Category Archives: Sociology

“Why do we believe North America’s biggest cities are dangerous when they are, in fact, among the safest places in the world?”

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Just how dangerous are North American cities?

Why do we believe North America’s biggest cities are dangerous when they are, in fact, among the safest places in the world? In large part, because it was once true: For most of the 20th century (and a good part of the 19th), our big cities really were dangerous. Murders, muggings, armed robberies and sexual assaults were big-city phenomena, and the way to escape physical danger was to move away. Today, the opposite is true.

If you really want to find murder city, you need to get out of North America. The most violent cities in the world are places that used to be small and peaceful, but have very recently become huge cities. And no wonder: The cities of the Southern and Eastern hemispheres are doing today what our cities did a century ago: Absorbing huge, formerly rural populations. In 50 years, Kinshasa has grown from 500,000 to 8 million people; Istanbul from 900,000 to 12 million…

“The twenty-first century,” it concludes, “is witness to a crisis of urban violence.” The two billion people becoming city-dwellers are facing the “urban dilemma” – they realize that moving to the city is an improvement in their lives by most known measures, but it does expose them to greater risk and danger. So while urbanization has cut world poverty in half and lifted billions out of starvation, the hives of crime and danger in the city are preventing the next step into prosperity: “This dark side of urbanization threatens to erase its potential to stimulate growth, productivity and economic dividends.”

By no means is this inevitable. Cities are not naturally more violent: Yes, Caracas and Cape Town have horrendous murder rates. On the other hand, very densely-populated cities such as Dhaka and Mumbai have rates below their national averages – they are actually safer places to live than the villages migrants are leaving behind. In poor countries, and here in the West, the really huge cities are often much safer than the small and medium-sized ones, where the real corruption and danger lie. In India, which has been galvanized by a rape crisis in the fast-urbanizing north, new research shows that rates of sexual assault and rape remain higher in rural areas. And we have learned from Brazil and South Africa that big, bold interventions can make dangerous cities safer.

It is helpful to keep a global perspective on this issue. What counts as violent is relative: Americans tend to compare their cities to other American big cities, perhaps within regions or to the biggest cities in the country.

Another reason our big cities are seen as violent: urban violence is a consistent media story, even as violent crime rates have dropped in many cities.

American, Australian leaders face vermin, possums in their residences

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Even some of the most powerful leaders have to deal with infestations in their houses: the White House has vermin and the official house of the Australian prime minister has a problem with possums. First, the White House:

It is, of course, not the first time bugs or vermin have done battle with the humans who work in the 213-year-old building. Humans have not always prevailed easily – much to the deep frustration sometimes of the president of the United States. None was more frustrated than Jimmy Carter, who battled mice from the start of his administration. To his dismay, he found the bureaucracy unresponsive. GSA, responsible for inside the White House, insisted it had eliminated all “inside” mice and contended any new mice must have come from the outside, meaning, the New York Times reported at the time, they were “the responsibility of the Interior Department.” But Interior, wrote the Times, “demurred” because the mice were now inside the White House…

His fury was captured in his diary entry for Sept. 9, 1977. Carter that day summoned top officials from the White House, the Department of Interior and the GSA to the Oval Office to unload on them about the mice overrunning the executive offices – including the dead ones rotting away inside the walls of the Oval Office and giving his office a very unpleasant odor. “For two or three months now I’ve been telling them to get rid of the mice,” Carter wrote. “They still seem to be growing in numbers, and I am determined either to fire somebody or get the mice cleared out – or both.”

Now more scared for their jobs than at any possible reaction from humane groups, the bureaucracy responded. According to the Associated Press, daily battle updates were sent to the highest levels of the White House, complete with body counts and descriptions of the weapons being deployed. On Sept. 12 – three days after the meeting with Carter – GSA reported 48 spring traps in the White House, including five in the Oval Office and four in Carter’s study. Six more “Ketch All” traps were placed in the crawl space under the Oval Office. Peanut butter, bacon and cheese were the favored baits. By Sept. 13, the number of traps deployed in the West Wing was up to 114. On Sept. 15, the body count was up to 24. By Sept. 19, it was 30; then 38 by the end of the month…

Other presidents have had their own battles with White House vermin. First Lady Barbara Bush once was taking her daily swim in the pool on the South Lawn when she was joined by a rat that “did not look like a Walt Disney friend, I’ll tell you that.” She told reporters “it was enormous.” She credited her springer spaniel, Millie, and her husband, the president, with rescuing her and drowning the rat.

