Category Archives: Sociology

Basing arguments on absolute numbers vs. rates of gun violence

Posted on by

Can different statistics about the same topic support different arguments? If looking at gun violence, here is one conclusion based on rates:

Photo by Lukas on Pexels.com

In reality, the region the Big Apple comprises most of is far and away the safest part of the U.S. mainland when it comes to gun violence, while the regions Florida and Texas belong to have per capita firearm death rates (homicides and suicides) three to four times higher than New York’s. On a regional basis it’s the southern swath of the country — in cities and rural areas alike — where the rate of deadly gun violence is most acute, regions where Republicans have dominated state governments for decades.

Similarly, a 2022 brief posted by Drexel’s Urban Health Collaborative shows big differences in per capita gun deaths in major American cities with New York at the bottom of the listed cities.

But, the data could be interpreted in another way. Rates are expressed in the number of occurrences per a set amount of population. What do the absolute numbers say about gun deaths? One compilation of data from The University of Sydney shows 804 gun deaths in 2019.

Or, here is a 2022 article in the New York Times looking at shootings in the city:

Shootings are twice as high as in the years preceding the pandemic, and the burden falls primarily on Black and Latino neighborhoods. More than 1,800 shootings were reported annually in the past two years after dropping under 900 in 2018.

The absolute numbers sound high and can contribute to perceptions:

But fresh anxieties have driven warnings about a return to New York’s “bad old days,” when there were many years with more than 2,000 murders. To some, the resemblance between the periods lies not in the crime or the data, but in the coverage.

Rates are often used because they help make comparisons across communities with different population sizes. New York City has more shootings but it is also the largest city in the United States by a lot. There will be more crimes to possibly report on in a larger city but that is in part because of having a larger population.

Of course, if we are at a point where people just want to find a statistical interpretation that fits their perspective, we have bigger problems on our hands than simply discussing what numbers best reflect realities.

(See this earlier post involving rates on whether Chicago is the “murder capital” of the United States.)

What exactly one YouTube video tell us or does not tell us, car dealer inventory edition

Posted on by

I recent read this summary of a YouTube video purportedly showing a car dealer stashing new cars in a parking garage so that their outdoor lots look emptier:

Photo by ThisIsEngineering on Pexels.com

Los Angeles-based car YouTuber effspot stumbled across something we’ve heard about but haven’t been able to dig up solid evidence of: dealerships are hiding a ton of new inventory in secret locations. Now you might think these dealers are putting their overstock vehicles in some secure location like a warehouse or locked lot, and some definitely are, but effspot found hundreds of Jeeps, Dodges, Rams, and Chryslers stashed in a public parking garage, all apparently put there by just one dealership.

This is a potentially interesting find. How common is this?

Dealerships have been running this scheme for months and months, but it’s starting to fall apart despite some media outlets trying to claim there may be no return to normal for the car market. Instead, both the new and used markets are going in only one direction: down. Just how quickly and by how much remains to be seen, but don’t believe car dealerships have hardly any vehicles and need to overcharge you big time for the privilege of new car ownership.

So we go from one parking garage is “dealerships have been running this scheme for months and months”? Roughly 51 seconds into the YouTube video, the maker says “these dealerships, or at least this particular dealership” has engaged in these practices. Later, at 5:52, he asks whether this is happening around the country.

This does not necessarily mean the larger argument is not true. But, the evidence presented here shows one parking garage and cars from one dealer. How broad is this practice? We do not know from this video and story.

This might just be the daily story of the Internet and social media. Interesting things are posted. Information is shared. People describe their experiences. But, it is difficult to know how this matches larger patterns or not. An individual reader might be able to make connections across stories. Or, people online could connect the dots for others. For example, others could make videos on YouTube detailing their finds of auto inventory in different locations. Sometimes these connections are made, often they are not. The next day comes and there is more information to process and relatively little that helps fit all the pieces together.

Encourage more and more building in cities – and get more and more luxury apartments

Posted on by

Efforts to encourage more housing in big American cities can often lead to more units for the wealthy:

Photo by Kozymeii Kong on Pexels.com

Academics, developers and people in their 20s and 30s—particularly those most active on social media—have reached an unusual level of consensus. Their solution, supported by a wealth of scholarly research, is simple and elegant: Loosen regulations, such as zoning, and build more homes of any kind—cheap, modest and palatial…

Inconveniently for the Yimbys, Austin, like other cities, is still way more expensive than it was years ago, even though it’s built so many apartments. As a result, a small group of academics is starting to question the free-market path. These critics note that the market leads developers to build luxury housing on scarce and sought-after property to maximize the return on their investment. “Yimbys say, ‘We have to let the market build,’ ” says Benjamin Teresa, an urban planning scholar at Virginia Commonwealth University. “But what kind of housing are you building, and for whom?”…

But the very popularity of these places with the affluent drives up housing costs, making it harder for companies to find workers and pushing firms to relocate elsewhere. The Austin metro area, one of the fastest-growing in the US, with a population exceeding 2 million, has benefited from corporations fleeing the high cost of housing elsewhere, particularly on the east and west coasts of the US. Home of the University of Texas’ flagship campus, it’s lured Elon Musk’s Tesla, along with Oracle, from Silicon Valley. JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab are expanding there, too...

