Author Archives: legallysociable

Adjusting rail transit to a decline in the 9-5 commuter

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The Chicago region is built around a hub-and-spoke railroad system. But, what happens to those railroads when fewer people take the train into the city five days a week?

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The 9 a.m.-5 p.m., five-days-a-week-in-an-office commuter is an endangered species on the brink of extinction. And that reality poses an existential crisis for transit agencies, especially commuter rails like Metra.

Now the agency’s post-pandemic recovery plans are coming into focus, and commuters could soon feel changes, from some increased fares to new ridership packages that will make a popular 10-ride card obsolete.

But perhaps the most interesting shift is Metra’s attempt to market itself as more than a vehicle to get white-collar workers downtown…

The plan is also focused on promoting non-downtown trips, which Metra sees as a growth opportunity. To encourage a trip to the zoo, for example, one-way tickets that don’t include a downtown starting point or destination would cost $3.75 regardless of distance…

Even if Metra wanted to add more frequent trains — which Gillis said it does — that change can’t happen overnight. Mixing up schedules would likely require infrastructure updates and new agreements with the freight railroads that share the tracks Metra trains travel on. All that would come at a cost, which may be out of reach for an agency barrelling toward a budgetary crisis.

One issue that is very difficult to address: is the railroad infrastructure in the Chicago region just not in the right places? The hub-and-spoke model worked for decades but more commuting is suburb to suburb. The region needs rail lines and other mass transit options that link suburbs and suburban job centers. Even just adding one or two dependable connector options between the Metra lines could be a big help. (See the proposed STAR Line.)

Another route to pursue: continue to encourage communities to build more transit-oriented development that can help create a larger residential base who can easily hop on and off railroad lines. I was recently on a suburban railroad line and saw a family with small kids hop on for three stops and get off. If more people can easily walk to a station, travel quickly and reliability, and find something interesting within a short walk a few stops away, they will do so. What might be good for local development can also be good for Metra.

Housing migrants amid a tight housing supply

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New York City does not have much available housing and this leads to problems:

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You can see it by looking at residential-vacancy rates, which have been as low as 2 percent in recent years. You can tell by looking at the size and price of rentals and homes for purchase: The average rent in Manhattan is more than $4,000, and the average home in Brooklyn costs roughly $1 million. You can see it in the shrinking of New York’s middle class and the stagnation of its population and the widening of its income and wealth inequality. Housing supply has simply not kept pace with housing demand, squeezing everyone except for the very rich.

The same forces shunting families to the suburbs are weighing on the migrants. The same forces driving New Yorkers out of unaffordable apartments and into homeless shelters are weighing on the migrants. Migrants cannot afford housing for the same reason that the city itself struggles to raise money for new facilities. New York really is full…

High housing costs have a way of making every problem a housing problem. A homeless person needing help with a substance-abuse disorder needs housing first. A migrant requiring legal aid more pressingly needs a roof over their head. And high housing costs, of course, force millions of vulnerable people into homelessness. “Our homeless-response system has turned into a crisis-response system,” Gregg Colburn, an associate real-estate professor at the University of Washington’s College of Built Environments, told me. “So many other systems have failed or delegated responsibility to it.”

The opposite is also true: Low housing costs make other problems simpler to solve. Cheap housing reduces the number of people who become homeless. It also allows the entities providing assistance to do more for less, because their overhead costs are lower. And it frees up lawyers to work on immigration cases, substance-use experts to work on substance-use issues, and mental-health counselors to work on mental-health issues.

It is enough to make one think that seriously and sufficiently addressing housing should be a major priority!

The problem is not just limited to New York City. Multiple big cities in the United States need more housing units and lower-priced yet good quality housing. Having a stable place to live at a reasonable price goes a long way to better life outcomes and opportunities.

But, adding a lot of good housing takes a lot of work and there does not seem to be political will to address it. Additionally, it can be easy to look for other solutions to some of the different problems listed above. Would building more good housing automatically solve these issues? No, but it could help a lot and make it more possible for people to live and enjoy major cities.

