Add political ads to political yard signs in a third season

On Monday, I proposed adding political yard sign season to the Chicago seasons of winter and construction. I want to amend that third season: include political ads with political yard signs.

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Political ads are everywhere this time of year and they are hard to avoid:

-During all TV broadcasts. Whether watching football games or news broadcasts or sitcoms, candidates are all over the screen.06

-Internet and social media ads. I do not see many of these due to using adblockers but the ads are over the place.

-Mailings as candidates flood mailboxes with appeals and glossy photos and policy positions.

-Texts asking you to vote for candidates or support a candidate. How many of these numbers do we need to block?

-On the radio. Perhaps not as pervasive as TV but still there.

And I do not even live in a battleground state where I would guess there are even more ads.

The political ads must work to some degree as millions are spent on them. Who exactly is convinced by them? Do they primarily rile up a base who then votes in larger numbers? At the same time, I remember hearing a talk by a sociologist who interviewed campaign managers who reported that social media ads are preferable because it is easier to measure who responds or engages compares to mass media ads.

Commercials are part of the American way of life. Anywhere you turn, you see brands, logos, and appeals for particular products. Given that landscape where we see thousands of ads, why not throw in politicians and parties and issues as just another brand or product to sell?

Like the political yard signs, the ads will disappear after Election Day. They will be back for the next races as different actors try to position their candidates in front of the public in a truly American way.

When mortgage rates do not decrease as expected

The Fed cut interest rates. Mortgage rates did not go down; they went up:

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Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has moved higher, not lower.

According to data from Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped about 47 basis points since the Fed rate cut, to 6.62% from 6.15%…

Going forward, the situation hinges on the Fed’s rate-lowering schedule. At present time, market expectations — as calculated by the CME FedWatch tool — are for two more 25-basis-point cuts this year.

Whether that will manifest itself in lower mortgage rates is up in the air. Two major upcoming events are the Consumer Price Index release this Thursday, as well as the October jobs report in the first week of November.

Life does not always go as predicted. However, this saying does make it easier to work with the unexpected happenings. And with large-scale systems, lots of people might hold an expectation or be told something will happen. With all the moving pieces in the financial system (plus its interactions with other parts of the world), patterns can change or there can be exceptions to regular patterns. Since home sales are an important part of economic, social, and community life, any changes like these have ripple effects. If it slows down home purchases and selling, this affects a lot of actors.

One question to ask is whether there are certain periods or conditions when the predictable is less likely to happen. Is this rise in rates when they were expected to go down a one-time occurrence or part of broader instability? How predictable are mortgage interest rates given particular circumstances?

The diamond interchange advances in the Chicago region

A new diamond interchange, the fourth in Chicagoland, just opened in the southwest suburbs of Chicago:

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Illinois Department of Transportation leaders unveiled a new diverging diamond design they predict will expedite travel for drivers on the interstate and local roads…

“The modern design is a proven solution to improve safety and traffic flow in a busy area like where we are today,” IDOT Secretary Omer Osman said…

The interchange dovetails with Rock Run Collection, a major Will County development that will include housing, retail, restaurants, offices, and the relocated Hollywood Casino Joliet…

A diverging diamond has a smaller footprint than conventional cloverleafs and is cheaper to build.

Innovation to keep all the vehicles moving smoothly between interstate and a local major road.

What other major roadway changes could help speed up traffic and increase safety? Adding lanes does not necessarily speed up traffic. The Chicago region has plenty of left-turn on green signal only lanes that help reduce certain crashes. Protected bike lanes are only found in a few denser places.

Is the answer in better vehicle technology? Vehicles that talk to each other and/or driverless cars? Smaller or lighter vehicles?

Another possible solution is to reduce the amount of driving. This could be hard in sprawling suburban areas, like where these diamond interchanges are located. Introducing more mass transit options in the region is possible but it is costly, is harder to implement in the suburbs, and it might not find favor among residents.

The drivers at this busy interchange may come to appreciate their new diamond among the asphalt. Others may want to wait for more innovation that improves travel through suburbia.

Add political yard sign season to winter and construction

A Chicago area joke suggests there are two seasons: winter and construction. I would like to propose a third and occasional season: political yard sign season.