Frustration over rising rents has led cities to consider government interventions that were once deemed discredited. Boston, Orlando and Kingston, New York, have taken fresh looks at rent control, which had been blamed for distorting the market and raising the cost of other apartments.

If a builder or developer gets the green light to build housing, why would they choose to build cheaper units if they can build more expensive units and make more money?

As the article notes, perhaps this requires cities to see housing as not just a market good or something subject to market fluctuations. If housing is just another commodity that requires a big return on investment, why not go big in asking for expensive rates? Rent control or publicly subsidized housing may require more intervention, but they could also be necessary to provide any housing within the reach of residents with fewer resources.

Which cities are able to successfully buck these trends will be interesting to see. If policies become more explicit about affordable housing units, will developers push back publicly? Will an important city then see a downturn in building and investment?

Can McMansions be made suitable for aging residents?

Posted on by

As I have studied McMansions, I found numerous suggestions that aging residents may not want such homes given their current needs. This recent explanation sums up some of the possible issues older residents face:

Photo by RODNAE Productions on Pexels.com

The McMansion purchased years ago with its acres of ground might now seem too much to handle. With younger family members gone, there may not seem to be so much motivation for larger space. Homes with high balconies and difficult to maneuver staircases present safety challenges. Communities that maintain the grounds can be attractive.

Do the issues older residents face necessarily preclude having a McMansion? In the paragraph above, here are the issues mentioned and the ways McMansions might actually help address these issues:

  1. Too much property. Could the McMansion be expanded to take up even more of the property? Or, convert that two-story McMansion into a more sprawling McMansion ranch. While McMansions are sometimes criticized for their size compared to their neighbors, having loss property to maintain could be a plus.
  2. Fewer family members in the house so less space is needed. But, Americans love buying more stuff and instead of paying for self-storage a McMansion owner can make use of the extra interior space. They can age in place with all of their stuff.
  3. High balconies and interesting staircases could pose problems. Yet, with the space inside a McMansion, could not all of these areas be addressed by renovations? Instead of a twisting staircase, make use of some of that grand foyer to build a straight staircase with a lift.
  4. How about more McMansion neighborhoods with HOAs? Millions of Americans already live with HOAs so why not put them to work here making sure grounds and housing exteriors are kept up as residents age?

Sure, smaller spaces might be attractive for seniors but it can be hard to give up space once one has lived with it. There may be plenty of opportunities for older Americans to remain in McMansions if they want to and there are models for how this can be done.

An acceptable suburban lawn must be green, full, weed-free, and an even height

Posted on by

At this time of year, the lawns of the Chicago area are slowly emerging. Some residents are already mowing to address one key feature of an acceptable suburban lawn: it must be even.

You can have a green, full, and weed-free lawn but it is not complete if it is uneven. This primarily has to do with grass height. The acceptable lawn is uniform. The grass looks like a flat surface. It does not have to look exactly like a golf fairway or green but the idea is the same. A lawn with weird dips and rises can also make it look uneven compared to a flat surface or a continually sloping area.

In the spring, the grass may be particularly uneven. Some of it is due to the activity of dogs. Some of it has to do with all the rain and moisture the grass has had. The growth might be different across a lawn, meaning mowing would lower the height of the grass in some spots and not be needed elsewhere.

This time will pass as more growth, higher temperatures, and regular mowing evens out lawns. For those who like lawns that do not have a uniform height, now is the time to enjoy.

How suburbs can lose millions in revenue when office parks sit empty

Posted on by

The changes to offices in one Minneapolis suburb illustrate the money at stake for suburban communities:

Photo by Flo Dahm on Pexels.com

One surprising victim might be the Twin Cities suburbs. Take the 64,000-person suburb of Eagan, Minnesota where, earlier this year, two announcements upended the commercial landscape. Two of the city’s largest employers terminated leases at massive office parks, both of which served as local corporate headquarters…

Because commercial property is taxed at a higher rate than residential, for a city like Eagan, with a $42 million budget, the loss of two large corporate headquarters is a hit to its bottom line. In 2022, the two office parks provided about $3 million in tax dollars to the city, county and school board. (The city of Eagan’s cut of the tax revenue sits at around a third of that total.) 