Chicago once had the country’s busiest port

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Chicago is a transportation center, and it once was home to a thriving port:

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In 1871, the city’s one-of-a-kind water link between the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River helped make it the country’s busiest port, one that lured more ships than New York, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Charleston and Mobile combined, according to the Encyclopedia of Chicago…

These days, Chicago is much better known for busy railroad lines, air traffic, and highways.

Intriguingly, Chicago still has access to major bodies of water. Whether they are in as much demand as the past and whether they are in good enough shape to handle more traffic (the subject of the article cited above) are other matters. Could there be a future world where more goods and materials go by ship and Chicago benefits from its location that can link the Atlantic, the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi?

Founding a new city in 2023? Quietly buying up property, sending out text surveys

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If you wanted to found a new community today, how would you do it? One group is buying up a lot of acres in the Bay Area and sending out surveys:

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Amid a flurry of rumors about a mysterious buyer who has purchased 52,000 acres in Solano County, local residents have received a survey gauging support for a “new city with tens of thousands of new homes.”…

Screenshots of the survey reviewed by SFGATE show an extensive market research campaign. It starts by informing recipients that they will be weighing in on “a description of an initiative that might be on the ballot in Solano County next year” regarding a new development in eastern Solano County.

“This project would include a new city with tens of thousands of new homes, a large solar energy farm, orchards with over a million new trees, and over ten thousand acres of new parks and open space,” the survey continues…

Since news of Flannery’s acquisitions broke, locals have speculated the buyer could be planning anything from a deep water port to a regional airport to even a nuclear power plant. But building a new city from scratch would present its own set of challenges. For one, the developer would need to acquire water rights to support large suburban housing tracts. And, according to Farley, it would need to change Solano County’s “orderly growth” policy, which restricts urban development in many parts of the county.

Buying up land quietly has a long history. If plans are made public, land prices can go up. People start raising objections. Thus, developers try to acquire land behind the scenes and then make a proposal.

The text polls are interesting. Presumably, they can help the buyers/developers tweak their plan and/or public pitch for development. The data might not be great – how many local residents will respond to an anonymous poll? – but it could provides hint of what locals see as doable or what they do not like.

Almost regardless of what is proposed for this land, expect a lot of response. Housing is needed in the Bay Area but neighbors and leaders will certainly have concerns. Additionally, I would expect commentary on how the process has progressed to that point.

“August 2023 will become the worst month for housing affordability this century”

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Housing in the United States is becoming less affordable than at any point in recent years:

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On Monday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.48%, marking the highest level since the year 2000. Even prior to this recent surge in mortgage rates, housing affordability, as monitored by the Atlanta Fed, had already deteriorated beyond the levels seen at the housing bubble’s peak in 2006. Once this latest mortgage rate surge is factored in, August 2023 will become the worst month for housing affordability this century.

The journey to this predicament can be traced back to last year’s sharp rise in mortgage rates, which escalated from 3% to over 7%. That rate surge, coupled with the Pandemic Housing Boom pushing U.S. home prices up over 40% in just over two years, deteriorated housing affordability across the nation…

While the current lack of housing affordability echoes the affordability conditions leading up to the 2008 housing crash, there are distinct differences that set the two periods apart. Unlike the years preceding the 2008 crash, the nation is not grappling with an excessive surplus of existing homes for sale. In fact, housing inventory levels are hovering at historic lows, with July 2023 witnessing a staggering 47% decline in homes available for sale compared to July 2019.

Furthermore, the U.S. housing market in 2023 is not plagued by the risky mortgage products that contributed to the 2008 bust. In fact, the Pandemic Housing Boom was the opposite of the boom in the aughts: This boom was primarily led by households with high incomes, who because of low mortgage rates and remote-work policies were seeking out a new home.

I am a little surprised there are not more leaders proposing solutions or calling for addressing this issue. Housing is often the biggest expense in a household budget. People may not be able to find stable, quality housing. They will not be able to develop wealth. It is difficult to move. People will pay more in interest. People can experience anxiety about housing. And so on.

There might be a temptation to sit back and say people should wait for interest rates to stabilize and/or decline. Or, the housing market will have more inventory at some point.

