Category Archives: Sociology

One prediction that Dallas/Fort Worth-Houston-Austin will replace New York-Los Angeles-Chicago by 2100

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moveBuddha has a prediction about which three US cities will have the most people by the end of this century:

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  • The future belongs to Texas.  America’s three biggest cities by 2100 will be #1 Dallas, #2 Houston, and #3 Austin. Fast-growing San Antonio also ranks at #11.
  • The Sunbelt keeps rising. Phoenix is projected to be the 4th-biggest U.S. city by population in 2100. Other Sunbelt cities in the top 10 are #6 Atlanta, #9 Orlando, and #10 Miami.
  • NYC and L.A. are currently the top two biggest U.S. cities, but they’re projected to fall to #5 and #7, respectively, by the year 2100.

The methodology to arrive at this?

We wanted to know at moveBuddha what U.S. metropolitan areas would see the biggest population growth by 2100. We did this by using the compound annual population growth rate of the biggest U.S. metro areas (250,000 residents or more) between the 2010 and 2020 U.S. Census estimates and extrapolating it over 80 years.

This was an inexact science, and growth rates are bound to change. But it gave us a rough idea of which American cities may rise to the top by the dawning of the 22nd century. Climate change effects, migration patterns from climate change, and other unforeseen events could change things.

Two parts of this projection seem implausible to me. First, extrapolating the current rates of growth to last for more than seven decades. Growth rates will likely rise or fall across different metropolitan regions. It is hard to imagine many places will be able to keep up high rates of growth for that long. Second, the size of these regions. There is no US region currently near the predicted populations in 2100. Would this come from significant increases in density in the central areas or even more sprawling regions? It would be interesting to see where all those people would live and work.

Of course, at this point it is hard to bet against the ongoing population growth of the Sunbelt.

And what would this do to the status of New York City and Los Angeles? Chicago has some experience with this but could NYC handle this well?

How low prices might need to go for unwanted downtown office spaces

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For those looking to transform American downtowns, the price of space currently zoned and intended for office space is still high:

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Investors who paid high prices for skyscrapers before the pandemic are reluctant to sell at a discount. Michael Pestronk, chief executive of Philadelphia-based apartment developer and landlord Post Brothers, said that around nine out of 10 office buildings around the U.S. that the company looks at aren’t suitable for converting to apartments, mostly because prices are too high or they still have too many tenants.

How low would prices need to go before redevelopment is attractive? How much money might previous investors be willing to accept or lose to convert structures?

There might need to be a tipping point for this to happen. Imagine a major office skyscraper is converted. Or, a certain amount of space is vacant in a single downtown. Or, a major lender accepts a loss and moves on with new plans. Or, a city decides to move with some major money. Or, one place shows this is possible.

That said, it will not only be expensive to pursue such paths but it will take time and experimentation. There may not be a single answer as cities seek different ways to fill office spaces.

New design choices at Barnes & Noble stores

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Chain stores are predictable and often have a common aesthetic. Barnes & Noble is headed a different direction in some of its locations:

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Other stores will have a different look. The design of a new location in Brooklyn reveals the polished concrete floors from its past life as a Barneys New York. A Barnes & Noble recently opened in California with cerulean walls, and an experiment in robin’s egg blue is in the works for some East Coast locations…

The result has been an idiosyncratic approach to mass retail. Mr. Daunt, who describes himself as “an independent bookseller in background and ethos,” is pushing the chain to act more like the indie stores it was once notorious for displacing — and to embrace lighter, brighter interiors with modular shelves designed for maximum flexibility…

In its darkest hours, the stores began to resemble the discount aisle at Spencer’s. A layout known as “the racetrack prototype” — which Ms. Flanigan identified as “my least favorite design” — borrowed from big-box stores like Target, with cash registers by the door and impulse-purchase temptations around the perimeter. Only after wading through a sea of tchotchkes would customers encounter books…

The new look aims to encourage browsing, which Mr. Daunt believes improves customer satisfaction. “If you just want to buy a book, the guys in Seattle will sell you a book,” Mr. Daunt said. “The enjoyment and the social experience of that engagement with books in a bookstore? That’s our game.”…

Bookstores, in Mr. Daunt’s view, are fundamentally different from other retail businesses, partly because of the range and variability of the products. Under his leadership, local managers are given a free hand, meaning that the Upper West Side store may offer a shopping experience quite different from the one in Spanish Fort, Ala.

If the primary competition is not other retailers but rather an online store, this might make some sense. The hopefully pleasant idiosyncrasies of different locations provide an alternative to an app or website experience.

But, this goes against the ethos of a lot of American retail and restaurants. As consumers drive near and far across a big country, they often expect uniformity and predictability. Sociologist George Ritzer described the process as “McDonaldization.” We can point out instances when locations deviate from the expected.

