Category Archives: Sociology

Who suburban townhomes are intended for, Naperville edition

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A new proposal to build townhouses in Naperville includes discussion who would live in these denser neighborhoods compared to single-family home subdivisions:

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Through the 1990s and early 2000s, there was so much single-family construction in Naperville that “I think there’s probably a little bit of a need to diversify housing product,” Whitaker said.

“I would say it’s not just townhomes, but I think you’ve also seen more senior housing, more apartments,” he said.

Whitaker also pointed to changing demographics in Naperville. It’s always been a great place to raise a family, but today, the population is aging, he said. “We’ve got a great supply of single-family homes in neighborhoods like Ashbury and Tall Grass in south Naperville, and frankly, it would be hard to … build new single-family homes at a price that is cost competitive to what exists in those communities,” Whitaker said. “And so I think the goal has been to diversify a little bit and find some different niches…

“The development will meet a significant community need by creating a housing opportunity that is suitable for many types of homebuyers,” the petition states, “including some of the fastest growing housing segments of our population, young professionals and empty nesters.”

As I noted yesterday, the primary way Naperville can grow in population in the future is to develop denser housing. Growth has been a key trait of the community for decades. But more and more townhouses is a change from single-family homes.

Additionally, these comments suggest townhouses in Naperville are aimed at particular residents. Specifically, townhouses could provide housing for seniors/empty nesters or young professionals. Might there be other homebuyers who could live in the townhouses?

Long-term, will more townhouses be palatable in the community if they are at particular price points and particular residents live there? There likely will be some pushback for townhouses regardless because of changes to character of the community and to the neighbors who own homes nearby.

Will there ever be another Naperville in the Chicago area?

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The suburb of Naperville, Illinois is marked by several characteristics: rapid growth from the 1960s onward, particularly between 1980 and 2000, and lots of land annexation; wealthier suburban residents and numerous white-collar jobs; and a lively downtown with national retailers, local stores, plenty of restaurants, and a nice Riverwalk. Will any Chicago area suburb trace a similar path in the future?

Here is why I would guess no:

  1. Limited population growth in the Chicago suburbs. The whole region is not growing much. Population growth in the suburbs could still be uneven; some places are perceived as more desirable or are more affordable and they could grow faster will others stagnate or even shrink. But explosive population growth in the Chicago area looks like it is done.
  2. At multiple points in Naperville’s history, leaders and residents discussed possible development and regulatory options. They tended to choose growth and in particular forms. These sets of decisions helped give rise to the particular traits of Naperville today. Even if another suburb tried to pursue the same path, not all the pieces might fall together in the same way.
  3. When Naperville grew from 1960 onwards, it was closer to the edge of the metropolitan region. Land was cheap and available. The city could annex land without running into other communities. That growth has since moved out further beyond Naperville’s ring, out to places like Aurora and Plainfield and Oswego. Any future Naperville will be 10-30 miles out from Naperville.
  4. Naperville itself – and other older suburbs – will likely change in the future. If Naperville wants to continue to grow in population, it will need to grow denser and taller. Infill development on small parcels could add lots of townhouses, condos, and/or apartments. Redevelopment in desirable areas and around mass transit options could lead to taller or denser buildings. This all could happen in numerous Chicago suburbs but this will move them away from homes dominated by single-family homes and lifestyles.

For more insight behind the argument above, see these published papers involving Naperville: “Not All Suburbs are the Same: The Role of Character in Shaping Growth and Development in Three Chicago Suburbs;” “A Small Suburb Becomes a Boomburb: Explaining Suburban Growth in Naperville, Illinois“; and “More than 300 Teardowns Later: Patterns in Architecture and Location among Teardowns in Naperville, Illinois, 2008-2017.”