Yet, housing is a complicated issue and there are multiple ways to address it. How can more housing at lower price points be built? How can existing homeowners rally for the need for cheaper housing costs (even as they might benefit from rising home values)? What incentives or sticks are needed to get various actors in the housing industry moving on providing more options?

One reason for more studio and one-bedroom apartments: not all places want more children in the community

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A Chicago housing report looks at what kid of rental units have been constructed in recent years:

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Chicago is seeing more rental housing developments geared toward families like the Matariyehs, as buildings with higher concentrations of two-bedroom or larger apartments are coming on the market or under construction. On top of the shortage of housing broadly, there is also a shortage of family-sized rental housing — typically defined as units with two or more bedrooms — in Chicago and nationally. Rental housing for families that is affordable is in especially limited supply, as two- to four-flats have continued to be gobbled up or priced up by gentrification in Chicago.

A 2020 report from the Chicago Department of Housing finds that for the past decade, market-rate construction has leaned heavily toward studio and one-bedroom units, which, in turn, has shaped affordable housing production. For affordable housing developed through the city’s Affordable Requirements Ordinance — the policy which requires many developers to make a chunk of their units affordable housing — more than 75% of units under construction or completed as of 2020 were studios and one-bedrooms, with less than 5% being three-bedroom units or larger, according to the city report.

Whether in city neighborhoods or suburban communities, larger units mean more children might be present. Children need to go to school. Children can create noise. Children might be drawn to different local amenities than others.

Some of this is a cost question. Housing proposals in suburbs can often into details about how many children might be attending local schools. How will these costs be covered?

Some of this might be a lifestyle question. The explosion of developments and communities for older residents appeals to a particular set of people. Or, more American households include only one person.

When thinking about more expensive developments in cities and suburbs, many places look at two groups of residents they want to target: young professionals and downsizing seniors. The first group is college-educated and is looking for a package of culture and entertainment. The second group is looking to move to a smaller space and enjoy life in ways they might not have been able to with work and/or family obligations.

There will always be at least a few places and developments that appeal to families. Suburbs, for example, can be known for being family-friendly. There is money to be made here.

But, shifts in households and lifestyles may mean an increasing number of places with relatively few or no children – and this is reinforced by the built environment.

Giving books away to build relationships, share good reading

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I do not know if I could ever do this regularly but I like this sentiment:

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But what if, in this quest to declutter, we think about our physical books not as baubles with which to impress potential mates, but as a way to exist in, and relate to, the world. When you give a book away, you have given it the opportunity to befriend a stranger. You’ve given it the opportunity to dazzle, to dismay, to make an impression. And no, you’ll probably never cross paths with that book again. Even a loan will not find its way home to you. But if you’re lucky, some years from now, you may hear someone mention a scene, or allude to a plot, or even misquote a passage, and you will recognize the spirit of your old friend, even outside its corporeal form: “I read that once, a long time ago,” you’ll say. You’ll say, “I loved it, too.”

As someone who likes to read, it is often a private experience. A book can involve you in a story or a world of new ideas. A lot happens in your own head and body. Sometimes you get to talk about all of this – the experience, the content, the style, etc. – with others. Lots of classes are built on this idea where you come together around texts you have all read.

Actually giving away books, especially ones you enjoyed and want others to enjoy, can have benefits. Building social capital is good. Sharing experiences and ideas is good. Perhaps that next person is also able to pass along the book.

While I am not giving books away, I have taken to buying cheaper copies of ones I really like so I can share them. Perhaps this is a small step in a similar direction. I know certain books have influenced me and I hope they might also influence others.

The possibilities of linking together sets of data

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I saw multiple interesting presentations at ASA this year that linked together several datasets to develop robust analysis and interesting findings. These data sources included government data, data collected by the researchers, and other available data. Doing this unlocks a lot of possibilities for answering research questions.

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But, how might this happen more regularly? Or, put differently, how might more researchers use multiple datasets in a single project? Here are some quick thoughts on what could help make this possible:

-More access to data. Some data is publicly available. Other data is restricted for a variety of reasons. Having more big datasets accessible opens up possibilities. Just knowing where to request data is a process plus whatever applications and/or resources might be needed to access it.