Whatever happens to these two sites, they’ll likely be assessed at much lower values moving forward, likely swaying the rest of the suburban commercial real estate market. This puts pressure on Eagan’s single-family residential property to make up the difference, shifting the low-tax balance that draws people to live second-ring suburbs in the first place.

For their part, Eagan city leaders say these kinds of economic changes are nothing new, and the city is well-positioned to survive…

She cited the changing loss of previous corporate headquarters in the city, including Lockheed Martin and Northwest Airlines, both of which disappeared due to mergers or outsourcing.

Multiple forces are at work:

  1. Corporate offices change over time, before and after COVID-19. This suburb has seen companies go before and they found different businesses to lease office space.
  2. It is less clear the direction of the current office space market and financial markets are nervous. With more work from home and more Internet business, how much physical office space is necessary in the coming years?
  3. Filled office parks can help suburbs generate significant revenues and reduce tax burdens for others. Vacant buildings do not this at the same rate.
  4. Buildings that are vacant long-term are negative symbols. Communities want to have thriving businesses, not empty buildings. The longer the vacancy stretches, the bigger the consequences.
  5. Communities can redevelop such properties but this requires money, proactive local officials, and partners.

If we could come back to Eagan in a decade or two, will these properties be redeveloped mixed-use properties, vacant sites, or office parks operating at a decent capacity?

How empty are American offices right now?

Posted on by

A headline of an analysis of office space and vacancies in the United States suggests “American offices are half-empty.” Is this true? Here is how the analysis starts:

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

From Dallas and Minneapolis to New York and Los Angeles, offices sit vacant or underused, showing the staying power of the work-from-home era. But cleardesks and quiet break rooms aren’t just a headache for bosses eager to gather teams in person.

Investors and regulators, on high alert for signs of trouble in the financial system following recent bank failures, are now homing in on the downturn in the $20 trillion US commercial real estate market.

After detailing the economic effects of this, particularly how banks might be affected, here is some evidence for the headline:

Office properties have been getting hammered the hardest. Hybrid work remains popular, affecting the rents many building owners can charge. Average occupancy of offices in the United States is still less than half March 2020 levels, according to data from security provider Kastle.

And then it is back to the possible fallout, including:

Trouble may build as the economy slows. Hill thinks US commercial property valuations could fall roughly 20% to 25% this year. For offices, declines could be even steeper, topping 30%.

The headline suggests half of offices are empty. The primary piece of evidence in the article says that average office occupancy “is still less than half March 2020 levels.” Does that mean average office occupancy was 100% in March 2020? Does this mean half of office buildings have no people in them? Even if the real figure about empty offices is 30% or 40%, this would be a big number with lots of ramifications.

An earlier article on the same site had a similar headline and evidence. From early March 2023, the headline: “Offices are more than 50% filled for the first time since the pandemic started.” The evidence:

Office occupancy across 10 major US cities crossed 50.4% of pre-pandemic levels for the first time since early 2020, according to security swipe tracker Kastle Systems. That marks the first time occupancy has crossed the 50% mark since March 2020, when many offices sent workers home because of Covid.

Again, the comparison is pre-COVID levels, not necessarily 50% of total possible occupancy. Again, this is a significant change that is a little different than claiming offices are more than 50% filled.

This all might be pedantic, but, if we should pay attention to offices, working from home, and the consequences of changes to commercial real estate, what are the actual figures regarding how much office space is occupied and/or leased?

Big box stores in Michigan can have their property taxes assessed on their value as an empty building

Posted on by

Having a vacant big box store in a community can be a big problem. But, what if the store if in business and generating revenue and it is being assessed for property tax purposes at a value closer to its value as an empty property? Such is the case in Michigan:

Photo by Craig Adderley on Pexels.com

The dark store theory was born, in part, out of the 2008 recession.

Big box stores closed. The massive buildings that housed them had few other obvious uses and, in some cases, restrictions on selling the buildings to competitors put in place by the companies themselves reduced the pool of potential buyers. They often sold for far less than they’d cost to build.

Michigan law allows assessors to determine the value of a property in three ways: based on replacement cost minus depreciation, based on the income a property generates and based on the sales of similar properties.

Retailers began to argue that sales of empty stores were the best indicator of what their properties were worth. The Michigan Tax Tribunal generally agreed…

Of the 110 cases brought before the tribunal by Walmart and its subsidiaries since 2018, 93 have resulted in lower taxable values, often millions of dollars lower. All but one was a negotiated settlement. Eleven of the 110 cases are ongoing.

