Remembering the frenzy and promise regarding Amazon HQ2

Amazon announced part of their HQ2 is coming along on schedule but the full project will soon go on pause:

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John Schoettler, Amazon’s real estate head, said in a statement the company is pushing out the groundbreaking of PenPlace, the second phase of the sprawling northern Virginia campus. The first phase of the campus, known as Metropolitan Park, is expected to open on time this June and will be occupied by 8,000 employees.

The move comes as Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has taken steps to curtail expenses across the company in the face of slowing revenue and a gloomy economic outlook. That’s led to the company announcing the largest layoffs in its history, totaling more than 18,000 employees, while also reevaluating its real estate portfolio and sunsetting some projects…

PenPlace encompasses three 22-story office buildings, more than 100,000 square feet of retail space and a 350-foot-tall tower, called “The Helix.” The development is larger than Metropolitan Park, which sits south of PenPlace, and includes two additional, 22-story office towers, as well as a mixed-use site featuring retail, restaurants and green spaces.

Amazon selected Arlington as the site of HQ2, in addition to the Long Island City neighborhood of Queens, New York, as part of a closely watched, splashy search for a second headquarters that kicked off in 2017. The company announced in 2019 it would halt plans to build its new headquarters in New York after it faced pushback from local activists and city council leaders.

Numerous communities across the United States submitted proposals to host this second headquarters and the company sought tax breaks. The promise of the new headquarters involved at least these two big features: the status of Amazon in your community plus the thousands of jobs in a corporate headquarters.

With the changes in the world, will these promises pan out for Arlington, Virginia and the D.C. metro area? It sounds like at least 8,000 employees will be onsite. However, the headquarters may never be as big as once envisioned. Does Amazon have the same status in 2023 that it did in 2017? This include everything from its financial outlook to its recent layoffs to changes in the everyday Amazon experience for customers.

On the whole, I would guess local leaders will still pitch this as a big win. We got Amazon and all these jobs (and implying that others did not). The long-term effects might be less clear, particularly if tax breaks for Amazon and opportunity costs and the longer-term fortunes of the company are factored in.

Do sports fans want shorter games, more action, or a higher action to time ratio?

Baseball has taken significant steps this season to shorten the game through new features like a clock for pitchers and batters. A growing consensus over recent years has suggested fans want shorter games. College football is considering shortening games. However, in the absence of data I have encountered about what fans actually want, I wonder if it is really about shorter games. These might be two other options that sports fans in America want:

-More action. Studies have shown sports like baseball and football actually do not have much game action across the multiple hour experience. Pitch clocks make the action happen quicker but do not necessarily mean there will be more balls in play or runners on base. Baseball has moved in recent years to more three true outcomes: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. These involve limited action.

-A higher action to time ratio. Perhaps what fans want is not shorter time but more action within the time of the game. Shortening the time with no change to the action would provide a higher ratio. Shortened times plus more action would further increase the ratio. Other sports have more flow or continuous action, like hockey or soccer (though many American fans might consider these action low-stakes or boring action). Or, watching a condensed game where the time between all pitches or all football plays is removed can be an interesting experience.

I suspect there might be plenty of experimentation in the coming years regarding finding formulas for sports in order to retain or attract the attention of fans. This will also happen with ongoing interaction with other forms of entertainment that offer different experiences and timelines.

Apartments and housingcome to the shopping malls of the OC

Orange County might be as paradigmatic of postwar suburbania as any county in the United States. Now, its shopping malls are in for a change many malls are considering: adding apartments and housing units.

“This is really our opportunity to create something that we can be absolutely proud of for the next generation to create those same fond memories that I have and that others have in a fashion that is consistent with what the times are now,” Cordon said.

Bill Shopoff said his company, which purchased the Macy’s store and the former Sears store in the Westminster Mall last year, hopes to draw people back with shops, a hotel, townhouses and apartments…

As for who will rent or purchase the homes in his preliminary plan, Shopoff is counting on a modern type of suburban dweller — one who would rather walk to restaurants and other amenities than live in a single-family home with a yard.

Experts say that new laws, along with increased pressure from the state to build more homes, have convinced some local officials who might have been resistant to rezoning commercial properties in the past…

In Laguna Hills, the mall is being repurposed along the lines of Caruso’s Los Angeles-area developments, with up to 1,500 apartments, an upscale hotel, commercial office space and 250,000 square feet of stores surrounding a large green space.

This is one of the leading strategies in a competitive shopping malls market. By building apartments, developers can add residents who will be on-site and who will patronize restaurants and stores as well as remove some of the commercial property that is now hard to fill in the Internet economy. The idea is that the malls become vibrant, mixed-use locations where people are out at all hours consuming goods and food.

If all the Orange County malls go this route, will they all make it? Even in a relatively wealthy area, not all the malls will survive.