-Having the know-how to put datasets together. It takes work to become familiar with a single dataset. To be able to merge data requires additional work. I do not know if it would be useful to offer more instruction in doing this or whether it matters which individual datasets are involved.

-Asking research questions gets more interesting and complicated with more variables and layers at play. Constructing sets of questions that build on the strengths of the combined data is a skill.

-Including more – but concise and understandable – explanations of how the data was merged in publications can help demystify the process.

And with all of this data innovation, it is interesting to consider how projects that link multiple datasets complement and come alongside other projects with only one source of data.

The growth of the South required air conditioning

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The South is hot during the summer – especially so this year – and architectural adaptations to deal with the heat have given way to air conditioning:

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“They would build homes with transoms over the doors and over the windows,” Dr. Diaz explained. “They would build homes with the front door and the back door in complete alignment — you could basically create a wind current through the house.”

Days were structured around the heat, waking at 4 a.m. to work outside, then taking breaks and eating a big meal in the middle of the day…

The ascendance of air-conditioning was a transformative force in the South, facilitating the rise of suburbs and making the region less forbidding for companies that wanted to move in. Now, transoms and rising early have been replaced with drive-throughs and attached garages and cranking up the A.C. — for people with the means and jobs that allow it.

“People are so completely dependent on air-conditioning,” said Craig E. Colten, a professor of geography at Louisiana State University. “You run around on our campus and you see people going between classes in shorts and sweatshirts because the air-conditioning is so ramped up.”

Even as air conditioning makes inside activity more possible, it would be interesting to see how much activity during the hot months takes place inside compared to the rest of the year. If people in colder climes spend more time inside during the cold months, is the same true in the South during the summer?

And do not forget the importance of air conditioning for office work.

Instituting racial covenants for whole neighborhoods outside of Kansas City

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Developer J.C. Nichols helped popularize the implementation of racial covenants for whole suburban subdivisions:

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Also known as covenants, they’d existed for decades, typically as an agreement between a developer and buyer on a single lot, proving unpopular to Americans who didn’t want to be controlled on their own property. But Nichols sensed he could foster long-term stability, which would be profitable for him and for homeowners. He initiated restrictions on entire neighborhoods, placing them on the land before any lots were sold—a private zoning system before municipal zoning was widespread. He’s credited as the first developer to emphasize the covenants for middle-class areas and to make them self-renew after periods of 25 to 40 years unless a majority of residents objected, ensuring they’d essentially last forever. For enforcement, he set up homeowners associations.

Nichols’ restrictions started with a few sentences on neighborhood plat documents and eventually ran for a few pages. They set minimum prices for home construction, mandated single-family housing and banned apartments, required a specified amount of space on the fronts and sides of homes, and regulated routine housing elements like chimneys, trellises, windows, vestibules, and porches.

There were also racial restrictions that barred Black residents from owning or renting homes. An early billboard for Nichols’ Country Club District development described the area as “1,000 Acres Restricted.” Newspaper ads claimed that Nichols’ neighborhoods blocked “all undesirable encroachments” and promised that “complete uniformity is here assured.”…

Nobody had seen a swath of suburbia as vast his neighborhoods, which comprised the Country Club District: By the 1940s there were more than a dozen contiguous upper-class and middle-class subdivisions filled with bubbling fountains, tree-lined vistas, and cul-de-sacs, providing homes for as many as 50,000 people across two states. Many subdivisions were buffered by parks and golf courses, and they were all tied together with restrictive covenants. It was the “American’s domestic ideal,” opined a visitor from the New Republic.

Nichols wasn’t the only builder applying covenants. Their use accelerated after 1910, imposing segregation and strict land-development rules across the country. But he was their most prominent proselytizer, promoting their spread through speeches and articles and in leadership roles with national real estate organizations. Nichols’ covenants in Sunset Hill and Mission Hills, two of his poshest neighborhoods, were said by his company to have been copied in more than 50 cities.

Developers, officials, residents, and others developed and put into practice a number of measures to keep people out of white suburban subdivisions. Today, these measures tend to be more economic and zoning-based with fewer explicit references to race and ethnicity. But, as noted above, the outcomes are clear: the suburbs were segregated by race and ethnicity.