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This season is a regular occurrence even as it does not show up every year, it might be more visible on the 4 year presidential election cycle, and it occasionally occurs during primary voting periods in the spring. On its more regular schedule, by early October numerous lawns and public intersections contain political yard signs. Lawns – usually clear of obstructions – broadcast political messages for those passing by. They range from national offices (president, Senate, House) to very local offices (townships, local forest preserves, etc.). They differ in size – some huge, some small and hard to read – and in color, often tied to the traditional colors of the two major parties with some occasional other colors thrown in.

Most lawns do not have signs. Some property owners have them each political yard sign season, others are more occasional participants. The corners of major intersections can be little battlegrounds as people place signs for different candidates and different races.

What difference does political yard sign season make? I do not know. Do those going by at suburban driving speeds (1) have time to read the signs and (2) ever change their preferences or voting patterns? Is it more about political mobilization among residents where signs are symbols of their fervor? For the stories and images I see of signs stolen or removed, do these actions change anything?

Soon political yard sign season will pass. Election Day comes and the signs disappear rapidly. Some might hang on for a while longer, braving the cold and snow of winter. Almost none will be around for the coming of the next construction season. For a short period, political yard sign season blooms and we all experience it.

Passing the (statistical) midpoint of life

When does being “middle aged” begin? When does one slide from being a young adult or emerging adult to an older adult?

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These categories have some porous boundaries but there is another way to look at this. What is the life expectancy of people in the United States and where do I fit?

According to the CDC (2022 data), life expectancy is 77.5 for all adults and 74.8 for men. For the year I was born, the life expectancy was a little lower than the 2022 figure.

With that data in mind, I am comfortably past the mid-point of life. Sure, there are some personal traits and family history to consider but the broad data suggests this is the case.

Does this help me feel better or worse? Hard to know; it does provide a reminder that many others are in similar positions. In a society that often prizes youth and all that comes with it, to be further along in the age distributions comes with consequences.

The numerous consequences of “car bloat”

Vehicles on American roads have gotten bigger over the years. This has various effects:

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I use the term car bloat to describe the ongoing expansion of vehicle models over the past 50 years. Although car bloat is a global trend, it is especially pronounced in the United States, where sedans and station wagons have been largely replaced by the SUVs and pickups that now account for about 4 in 5 new car purchases. At the same time, individual models have grown heftier. A 2024 Chevrolet Silverado pickup, for instance, is around 700 pounds heavier and 2 inches taller than the 1995 edition. According to federal data, the average new American car now weighs around 30 percent more than it did 40 years ago.

Car bloat creates numerous costs that are borne by society rather than the purchaser, or “negative externalities,” as economists call them. These include increased emissions, faster road wear, and reduced curbside parking capacity. But car bloat’s most obvious and urgent downside may be the danger it presents to anyone on the street who isn’t cocooned inside a gigantic vehicle.

Although occupants of big cars may be slightly safer in a crash, those in smaller ones are at much greater risk. A recent analysis by the Economist found that among the heaviest one percent of American cars, 12 people die inside smaller models for each person saved by the enormity of their vehicle. Pedestrians are still more exposed. A recent study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety found that vehicles with tall, flat front ends—common on SUVs and pickups—are more than 40 percent more likely to kill a pedestrian in the event of a crash than those with shorter, sloped ones. Worse, giant cars are more apt to hit a human in the first place because drivers sitting high off the ground have an obscured view of their surroundings. A 2022 IIHS study found that large vehicles’ A-pillars (the structure between a windshield and side window) frequently conceal pedestrians at intersections, and TV news stations have run segments demonstrating that an SUV driver cannot see as many as nine toddlers sitting in a row in front of her.

Having a bigger vehicle may help increase the safety of the driver and passengers but causes issues for others. If the American emphasis on driving and planning around cars was not enough, having even larger vehicles makes it more difficult for pedestrians, bicyclists, and users of smaller vehicles.

The article goes on to discuss options to limit the danger to pedestrians while still allowing vehicles to be big. It might be harder to think of realistic ways that American vehicles could shrink over the next few decades. Imagine an American landscape in 2050 where large vehicles are rare. Large SUVs and pickup trucks are small in number. More vehicles are smaller. How did it happen? Will Americans come to care more about the environment? Will there be a larger groundswell for alternative modes of transportation? Will there be influential financial incentives to move to smaller vehicles? Is there political will to set size and/or weight limitations?

I also imagine there might be some limits to how big vehicles could get. Do lane widths and parking spots all need to be redesigned? Is there a significant loss in drivability and/or fuel efficiency at some point?