And in Australia:

Australia’s official prime ministerial residence, The Lodge, a 1920s colonial-style 40-room mansion in Canberra, was intended to be a temporary lodging until a permanent “monumental” residence was constructed. It is in a state of serious disrepair and has given successive leaders problems.

Former prime minister Julia Gillard once recalled an embarrassing dinner with a visiting foreign leader in 2012 which was interrupted by possum urine dribbling from the roof towards a valuable painting.

It sounds like these both of these houses have their own unique and tortured histories, leaving plenty of opportunities for nature to intrude on human politics. Frankly, I’m not sure most people would want to know how many critters are in and around their property. What exactly goes on around that foundation or within the walls? Perhaps this might be another selling point for passive houses: they are so sealed up that nature is effectively kept at bay.

The End of the Suburbs – again?

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The author of a new book titled The End of the Suburbs suggests the American suburbs will change in response to several threats:

Q: So which demons are breathing down suburbia’s neck?

A: There’s a lot. To begin with, the nuclear family, which filled our suburban houses, is no longer the norm — marriage and birthrates are steadily declining, while the number of single-person households is growing rapidly. If the demand for good schools and family-friendly lifestyles has historically been the main selling point of suburban life, those things aren’t going to matter so much in the future.

Another thing is that Americans are just sick of driving. They’re sick of commuting. The number of miles driven per year is in decline. And the cost of gasoline has meant that homes on the suburban fringe are not such a bargain.

At the same time, cities, in general, are making a comeback, especially among young adults and even among families with children.

Q: Among the factors you write about in the book, which one is the biggest influence?

A: One of the things that’s the most potent of all of these factors is the demographic situation — the birthrate is falling, the marriage rate is falling, the nuclear family is rapidly becoming a minority household type in this country — 70 percent of households won’t have any children in them by 2025. When you look at those figures and the way our population is changing so dramatically, it hits home — we have built all these houses for a type of household that isn’t going to exist anymore.

But on the question of what happens to the suburbs, the author then goes on to suggest they won’t completely disappear as they will still appeal to a segment of the market.

A few things to note:

1. Critics have suggested the end of the suburbs for decades now. That doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t decline or disappear in the future; it just means plenty of people have made this prediction.

2. Perhaps the most important thing for the future of the suburbs is whether the adaptations to these threats take place within the suburbs or in cities. For example, there is already a push to more density within suburbs that might approximate more urban conditions without having to actually be in cities. These denser pockets would limit driving and also possibly provide different kinds of housing.

3. Her suggestion about the changing household composition is intriguing: see this earlier post about Going Solo in the suburbs.

Health includes social and behavioral dimensions

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There may be privacy concerns about the government having behavioral and social data as part of medical records but that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t important factors when looking at health:

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) wants to require health care providers to include “social and behavioral” data in Electronic Health Records (EHR) and to link patient’s records to public health departments, it was announced last week.

Health care experts say the proposal raises additional privacy concerns over Americans’ personal health information, on top of worries that the Obamacare “data hub” could lead to abuse by bureaucrats and identify theft…

The “meaningful use” program already requires doctors and hospitals to report the demographics of a patient and if he smokes to qualify for its first step. The second stage, planned for 2014, will require recording a patient’s family health history.

The National Academy of Sciences will make recommendations for adding social and behavioral data for stage three, which will be unveiled in 2016.

Maybe these are separate concerns: one might argue such data is worthwhile but they don’t trust he government with it. But, I suspect there are some who don’t like the collection of social and behavioral data at all. They would argue it is too intrusive. People have made similar complaints about the Census: why exactly does the government need this data anyway?

However, we know that health is not just a physical outcome. You can’t separate health from behavior and social interactions. There is a lot of potential here for new understandings of health and its multidimensionality. Take something like stress. There are physical reactions to it but this is an issue strongly influenced by context. Solutions to it could include pills or medicine but that is only dealing with the physical outcomes rather than limiting or addressing stressful situations.

We’ll see how this plays out. I suspect, federal government involvement or not, medical professionals will be looking more at the whole person when addressing physical concerns.