Residential population in Chicago’s Loop has grown

A new population estimate in Chicago’s Loop suggests the number of residents increased in recent years:

The number of residents in the Loop — as the city’s central business district is known — grew by almost 9% since 2020, according to estimates from the Chicago Loop Alliance…

Population in the Loop, an area bounded by the Chicago River on the north and west sides, stands at 46,000, with the number of residents expected to grow another 17% by 2028, the group estimates. About 95% of residential properties are occupied, up from the pandemic low of 87%, and a rate that exceeds 2019 levels…

Most of the Loop’s population is 25 to 34 years old, with more than 80% living alone or with one person. Almost half don’t own a car and the majority cite the ability to walk to places, the central location and proximity to work as top reasons for living downtown…

The future of the Loop will also be more residential. Another 5,000 housing units are expected to be added by 2028, bringing the district’s total population to 54,000, according to the report. The estimates assume the global economy avoids a major recession, that the cost of building doesn’t become prohibitive and that city incentives to convert commercial blocks into homes move forward. Crime, rising property taxes and developments elsewhere are also threats to the forecast.

It will be interesting to see if and how this trend continues. Does this mean office space converted into residences? New development in the Loop where there are city-wide political battles on where development should be encouraged? Population growth in one part of the city while the population drops elsewhere?

Regardless of the larger context of what has happened in the Loop in the last few years, I am guessing this data point will be used to support development and civic plans.

Do big bureaucracies or democracies have customer-service problems?

Americans can find it difficult to find accountability with government or businesses:

Democracy’s ideal is built on a foundation of accountability. In the past, many, if not most, of the decisions that mattered to our lives were taken by people and businesses that felt close to us. That’s not the case anymore. Now all roads seem to lead to bad hold music.

Whenever we encounter a problem we didn’t create—like my outrageous electricity charge, or vacations ruined by an incompetent airline, or hospital-billing errors, or a mix-up at the IRS—all we can really do is go online for a customer-service number and cross our fingers that, by some miracle, the call won’t consume the entire day, or worse. When a person coping with cancer treatment spends hours on the phone with her insurance company or Medicaid, she may wonder why her society is so cruel, or so incompetent, or both. And she may start to see the appeal of a demagogue who promises to deliver simple solutions: the “I alone can fix it” candidate…

In the European Union, if an airline causes a flight delay of more than three hours, it has to pay you 250 to 600 euros, depending on the length of the flight. In the U.K., when a train is more than 15 minutes late, I can go to a website and, in a few minutes, demand financial compensation.

For the most part in America, when you screw up, you pay, but when corporations or governments screw up, nobody pays. Even when protections do exist, they’re difficult to navigate, or are unknown to most citizens. Other democracies have made clear it doesn’t have to be that way. It’s not rocket science to solve such maddening everyday problems, and American democracy would be better off if the government devoted more effort to it.

Government could indeed be more on the side of residents rather than the side of corporations and itself.

But, I wonder if a good number of Americans would see this as an inevitable function of the size of government or business. When these actors become large, it can be harder for decisions to be made and mistakes righted. Big government and big business become caught up in trying to achieve their own goals rather than caring about the little people.

There is a long history of this thinking in the United States. How much should the federal or state government control? Do the best ideas come from established entities or from startups and more nimble organizations? It is also part of the appeal of suburbs to many where residents can have more access to and more participation in local government and decisions. One perception is that local governments have to make things work for everyday life to go on.

As sociologist Max Weber noted, bureaucracies can be efficient and necessary in the modern era but they can also lead to an iron cage. Can governments that clearly work for the people reduce this feeling of the iron cage?

Barbie’s DreamHouses and American houses

A new book shows how the Barbie DreamHouse changed over time:

The monograph, which the publishers say is “the first architectural survey of the world’s best-selling dollhouse”, features glossy images of the houses captured by fashion photographer Evelyn Pustka, alongside detailed architectural drawings…

The homes themselves range from contemporary influencer houses all the way back to the mid-century bungalow of the 60s.

In this way, the book establishes the Dreamhouse as an early example of homes turning from private domains into a means of expressing and performing our personality for others – alongside the Eames house, the Playboy apartments and Jackie Kennedy’s televised tour of the White House in 1962…

“So there’s this bifurcation where the Dreamhouse is more in conversation with McMansions, which might reference postmodern architecture but lose the kind of ironic quoting involved in using Doric columns.”

The emphasis here seems to be on how the Barbie homes reflected architectural styles. However, how much did these toys shape architectural styles? As people played with these houses, how did it change their perceptions of houses? This might be difficult to ascertain but presentations of homes and what is normal or aspirational can help shape what people expect.

A question: have any constructed houses been inspired by the Barbie DreamHouses? This could be another signal of how Barbie has affected homes.