Grocery stores as geographic boundary markers, California edition

Could the distribution of two grocery stores demarcate the boundary between Northern and Southern California?

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If you’re shopping for bananas in NorCal, you’d likely head over to the nearest Safeway. But if you travel south of King City in Monterey County, that familiar chain is no longer an option — but the inside of Vons, found throughout SoCal, will feel eerily familiar. No matter where you are, there’s a clap of thunder before the produce aisle endures a quick “rainstorm.” 

That’s because the stores are owned by the same company and have been since 1997. After decades of competition, Safeway acquired Vons and eventually the stores had the same bright interior, wide aisles and even the same loyalty numbers. They’ve even adopted the same color red for their logo. Some Californians may not even realize they’re both owned by the same company and yet, they’ll still have a preference for one or the other. 

“It’s a common industrywide practice to keep the brand name that locals are familiar with in their region. There is a sense of pride among shoppers when they shop at their local supermarket,” Safeway spokesperson Wendy Gutshall told SFGATE.

Not all might agree with this:

Plenty of Californians would be offended by this discussion altogether, with no murmur of the very real Central California designation thrown in.

Where one neighborhood ends and the next begins or where a region stops and another begins can be contentious. How many names and areas should there be/ Which trait or pattern to consider? What if public opinion is mixed or divided?

Sometimes there are official or authoritative designations that can help. If the Census Bureau says your state is in the Midwest even though might consider themselves to live in another region, that is an authoritative voice. Or if online maps start labeling a neighborhood by a particular name, this reinforces that name.

What is interesting here is that this designation involves one major grocery company that has locations of two of its brands to geographic areas that do not overlap. What would happen if Albertsons started a Safeway in San Diego or a Vons in San Jose? Would people refuse to go there? Would expats from the other region flock to a more familiar store? There are other grocery stores – such as Walmart or Costco – that span both regions.

What if all the homeowners in a town or sizable neighborhood wanted to sell at once?

The second part of this headline is thought provoking: “In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell.” More from the story:

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Hoping it was a fluke, Driscoll tore out the affected drywall and started fresh. After all, the four-bedroom home built in 1960 had no flood history. 

But then it happened again, and again. Like many others in the community, he put his home up for sale in the spring of this year. After seeing little interest, he cut the asking price…

Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms are starting to undermine housing markets throughout much of the state. But in few places has the turnaround been more dramatic than in low-lying communities up and down the coast of Florida that frequently flood. 

The Tampa Bay housing market had been softening even before Helene struck. While prices have been flat, the area experienced a 58% increase in supply in August compared with a year ago, and a 10% decrease in demand, according to Parcl Labs, a real-estate data and analytics firm. 

About half the homes listed for sale in Tampa experienced price reductions as of Sept. 9, the third highest share of all U.S. major metropolitan areas.   

It sounds like there has been an increase in people wanting to sell in this area. It is not quite “all” have their homes on the market. Perhaps “all” might want to sell?

Either way, the idea of a large number of homeowners moving away at once is likely rare in recent years. There are ghost towns across the American landscape, whether in mining communities or suburbs. In these cases, everyone left and decades later there are some remnants or possibly nothing left if other land development has taken place.

If residents all left these Tampa neighborhoods, what would happen to the land? It could remain unpopulated if it was determined that these are areas that frequently experience flooding. The land could become wetlands or a buffer zone for nearby land. Or it could be turned over to other developed uses that might be less affected by flooding, whether that might be a park or industrial space.

Examining gentrification in the suburbs

While gentrification is often associated with neighborhoods in cities, scholar Willow Lung-Amam describes what gentrification can look like in Maryland suburbs:

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Just as there was nothing natural about the processes that prompted suburban decline, there was nothing natural about the vast funds poured into these communities to make redevelopment happen. County and state governments led the way through planning, policies, and public investments meant to entice private investment. As Silver Spring and Wheaton vividly revealed, their efforts were layered and robust: enterprise zones, urban and art districts, eminent domain, tax breaks, parcel assemblage, parking regulations, new transit investments and infrastructure. Public agencies created new market pressures that directed and enabled profitable private development. They served as the promotional arm of private corporations, advertising new suburban downtowns as safe for middle-class consumers and residents. They were critical actors in creating displacement pressures and were, as many activists argued, responsible for their redress.

But for the millions of dollars in tax breaks, incentives and assistance that developers were given, what was asked in return for those who lost their homes, businesses and sense of community? What was gained for those who had lived with broken sidewalks and run-down playgrounds for decades? Were they the beneficiaries of this progress – or was the development, as many suspected, for someone else?