Chicago Tribune editorial against “survey mania”

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The Chicago Tribune takes a strong stance against “survey mania.”

Question 1: Do you find that being pelted by survey requests from your bank, cable company, doctor, insurance agent, landlord, airline, phone company — and so on — is annoying and intrusive?

Question 2: Do you ignore all online and phone requests for survey responses because, well, your brief encounter with a bank teller doesn’t really warrant a 15-minute exegesis on the endearing time you spent together?

Question 3: Don’t you wish that virtually every company in America hadn’t succumbed to survey mania at the same time, so that you’d feel, well, a little more special when each request for your precious thoughts pings into your email?

Question 4: Do you wish that companies would spend a little less on surveys and a little more on customer service staff, so that callers would not be held captive by soul-sucking, brain-scorching, automated answering systems in which a chirpy-voiced robot only grudgingly ushers your call — “which is very important to us, which is still very important to us” — to a human being?

Question 5: Do you agree that blogger Greg Reinacker laid out some reasonable guidelines for companies that send surveys to customers: “Tell me how long it’s going to take. Even better, tell me exactly how many questions there will be. … Don’t ask me the same question three different ways just to see if I’m consistent. … If you really, really want me to take the survey, offer me something. I’m a sucker for free stuff. And a drawing probably won’t do it.”

Question 6: Do you think companies should be aware that a pleasant experience — a flight, a hotel stay, a cruise — can be retroactively tainted by an exhausting survey and all those nagging email reminders that you haven’t yet filled it out?

Question 7: Do you find it irritating when a salesperson tries to game the system by reminding you over and over that only an excellent rating for his or her service will suffice … before said service has been rendered to you?

Question 8: Do you agree that there are ample opportunities to put in a good word for, say, an excellent waiter or sales clerk or customer service agent (just ask to speak to his or her supervisor!), which is much more sincere than you unhappily trudging through a long multiple-choice online questionnaire?

Question 9: Are you aware that marketing professors tell us that these surveys can be vitally important for companies to improve their service and that employee bonuses and other incentives hinge on whether you rate their service highly or not? We’re dubious, too, but just in case it’s true … would you please tell our boss how great you think this editorial is? Use all the space you need.

We get it – some people think they are being asked to do too many surveys. At the same time, this hints at some larger issues with surveys:

1. Companies and organizations would love to have more data. This reminds me of part of the genius of Facebook – people voluntarily give up their data because they get something out of it (the chance to maintain relationships with people they know).

2. Some of these problems listed above could be fixed easily. Take #7. Salespeople can be too pushy in trying to get data.

3. Some things in #5 could be done while others listed there are harder. It should be common practice to tell survey takers how long the survey might take. But, asking about a topic multiple times is often important to see if people are consistent. This is called testing the validity of the data.

4. I think more consumers would like to receive more for participating in surveys. This could be in the form of incentives, everything from free or cheaper products or special opportunities. At the least, they don’t want to feel used or to feel like just another data point.

5. Survey fatigue is a growing problem. This makes collecting data more difficult for everyone, including academic researchers.

All together, I don’t think the quest for survey data is going to end soon because customer or consumer info is so valuable for businesses and organizations. But, approaching consumers for data can be done in better or worse ways. To get good data – not just some data – organizations need to offer consumers something worthwhile in return.

Intel anthropologist says humans forming deeper relationships with their gadgets

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Having an anthropologist working for Intel is interesting enough, but there’s more: this sociologist argues humans are having more social interaction with their electronic devices.

Bell, who is set to speak Thursday at Intel’s developer forum in San Francisco, says the first step is the creation of devices like the Moto X that have always-on sensors listening for our commands.

“There’s an implicit promise in the listening,” Bell told AllThingsD in an interview on Wednesday.

Bell said she started thinking about this notion after watching a YouTube video of a Furby attempting to interact with Apple’s Siri.

Of course, many devices today still have trouble comprehending what we are saying, let alone caring about us. But the tie between us and our devices is clearly growing, Bell says, if we have reached a point that people sleep with their smartphones within arm’s reach. The shift from personal devices to devices with which we truly have a relationship will take time, she said, perhaps a decade or more.

In her travels around the world, Bell says, people often describe their smartphones in highly personalized ways. Bell recalls one person saying of her phone, “I fight with it sometimes, but we make up, and I know it will always have my back.”

