more than doubled to over 6% in that time

This is a quick jump in a short amount of time. Americans expect that housing values will go up over time – this is what can make it such a valuable investment – but can it keep going up this quickly?

Skepticism about this rise continuing at this rate could emphasize multiple unusual factors at play. A global pandemic. Interest rates shooting up. A quick turn toward working from home. A slow-down in housing construction, particularly for less expensive homes and starter homes. And housing prices do not always go up every year – they ten to over decades but not at every point.

On the other hand, why shouldn’t this rise continues? Where is a bunch of new housing going to come from? Will mortgage rates drop dramatically soon?

This statistic came from an article that primarily discusses how these rising prices mean many are priced out of the market. Those with resources already, particularly those with equity in a home, can better compete for the limited number of houses.

Whether values continue to increase or slow or even decline could go a long way toward affecting who can pursue the American Dream of homeownership.

Political ad season has been most intense in Pittsburgh

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Political ad season 2024 been the most intense in this city:

Pittsburgh viewers tuning into Monday Night Football this week watched their Steelers beat the New York Giants — and 26 political ads.

That’s just a small slice of the roughly 2,300 political ads the typical Pittsburgh household has seen on television this year, according to AdImpact, more than any other market in the country. 

The nonstop political onslaught for viewers, however, means a windfall for the stations. The local ABC affiliate broadcasting Monday’s game charged as much $150,000 for a single 30-second ad, an astronomical sum for the market.

Pittsburgh is the most extreme example of a phenomenon happening in swing states across the country: Campaigns and their allies are buying so many political ads that local businesses — the personal injury lawyers, car dealers and furniture stores that are usually staples of local news commercial breaks — often can’t reserve any airtime even if they could afford the inflated rates. 

While political ads are likely airing almost everywhere due to local and state races, the presidential race depends on a few select states and big markets within them. Which party can turn out the most voters in the key suburban districts?

It would be interesting to see data after the election about how Pittsburgh area residents responded to these ads. How many people did they convince? What did it cost roughly to pickup each vote? How did these big ad buys perform compared to social media campaigns that can target specific individuals? Money was spent…but how effective was it.

Similarly, how might these ad seasons boost local media organizations? Is this like Christmas season for media where the money that comes in during political ad season covers budgets for a much longer time? If political ad season was reduced in length or in spending, how might these media organizations do with less money?

Trying to prove (or disprove) the Infinite Monkey Theorem

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A new paper suggests monkeys will have a hard time coming up with the works of Shakespeare:

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The Infinite Monkey Theorem is a famous thought experiment that states that a monkey pressing random keys on a typewriter would eventually reproduce the works of the Bard if given an infinite amount of time and/or if there were an infinite number of monkeys.

However, in the study published in the peer-reviewed journal Franklin Open, two mathematicians from Australia’s University of Technology Sydney have rejected this theorem as “misleading” within the confines of our finite universe…

They took the assumption that the current population of around 200,000 chimpanzees would remain the same over the lifespan of the universe of one googol years (that’s 1 followed by 100 zeros). They also assumed that each chimpanzee would type one key per second for every second of the day, with each monkey having a working lifespan of just over 30 years.

Using these assumptions, the researchers calculated that among these randomly-typing monkeys, there is just a 5% chance that a word as simple as “bananas” would occur in the lifespan of one chimpanzee…

“By the time you’re at the scale of a full book, you’re billions of billions of times less likely,” he continued.

Perhaps this needs to be updated for today’s world: instead of animals, why not consider an infinite number of machines randomly producing text? Could they do the work of monkeys much faster and eventually converge on Shakespeare?

I also wonder how this parallels thinking about what humans or societies can accomplish. Given infinite or finite sets of resources, what can be produced? If humans have X amount of resources over X amount of time, how likely is it that a particular issue can be solved or a particular innovation will emerge or a particular problem will arise? Such predictions would rely on estimating probabilities, something that is very hard to do given forecasting future conditions and possibilities.