As visions for new suburban downtowns emerged, long-standing communities could scarcely see themselves in the sketches of shiny new plazas and pedestrian streets. As in downtown Silver Spring, these images projected futures that allowed for the comfortable return of the white middle classes, catering to their tastes and preferences for what an authentic and safe urban experience looked and felt like. They did not honor marginalized groups’ deep histories, struggles or valued places. If suburban boosters dared to look back at all, their visions sugarcoated the past in ways that did not trouble their present plans.

Even diversity became a selling point. In Wheaton, multicultural festivals crowded the downtown plaza and colorful art displays featured faces from across the world. Yet many wondered whether its fragile diversity was simply a transition to a future in which they no longer existed.

This is gentrification — and it is suburban. While the language of retrofitting or renaissance may be much more genteel, their processes are no less brutal nor disruptive. They affect the lives and livelihoods of countless neighborhoods and threaten the sense of place that people of color and new immigrants have fought to establish and protect, sometimes with, but largely in the absence of, white neighbors and public support.

This sounds similar to what studies of urban gentrification find: the promises of new development and growth can have negative consequences for residents already there.

I wonder if resisting gentrification in the suburbs might be harder for two reasons:

  1. Growth is good in the United States. This is true across numerous American communities but might even be more baked into the idea of suburbia. Suburbs are meant to grow. To resist growth is to resist a higher status. (An exception might be that communities that are already well-off and exclusive can resist growth.)
  2. It can be hard at times to find local suburban narratives that highlight the difficulties some face in the suburbs or the ways that exclusion shaped suburban communities. The argument above appears to highlight that gentrification limits opportunities; this goes against local and broader narratives that suburbs are about opportunity and securing a portion of the American Dream.

I look forward to reading this book and considering further gentrification in suburbia.

Acting at multiple levels to provide alternatives to lawns in a Minnesota suburb

If residents and leaders want more options to grass lawns available, who needs to act? This story about working to provide spaces for “the endangered rusty patched bumblebee” in one Minneapolis suburb describes what happened:

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The city of Woodbury in recent years has made native landscaping and pollinator gardens more intentional in some of the city’s 500 stormwater basins. The homeowners associations that rule many of Woodbury’s residential developments, dictating everything from front door colors to permitted landscaping, have become more lenient. The just-built Westwind New Home Community has in its recorded covenant a stipulation that allows homeowners to use native plantings and shrubs.

The Legislature weighed in last year with a new law saying cities cannot ban pollinator gardens or native plantings in front yards, opening a path for those who want to create a bee-friendly spot. The conflict got widespread attention after the city of Falcon Heights sued a man who planted vegetables in his front yard…

When visitors ask her for advice, Boyle sends them to Metro Blooms, a Minneapolis nonprofit that helps communities create healthier landscapes. There’s some cost to a project like Boyle’s, but the larger barrier was the social stigma…

Hong has pitched an idea to developers to allow homeowners to choose their landscaping, much the same way they might choose the home’s paint color or countertops, and to give them the option of planting native grasses and pollinator gardens. If someone just bought a new house that came with sod and in-ground irrigation, “it’s asking a lot of the homeowner to rip that all out and do something different,” Hong said…

The counterargument is that most builders choose sod for new houses because of state and federal rules about stormwater and erosion control, said Nick Erickson, the senior director of housing policy for Housing First Minnesota, the state trade association for builders.

From the story, it sounds like at least these sets of actors have gotten involved: a municipal government, homeowner’s associations, the state legislature, non-profits, and some residents. On the other hand, developers and builders may privilege grass lawns because of state and federal guidelines. Additionally, the story hints at more informal interactions as residents talk offline and online about lawns and draw upon long-established patterns about lawns and yards.

All of this suggests to me that moving away from lawns is not an easy task. Americans, particularly in the suburbs, tend to like lawns and what they represent. To present viable alternatives takes work. Many homes already exist. What might motivate people to take out a lawn and replace it with something else? What incentives are available? In this particular situation, a danger to wildlife is motivating some people to act. Elsewhere, it might be drought or limited water supplies.

If people want to envision a United States with substantially fewer grass lawns in thirty years, this article hints that multiple actors will need to work. Each could have a part to play in incentivizing other options. And as noted above, having new homes that do not start with a lawn is a potentially powerful change that could take some time to pursue.