By definition, can a chain retailer express itself this way? If this is successful, I suspect others might follow, even if they are not engaged in selling books.

SF mall’s fate a sign of “urban doom loop” or suffering from what faces many shopping malls?

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A review of the issues facing San Francisco includes a bit about the Westfield San Francisco Centre:

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Dennis Phillips had recently taken her staff to tour the Westfield San Francisco Centre. “We have to understand the possibilities of that building,” she explained. The mall loomed so large as a harbinger of San Francisco’s struggles that I decided to see the damage myself. When I was growing up in San Francisco, at the turn of the millennium, the opening of the Westfield mall had seemed like the capstone of the city’s rise. Now I expected a ruin – the remnant of a once triumphal age.

As I approached, I found the stretch of downtown around the mall lively and crowded. People in the local office garb of slacks and zip vests brushed past, thumbing their smartphones. In front of the Dawn Club, a storied jazz bar that Sheehy reopened this year, men in suits were playing a game that they called Doomloopin Bowling on a strip of AstroTurf. Inside the mall, which as of now has no closure date, I saw customers flowing from Bloomingdale’s. To my left, a Michael Kors salesperson chatted with a couple as, on my right, young men studied fancy watches in an I.W.C. Schaffhausen. The food court was noisy, and there were no free tables at Panda Express. The grimmest space was on the top floor: a Cinemark whose lease is up in the fall had gone dark early. “They’re closed,” a bored looking guard announced to no one.

In public declarations, Westfield – like Gump’s – laid the blame for its lack of business on the condition of San Francisco’s downtown. But in the past forty years the number of malls in the United States has declined by nearly three-quarters, and a tour of downtown San Francisco today, its streets packed, its bars busy, can seem an odd me-or-your-lying eyes experience.

The closing of retail shops in San Francisco was easy to see culminating in this mall when the mall operator recently handed back the property to the lender. A once thriving mall suffered from vacant properties. Its location was once a very busy part of the downtown between regular floods of downtown workers, residents, and tourists. I have been to this mall at least a few times and it was generally a lively spot where a cosmopolitan canopy might be possible.

But, as noted above, shopping malls everywhere are facing difficulties. Brick and mortar locations are suffering, even in the most vaunted locations. The outlook for shopping malls is bleak as many will not be needed in the future landscape. Numerous malls are trying to transition by adding housing and/or other entertainment options.

Like many places, urban or suburban, what the mall becomes might be more important than whether the mall survives. What becomes of potentially valuable land near an urban core that once generated property and sales tax revenue? What use could be good for residents and the city long-term? This may be harder to envision in urban downtowns where a lot of property might soon be available for new uses.

Trying to support community in an area of unincorporated suburbia

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An area in southeast DuPage County that experienced a mass shooting earlier this year is looking for ways to build on its existing community:

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Four months later, Carroll and others say the response to the mass shooting has only reinforced long-simmering feelings of neglect among the 3,000-plus residents clustered in apartment and condominium complexes in an unincorporated area on DuPage County’s southeastern edge…

In recent weeks, DuPage County Board members have pledged more than $1.5 million for infrastructure improvements and to bolster the efforts of nonprofit organizations already working in the community…

Williams eventually moved from the complex. But she started a nonprofit organization, Youth 4 Excellence Inc., that works with families in the community. Hers is one of a handful of nonprofits that have tried to fill in the service gaps in a neighborhood that Williams called “a desert,” its residents — many living at or below poverty — isolated by a lack of public transportation and afforded limited access to amenities enjoyed by their affluent neighbors…

At least part of that isolation is due to the area being unincorporated. Though Willowbrook and Hinsdale are found in the names of the neighborhood and some of its residential complexes, it has no affiliation with either town. Instead, it’s part of the county’s 3rd District, which covers portions of at least 10 communities and is represented by three county board members.

A few thoughts and questions about this given my knowledge and study of communities and DuPage County:

  1. Unincorporated areas can be under the oversight of DuPage County – it sounds like this is the case here. That means the County is responsible for local services, not a municipality.
  2. Why has this area remained unincorporated rather than being annexed into a nearby suburb? Suburban communities are often eager to expand their boundaries; why did this part of the county not end up as part of another community?
  3. Does it matter that this area primarily consists of apartments and condos rather than single-family homes? How different are day-to-day life and local services compared to other unincorporated areas in DuPage County that consist of more single-family homes?
  4. DuPage County Board members represent both actors in municipalities and in unincorporated areas. To which do they pay more attention?

In a suburban county with relatively little open land left to develop, unincorporated areas likely face unique challenges compared to the hundreds of thousands of residents located within communities.

Could all the Chicago region transportation agencies merge? Unlikely

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A new report from the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning includes a recommendation to bring all of the mass transit agencies together:

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CMAP suggests merging Metra, Pace and the CTA into one mega-agency, or giving more authority to the Regional Transportation Authority over budgeting, fares, planning and capital projects.