Dead shopping malls and empty sound stages

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Enough shopping malls are dead that other vacant properties can be compared to them. Take this question: “L.A. Sound Stages: The New Dead Mall?“

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So: When was the last time you were on a sound stage for a film or TV series? Even if you work in production, the answer is likely “not lately.” One well-known director recently told me that the last time they worked on the 15-stage Fox lot, their production was the only one active that day. And FilmLA’s recent sound stage report was bleak: Average stage occupancy plunged to 63 percent in 2024, down six points even from a strike-ridden 2023.

Compare that to 2016, when stages hummed along at 96 percent occupancy level, or the we-all-agree-it-was-a-bubble Peak TV year of 2022 when levels bounced back up to 90 percent during the post-pandemic recovery. Investors from Blackstone to TPG have stakes in sound stage properties, so it’s not just Hollywood worried about production. Just days ago, sound stage titan Hudson Pacific Properties — the Blackstone-backed owner of Sunset Bronson Studios, which is leased to Netflix — got hit with a credit rating cut. S&P Global called out the company’s “weakened studio business performance” and declining leased studio space, which dipped to 73.8 percent from 76.9 percent the year prior…

On a macro level, sound stages are in trouble — a reflection of the times. Production continues to be offshored to states and countries with more appealing tax incentives and cost structures, the correction from Peak TV means fewer series are being made, and the post-strike job market is still sluggish. While Gov. Gavin Newsom and others are pushing for a big new California tax credit plus other legislative moves to make filming here more accessible (#StayinLA), the industry is still reeling from a few years of blows, and some entertainment workers have left L.A. behind.

While the empty sound stages may be the result of specific issues in the TV and film industry, the comparison to shopping malls is particular interesting. Do we now just assume shopping malls are past their peak? That many of them are dead? That they are the exemplar of buildings that were once thriving but are empty now?

Vacant buildings are a problem for a number of industries and communities (see examples here and here). Empty buildings mean less work or activity is taking place. Empty buildings can lead to perception issues and ne’er-do-wells possibly causing problems. Empty buildings could lead to reduced tax revenues.

If shopping malls are the best comparison for these particular empty buildings, one lesson we might take: it will take years to figure out what to do with these properties. Will activity pick up in production again? Could there be temporary uses for these structures? If redevelopment is pursued by developers, do neighbors and communities want what might be there next?

Dead shopping malls could turn into zombie shopping malls: ones that slightly change form but stick around for years with limited activity and change. Whether sound stages follow a similar path remains to be seen.

The number of people needed to collect important inflation survey data

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How many people participate in collecting data for a key inflation survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past…

To calculate the inflation rate, hundreds of government workers called enumerators fan out across cities each month to check how much businesses are charging for products like blue jeans and services like accounting, largely by visiting brick-and-mortar stores. Statisticians in Washington, D.C. roll those figures together into the consumer-price index, a data stream that shows how the cost of living is changing for typical Americans.

If the government’s enumerators can’t track down a specific price in a given city, they try to make an educated guess based on a close substitute: say, cargo pants instead of slacks. But in April, with fewer workers on hand to check prices, statisticians had to base their guesses on less comparable products or other regions of the country—a process called “different-cell imputation”—much more often than usual, according to the BLS…

The inflation rate determines how much social-security benefits go up each year, and where federal tax brackets are set. Private-sector contracts such as wage agreements between companies and unions routinely reference the inflation rate. Payments on $2 trillion of inflation-protected federal bonds hinge on the inflation rate, as do yields on standard Treasury bonds. Businesses, investors and policymakers rely on the reading to guide their decisions. The Federal Reserve is laser focused on inflation data when it sets interest rates for the country.

Surveys require a lot of work to put together. Questions and methods need to be thought through and tested. Data needs to be collected. Analysis requires skill. Sharing results and interpretations is important.

The particular issues outlined above seem to have to do with (1) collecting data, which relies on going out and finding prices, and (2) dealing with missing data, which is related to #1 but is an issue for many surveys. If the survey is utilized by a large number of people, the choices made in the survey process can then affect decisions and policies.

It will be interesting to see what happens here. At what point do academics, policymakers, and others decide that the survey data may not be trustworthy? Which government surveys – and there are many – get priority for funding and having enough employees?