Interesting. This argument seems similar to that made by Sherry Turkle in Alone Together. Turkle describes years of research examining how children have social interactions with electronic devices, like Furbies and Tamagotchi. She found kids can form close bonds and had a really difficult time when the device was taken away or worse, died.

Americans in poverty have electronics, showing how ubiquitous they are

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This article is intended to suggest that Americans in poverty don’t have it that bad because of the items they have in their home. I would argue for a different interpretation: this shows how common and relatively cheap these consumer goods are.

American poverty just ain’t what it used to be. A new report from the Census Bureau found that 80.9% of households considered poverty stricken have cell phones along with their landline phones, and 58.2% have computers. 96.1% of those in “poverty” have televisions, and 83% have some sort of DVR.

The percentage owning refrigerators? 97.8%

Gas or electric stoves? 96.6%.

Microwaves? 93.2%

Air conditioning? Over 83%.

Washer? 68.7%

Dryer? 65.3%

Having these items is simply part of modern living. The adoption rate for new devices rises much more quickly today than it did a century ago. Take cell phones as an example. Here is one description about how quickly they spread in the United States:

Just a quick note for your next PowerPoint deck on megatrends: more than 90 percent of adults now have a cell phone, according to the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. For people under the age of 44, that number is closer to 97 percent.

Pew calls the cell phone the fastest-adopted device in history. These things are subject to some variability because of when we start the clock, but the cellphone adoption rate is certainly up there with the radio and color TV, and far faster than computers or landline telephones.

Additionally, there is an important difference between absolute poverty and relative poverty. Sure, poverty in the United States doesn’t look like the most desperate poverty in the world but that doesn’t mean there aren’t clear differences and disadvantages between those with lower incomes and wealth than those with more.

Treehouse owner vs. “McMansion proponents”

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This news report shows an argument in Venice, California between a woman with a unique treehouse versus the “McMansion proponents” suspected to be behind opposition to the treehouse.

We don’t get much background about these “McMansion proponents” but it does strike me as an effective moniker to neutralize the opposition. Who wants to be known publicly for being a “McMansion proponent”? Even those who like big houses or think property owners should be able to have teardowns wouldn’t loudly say they like McMansions. They would want to shift the language to something like “luxury house” or turn the conversation back to the topic of individual rights. Additionally, using the term McMansion often implies outsiders who want to build big houses and change/destroy the neighborhood with their oversized homes. It suggests this is an us vs. them battle, the humble homeowners who just want enjoy their neighborhood versus monied people who want to construct their private paradises.

Regardless of the outcome of this, it is hard to imagine a more effective negative name to use than “McMansion proponents.”

Headed toward another housing bubble in the United States?

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A CNBC editor looks at some data that suggests the United States may already be experiencing a housing bubble:

On Monday, we got the fourth month of home affordability data coming in below trend, which is a strong confirmation that the housing market is once again in a bubble. (The NAR index is published with a two-month delay, so the latest numbers are for July).

The affordability index measures the household income needed to qualify for a traditional mortgage on a median-priced single family home. So it’s looking at a mortgage with a 20 percent down payment and a monthly payment below 25 percent of income at the currently effective rate on conventional mortgages…

The index has been dropping rapidly since peaking in January at 210.7. We’re now down to 157.8, according to the preliminary numbers released for July on Monday. Home prices have been rising and interest rates climbing, while wages haven’t kept up. That’s how we got to the lowest level of affordability seen since July of 2009.

According to the NAR, this shouldn’t be dire news. A score of 157.8 officially indicates that a household earning the median income has 57.8 percent more income than needed to get a mortgage on a median priced home.

A few interesting things to note here:

1. There is some debate about whether this index has predictive power. In other words, it isn’t necessarily easy to identify when there might be a housing bubble.

2. This adds more evidence that a housing recovery in the US is a long-term project. Housing prices may have risen so much by the mid-2000s that it will take years to sort it all out. A slow-growth economy doesn’t help.

3. Instapundit has a good take: “I WISH IT WOULD GET TO MY NEIGHBORHOOD.” While the idea of a bubble could be troubling, there are plenty of homeowners who would welcome some increased value for their home. Of course, that increased value might disappear again…