The process of setting up governance for either could result in turf wars between the agencies along with Chicago and the rest of the region…

But figuring out membership on a super-agency board “is a tough one,” he noted. “Put yourself in the shoes of the mayor of Chicago. Do you want to give up control of the CTA to a super agency he’s not going to control?”…

Villivalam acknowledged, “We’re going to have a robust conversation; it might be tough at times.”

“At the end of the day, though, we need to take a regional perspective. The average commuter is not interested in whether it’s CTA, Metra, Pace, or RTA, they’re interested in having a public transit option that gives them an opportunity to get from Point A to Point B.”

The last quote is instructive: a regional group could better address needs and budgets across a sprawling region with over 9 million residents and lots of transportation systems. If the overriding goal is to help people choose high quality mass transit, a centralized group could help.

But, as also noted above, this would cut across decades of practice within the Chicago region. Each agency has its own history, budget, and priorities. They do not necessarily get along with each other. Political leaders have connections to and oversight with different boards.

Even if the Illinois legislature decided to follow this recommendation, how long would it functionally take for an all-inclusive agency to operate effectively?

I will guess that this will not happen. Perhaps the different agencies and leaders will be encouraged to work together more closely. Perhaps they can partner more. But, putting them all together is a difficult task with fallout for many involved.

Recommendation that Chicago residents should use less water during heavy rain

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The Chicago region has water and flooding issues. One sign of this is an email I received two days ago during a rainy week and ahead of more rain:

I do not know how many people are on this mailing list or how many people would change their water use patterns based on an email. However, I can see the point: if capacity is reduced and the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago knows about it, why not ask?

At the same time, some might wonder why there is a need for this. Doesn’t the region have a modern marvel intended to provide relief from flooding? Haven’t these issues been addressed over the decades?

As the region continues to grow and experience more development, these water issues will likely grow. Pursuing different solutions could help as could changing usage patterns.

The grass cannot be much greener if the grass is already green, American society edition

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If the lives of some people in the United States are already pretty good, it is hard to improve on that:

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Low interest rates, high salaries and membership discounts scored before and during the pandemic often can’t be matched today, binding people in golden handcuffs. Many feel comfortable, but stuck…

In matters big and small, people feel they cannot improve on their current situations. They’re mentally or emotionally ready for a change but can’t bring themselves to walk away.

This is how it can affect housing:

Their findings suggest that people with 3% mortgages today could be about 30% to 40% less likely to move than they otherwise would be, says Lu Liu, an author of the paper and a finance professor at Penn’s Wharton School. 

When homeowners don’t move, that limits the number of houses that are bought and sold. And Liu found that those who locked in low mortgage rates are less likely to move in response to wage growth in nearby areas, potentially making the labor market less dynamic. 

This all seems related to a basic assumption in the American Dream: life will continue to get better and better. The next generation will have it better than the current one or previous ones. Progress will continue to improve lives and outcomes.

But, what if this does not happen? Does improvement always occur over time?

The American Dream does not allow much space for stagnation or decline. There can be blips, temporary setbacks like a Great Depression or a housing crisis in the late 2000s. Otherwise, housing values should keep going up. The stock market should keep going up. Job opportunities should continue to be there. Standards of living should improve as should technology.

Whether the American Dream has peaked or whether room for improvement is limited because so much improved over the last century or so is interesting to consider. To some degree, we may not know for sure until we can look back and see the broad patterns. But, there are likely plenty of people willing to dig into the data and/or make these arguments.

Gen Z headed South looking for cheaper and bigger houses?

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Sunbelt populations are growing. One reason is because Gen Z is moving to the South for housing:

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Traditionally, younger generations have flocked to cities to start their careers and enjoy the hustle and bustle of urban life. However, Gen Z is proving to be a little different, with more and more moving to the South in favor of large outdoor spaces, low cost of living and a slower pace of life…

The Southern region boasts more affordable housing and living space, which is becoming increasingly attractive to Gen Z as well as some Millennials and older adults who are fed up with cramped city life.

According to Storage Cafe, the average floor area of single-family homes sold in the South increased by 60 square feet between 2019 and 2022, meaning the average is now 2,608 square feet…

And since Gen Z is more likely to rent rather than own a home currently, it makes sense that more of the younger generation would be seeking out spaces where housing costs are cheaper.

I would be interested in seeing more numbers here. Are Gen Z movers doing so at similar rates as other Americans?

Is one of the side effects of all this movement a point where housing and opportunities in the South are no longer as attractive?

The final part of the article hints at the possible political ramifications of these moves. I would want to hear more about how younger adults might transform communities and day-to-day life in other ways. Is this a continuation of the American suburban dream with more liberal politics thrown on top?