When suburbanites tell you who they do not want to live in apartments near them, Darien edition

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The City Council of the suburb of Darien recently approved a new apartment complex. The public discussions of the proposal and the discussions of a different apartment proposal in 2021 showed why residents did not want apartments:

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Neighbors objected, saying they’d prefer condos to apartments. Some said they feared the apartments would turn into Section 8. Others raised the prospect of crime…

Alderman Joe Kenny said then that the building in question would not be an issue if the developer planned condos instead of apartments…

“I felt some of the comments in the emails came off as really derogatory. The tone in those statements, they came off to be kind of racist, and it promoted a level of classism that Darien is not proud of,” said Vaughan, who was the council’s only African American.

In response, a man stormed out of the room. Others denied that race was a factor.

But race was explicitly mentioned in one of the dozens of comments that the city posted to its website.

Across suburban communities, these two reasons are commonly mentioned in opposition to apartments: (1) who will live in the apartments and (2) preference for condos or other forms of residences that require ownership. Regarding the first, sometimes the language is veiled and sometimes it is not. It sounds like those who opposed apartments in Darien were clear about who they did not want in the community. And that building condos instead would address their concerns.

And what is the answer in suburbs to these concerns? Here is one answer given in Darien:

He said The Jade was a “beautiful building,” occupied by young professionals. An alderman said something similar recently.

To assuage the fears of residents, these reasons are often provided: the new apartments will look high-quality and young professionals will live there. These are intended to show that these apartments will be occupied by people residents will find acceptable in the community.

This is a way that suburban exclusion continues. I have found similar discussions happening for decades for Chicago area suburbs. Another reason sometimes provided by objectors is that apartments will disturb the character of the community. This reason is often related to the two explicitly mentioned above.

Decisions about development are not just about properties and buildings; they are about who community members want in their suburb.

Who should benefit more from selling a home: sellers, buyers, realtors, Zillow, others?

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The process by which a single-family home or other residential property is built and sold has been under discussion in recent years. Here is one argument about who should benefit more from the process:

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So, when the National Association of Realtors recently adopted a policy allowing limited off-MLS marketing, Zillow announced it would permanently ban any listing not posted to the MLS within one day. Essentially, Zillow — a company that doesn’t sell homes — is asserting it gets to decide how you can market and sell your home. 

Zillow claims it is protecting consumers from off-MLS marketing, which it says leads to longer market times and lower prices. But a 2024 study by Midwest Real Estate Data — the MLS serving Chicagoland — shows the exact opposite. MRED offers a Private Listing Network that shares listings with all member agents without circulating them to public websites. Homes first marketed through MRED’s Private Listing Network sold 55% faster, for more money, and at a higher percentage of list price (97.5% versus 95.4%) than those listed publicly from day one.

Our own experience across tens of thousands of transactions confirms the findings of this study. At @properties Christie’s International Real Estate, we developed a “private-to-prominent” listing strategy that starts with an off-MLS marketing period and builds to a full public offering. This approach has several benefits. It allows a seller and their agent to prepare the home for sale while building interest and demand. It also gives them an opportunity to test a price without having Zillow or other websites display any reductions that might be made prior to the public listing. And the listing does not accumulate market time during this premarketing phase. (Typically, as market times increase, buyer interest decreases.) 

This approach can result in faster, higher-value sales, often before the home ever hits the MLS, or Zillow. Most importantly, it keeps the seller in control. They choose when to list publicly and can accept or reject an offer at any time. 

The key here is at the end: “it keeps the seller in control.” Should the seller be the one calling all the shots and having the advantages?

Another argument could be made that the seller having the primary options limits potential buyers. Is the home reaching all the possible purchasers? If it is on a private network first, how often does it reach the general public? Could private listings build off existing networks, reproducing inequalities?