Homeowner’s wealth drops in recent months but still up significantly from beginning of pandemic

The amount of wealth homeowners in the United States has dropped in recent months:

U.S. homeowners have lost $2.3 trillion since June, according to a new report from the real-estate brokerage Redfin. The total value of U.S. homes was $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% from a record high of $47.7 trillion in June. That figure signifies the largest June-to-December percentage decline since 2008.

But housing wealth is significantly up since the beginning of COVID-19:

“The housing market has shed some of its value, but most homeowners will still reap big rewards from the pandemic housing boom. The total value of U.S. homes remains roughly $13 trillion higher than it was in February 2020, the month before the coronavirus was declared a pandemic,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao in the report.

“Unfortunately, a lot of people were left behind. Many Americans couldn’t afford to buy homes even when mortgage rates hit rock bottom in 2021, which means they missed out on a significant wealth building opportunity,” Zhao added.

If many Americans view housing as an investment, then owning a home during the pandemic has paid off. Just by being a homeowner at the right time, they benefited.

Hence, I am a little confused by the story that leads with the recent data. The recent drop is just a portion of the big gain from February 2020 on. People do feel losses strongly but the bigger picture is that homeowners have gained much in recent years.

The two reasons I try to work far ahead of deadlines

I recently completed a draft of a research paper a day and a half of a deadline. I had worked on launching this paper for months and it felt good to complete it. After I met the deadline, I thought again about the process: why do I regularly work ahead of deadlines? Here are two reasons:

  1. I have more time to think. If I can start writing earlier, the writing process helps me think. Just having to write means I think about what I am saying and then having words down also pushes me to think about how the argument will continue or resolve. The time it takes to think through and develop academic arguments is underrated as I find it difficult to come up with a nicely framed argument in one sitting or at a particular moment. Even when I think I have the writing complete or have completed a section, working ahead of a deadline means I then have time to let it sit and I can consider it more clearly.
  2. You never know what might come up day to day to prevent writing, thinking, and making progress toward the deadline. This can range from things that limit thinking – a new issue that arises – to changes in the calendar or daily schedule – a person to care for, a new meeting – to who knows what. As a deadline approaches, it is hard to know what might arise, even if I have clearly blocked out time to work on a project. If I work further ahead, I can accept these changes and work around them more easily.

Would this approach work for everyone? No. It might not even have worked for me earlier as a student or as a sociologist where I had greater capacity to sit down and write a lot in one long sitting and had fewer interruptions or impediments to such sessions. Deadlines can be helpful motivators, even if some work ahead of them and others work on projects more closely to their due dates.

Collective effervescence in dancing all night at the club

An overview of the unique experience of the nightclub dance floor hints at Durkheim’s idea of collective effervescence:

Photo by Mauru00edcio Mascaro on Pexels.com

“I feel one with the crowd of energy and lose my sense of self. I don’t feel myself as expressing anything in particular on the dance floor, I’m doing the opposite—I’m just being present in the moment, dancing, being a part of the greater whole of the night. I’m able to do this because I become engulfed in the intense sensations from the music, lights, and the energies that reverberate from the rest of those dancing,” said Jason Friedlander, another dance floor patron from Manila, Philippines. 

For Friedlander, dance floors are a place where differences dissipate, conflict seizes, and equality reigns. 

“On the dance floor socio-economic hierarchies are leveled and each becomes equally subject to the wonders of melody and rhythm. Unlike other communities fostered through sports teams or most organized religions, the cult of music is neither founded on conflict nor opposition, but on harmony.”

Get caught up in the music, the crowd, and dancing and the group on the dance floor is melded together through the common activity and energy.

Is such an experience available to anyone who joins the dance floor? How much do the conditions of the club/venue and the particular participants shape the collective effervescence?

Why aren’t there more cars and vehicles that serve as moving billboards?

At the Chicago Auto Show, I noticed two unique cars that advertised something: an art show and a suburb.

The first car is not unique in its context. Every Nascar vehicle is covered in sponsorships. This one is unusual in that a suburb, Elk Grove Village, is continuing a marketing campaign that included sponsoring college bowl games.

But, why not have cars and trucks driving around the Chicago region with the same branding? It probably does not cost much to put decals or magnets or paint jobs on vehicles and then have a bunch of vehicles advertising “Makers Wanted.” This might be particularly helpful in a region with hundreds of suburbs and where there is a perceived need among some suburbs that they need to stand out for particular reasons.

The second car is a more unusual advertisement: an art exhibit at a world-class art museum. The Art Institute does not advertise broadly in mass media. But, what if there were a lot of Van Gogh vehicles driving along local roads? (There would need to be allowances for the “Van Go” jokes.”) Van Gogh and his works are widely known and some people might even want a Van Gogh painting on their vehicle for aesthetic reasons.

Even with all the colorful paint jobs at the Auto Show this year (lots of bright blue and yellow), this could be an opportunity for someone or some place to exploit without having to pay too much.