Two factors may be at play here. Retailers and businesses want tax breaks. They want to pay fewer taxes and boost their profits. If communities are willing to offer tax breaks like this (or others), why not ask for them and utilize them?

On the other side, communities want to bring in businesses and jobs. These retailers still provide some work for local residents and they are still generating some tax revenue. Even if they do not pay in taxes what they might, would a community be willing for a big box store to move to a nearby community and the money go elsewhere? Some development or even bad development might be preferable to no development or an empty building.

The news story quoted above details how this may change in Michigan due to a court case. If these large corporations do have to pay more in property taxes, will they change their operations at all? And how might communities make use of the extra revenue to improve local lives?

Japan has a large supply of abandoned rural homes

Posted on by

Looking for affordable housing in the developed world? Japan has millions of homes available:

Photo by Eva Bronzini on Pexels.com

As Japan’s population shrinks and more properties go unclaimed, an emerging segment of buyers, feeling less tethered to overcrowded cities, is seeking out rural architecture in need of some love. The most recent government data, from the 2018 Housing and Land survey, reported about 8.5 million akiya across the country — roughly 14% of the country’s housing stock — but observers say there are many more today. The Nomura Research Institute puts the number at more than 11 million, and predicts that akiya could exceed 30% of all houses in Japan by 2033…

“Poorly maintained akiya can mar the scenery as well as endanger residents’ lives and property if they collapse,” said Kazuhiro Nagao, a city official in Sakata, along the west coast, where heavy snowfall can damage unattended structures. “We’re partly subsidizing demolitions, collecting neighborhood association reports on akiya, and trying to make owners aware of the problem by holding briefings.”

Although the akiya problem has not had a direct impact on sales in urban markets, where high-rises continue to go up, the potential hazards to communities posed by empty houses are growing along with their numbers, according to Akira Daido, chief consultant at the Nomura Research Institute’s Consulting Division…

Akiya are increasingly seen not just as a threat to suburban and rural markets but to the emotional health of the country, sparking family disputes over inherited properties. That, in turn, has led to a cottage industry of akiya consultants like Takamitsu Wada, CEO of Akiya Katsuyo, who acts as a counselor for squabbling relatives, often urging them to act before their properties become a lost cause.

This seems to come as the result of two significant patterns in Japan (and also present in much of the developing world):

  1. An urbanizing population. For decades, people have flocked to cities and metropolitan areas. What happens to older homes and properties? Some may become popular in resort areas but many are less desirable. Rural areas have emptied out.
  2. An aging population. What if populations age, requiring access to medical care and other needs, and a society needs fewer houses or different kinds of housing?

In one example from the story, an akiya is just 45 minutes from central Tokyo. In the United States, that would a suburban community that could be desirable to many.

What happens, ultimately, to all of these older homes? Homes do not have to last forever or house new residents.

What does it mean that India’s population will pass China’s population?

Posted on by

India will soon have more people than China. What does that mean?

Photo by Still Pixels on Pexels.com

The United Nations has said India’s population is projected to surpass China’s sometime this year. Many demographers estimate it could happen this month, if it hasn’t already. India’s population is expected to reach 1.429 billion by the end of the year, according to the U.N. China will fall to second place, with 1.426 billion people. Both dwarf the U.S. at a projected 340 million.

India’s rising population means it’s likely to keep its economy growing, buy more of the world’s goods and play a bigger role in global affairs, even as it grapples with poverty and a lack of jobs. 

China’s demographic headwinds will make it harder for the country to achieve its economic ambitions, or to supplant the U.S. as the world’s biggest economy, despite its rising wealth and military power…

India’s population is expected to keep growing for the next four decades, peaking at nearly 1.7 billion in 2063. China’s population, which declined last year for the first time since famines in the 1960s, according to government data, is projected to shrink rapidly. By the start of the next century, India’s population is expected to be double that of China’s.    

Numbers are just numbers; we give them significance. Is this just about large numbers and their ability to impress people? Here, two countries have nearly a billion and half people each. That is a lot of people and far ahead of the next most populous countries.

It could also be about being the country with the most people. This has been China for a while but will soon be India. Does having the most people provide an exalted status?

Or, is it about economic activity and growth. A large and growing population means economic opportunities internally and externally.

Yet, it could be more about growth than absolute numbers. Yes, it is important to be first in population but this is also about expected growth for India and a declining population in China. Not only will India be #1 in residents, it could be far ahead of China in population soon.

What this all adds up to is hard to say. India will be the most populous nation, China will be second. The population arrows will be headed in different directions. Does it mean a significant change in status and economic status? The number of people in each country may just play a role in this.