Or should Zillow and other actors play the primary role as many Americans look for real estate online? Is this more of a tug-of-war between the established real estate industry and the online competitors who offer information for any searchers without the need to contact an agent? There are a lot of jobs and a lot of money at stake.

Is there any role for communities or people who might want to access certain communities down the road? If the strength of local real estate is often taken as a sign of local vibrancy and status, should this only involve private actors?

I suspect this discussion will continue as different actors look for an edge in real estate. Hopefully this does not come down to solely who can lobby the most effectively.

American mobility and the Americans locked into their low mortgage rates

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Among other real estate concerns in the United States, here is one unusual feature of the current market:

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Yet despite a market full of reluctant buyers, sellers are not under pressure to drop their prices. Almost 60 percent of households have an interest rate below 4 percent, according to a study published in the Journal of Finance; selling would mean trading that low rate for a much higher one on a new purchase. Not since the 1980s, when borrowing rates soared into the double digits, have so many Americans been locked into their mortgages, said Lu Liu, an assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and an author of the study, describing the conditions as “unprecedented.”

The implication of the argument above is that people do not want to leave a low mortgage rate for a higher mortgage rate. But this is not necessarily a new situation; mortgages rates go through cycles. Is this just about mortgage rates or do low mortgage rates make it easier to not move due to other reasons? American geographic mobility is low.

Presumably, many people have a price or conditions under which they would move even with a low mortgage. What exactly would it take: a new job that offers 10% or more compensation? An unbelievable housing deal elsewhere? A perception that where they are does not have a good future?

Imagine this scenario: mortgage rates slowly decrease in the next year or two, getting back to 3-5%. Would this significantly increase mobility? It could put more homes on the market as homeowners might be more willing to see what they could get. But would this significantly change the calculus of moving in the first place?

My suspicion is that this is a bigger issue that just mortgage rates. With higher rates, some people will still move: those with resources and opportunities they feel they cannot pass up. With lower rates, more people will feel they could move. But geographic mobility is already low compared to the postwar years and it could take a lot more than mortgages to change this.

Inviting skaters in to revive a moribund urban plaza

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Skaters have revived a plaza in downtown San Francisco:

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For a city struggling to recover after the Covid-19 pandemic, the images of suffering and bedlam could not have been more inconveniently placed: U.N. Plaza, a block from City Hall, has a busy rail station and is bordered by Market Street, a major thoroughfare that double-decker tour buses cruise daily. In 2023, after a big, international conference announced that it was coming to the hobbled city, the parks department scrambled to find a new life for the site.

That turned out to be a skateboard park. On a recent sunny morning, kids in baggy pants slid the railings around a flagpole and cruised over a volcano-shaped embankment. The old granite ledges that used to be illegal to skate on were now open to grind and slide.

Inviting a bunch of skaters to rip around, scuffing ledges, is not the use San Francisco had in mind in 1975 when the plaza was dedicated to commemorate the founding of the United Nations in the city. U.N. Plaza was part of a larger redevelopment meant to attract affluent shoppers to San Francisco from the suburbs. Instead, for the next four decades, the city produced regular reports of failure that highlighted assaults and drug use on the plaza, and high vacancies in the buildings surrounding it. For all the thought that went into the open design and gushing fountain, it was never clear what people were supposed to do there…

What the transformation of U.N. Plaza does show, however, is that attempts at urban revival can go a long way for relatively little money when they attract a natural constituency of users. Obvious as that may sound, it’s the opposite of how planners in San Francisco and elsewhere have historically operated. The notion that a great public space is defined by architecture first, people second, was so ingrained in the city’s thinking that it took the squalor brought on by the pandemic to reverse it…

Another thing that Mr. Ginsburg said he had learned from working with skateboarders was that they operated as the informal “watchful eyes” that the urbanist Jane Jacobs had described as a crucial element of safe streets. They cover a lot of space, they watch out for one another, and unlike a concert or special event, skaters require no special programming from the city. They just show up in short bursts throughout the day, helping to maintain activity outside working hours.

As noted later in the article, skaters are not necessarily the ones American cities tend to call on to bring social life to spaces. But, if the alternative uses are worse, they might call on skaters.

And even though Jacobs is invoked above, her analysis would likely go further than just finding a set of people who want to be in the park: why not design a neighborhood where the uses around the park or plaza support an endless flow of people and activity around and in the park? Then you do not need people who need to just “go to the park” but rather all types who are going in and out of the park.

Would this relationship between the city and skaters continue with the city (1) setting up more spaces for skaters and (2) limiting anti-skating devices and policies in other locations?

The amount of water Americans use to water lawns

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In this season of growing and mowing lawns, the EPA has a number regarding the amount of water Americans use to water their lawn:

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The average American family uses 320 gallons of water per day, about 30 percent of which is devoted to outdoor uses. More than half of that outdoor water is used for watering lawns and gardens. Nationwide, landscape irrigation is estimated to account for nearly one-third of all residential water use, totaling nearly 9 billion gallons per day.

The American lawn is alive and well – in part because of all this water. To get the lawn Americans typically want, green, well-manicured, and free of weeds, much is required. And without watering, it might not even get off the ground. Some parts of the country have regular rain that can support this kind of grass. But, it may not meet the standards of Americans and other areas do not have this rainfall. I, too, have had the experience of flying over the West and then seeing Las Vegas emerge with its telltale green lawns.

The American lawn is also alive and well because of expectations and values attached to this lawn. It signifies success and middle-class suburbia. Yes, it requires water. But if the water supply was severely diminished, would the lawns necessarily disappear? Or would people adjust their behavior to make sure the lawns remain in some smaller or similar form? Just how much water would Americans be willing to devote to green lawns?

Suburban voters as part of larger political realignments in the US

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Political changes in recent election cycles in the United States include the voting patterns of suburbanites:

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The realignments of recent years—the midwestern white working class toward Trump’s GOP and the suburbs toward the Democrats—can be understood as the process of ideological and education sorting coming for groups that were the most out of place in the new political realm: rich suburban Republicans and culturally conservative working-class Democrats. In 2020 and 2024, this realignment came for the nonwhite voters once at the center of Barack Obama’s coalition, especially working-class Hispanics, and most especially those in the rural outskirts of the Rio Grande Valley.

Starr County’s tradition of machine politics, manifest in an unusually strong preoccupation with local elections, marked a place ripe for a sudden political shift. Not unlike the Democratic majorities in the big cities of mid-century, which continue at some level into the present day, political dominance in the region was built not through allegiance to liberal ideals but through political machines that delivered tangible benefits and shaped the political identity of new immigrant groups. This is evident in polling today showing that nonwhite Democrats are much more moderate and conservative than their white counterparts. For a time, ideological differences were subsumed to the work of advancing group interests through machine politics. But in an era of declining party organization and an emptying out of majority-minority cities in favor of more integrated suburbs, the tide of ideological voting could be held at bay for only so long. Once it poured in, America shifted into a new era of politics, from one forged by social connections at the neighborhood level to today’s cultural and ideological polarization, where you vote Republican if you have conservative cultural beliefs, regardless of race.

Two claims here stand out:

  1. “Rich suburban Republicans and culturally conservative working-class Democrats” shifted in recent decades. As the suburbs grew quickly after World War Two, those new suburbanites were assumed to be Republicans. Now, college-educated suburbanites tend to lean toward Democrats. And it also matters where in the suburbs someone lives; those closer to big cities tend to vote Democratic and those more on the metropolitan edge tend to vote Republicans.
  2. The connection made between “more integrated suburbs” and increased polarization. Did the people moving to the suburbs lead to polarization – more residents of different racial, ethnic, and social class backgrounds living in suburbs – or did people moving out lead to polarization? What exactly changed and what led to what? How did suburbs over time become different social and political places?

The pattern seems well-established now: the political state of suburbia has changed. The reasons for it and the long-term consequences are still to be worked out.