Rockford as the top real estate market in the US

One source suggests affordable housing plus job opportunities means Rockford has a lively real estate market:

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ROCKFORD — The city is now home to the top real estate market in the country, according to a new ranking released Thursday by the Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com.

The housing market ranking evaluates the real estate market and economic health of the 200 most populous metro areas in the country. The Rockford metro area was the only one in Illinois to crack the Top 50. Peoria landed at 59.

“It’s a great validation of what we’re seeing locally in the market with our year-over-year price increases, hitting our record highs,” said Conor Brown, CEO of the NorthWest Illinois Alliance of Realtors. “We know we’re such an affordable market, but we have seen an influx of people from Chicagoland and elsewhere coming into the market being so impressed with how much they can buy, and they’re really helping drive the prices.”

The new report is a major turnaround from one released by the Wall Street Journal a decade ago, when Rockford was declared the underwater mortgage capital of America. At that time, about 32% of the metro area’s homes were valued at less than the money owed on the mortgage.

Now, the city is being praised for an affordable housing stock and growing health care, aerospace and logistics industries.

Several things strike me as interesting in this ranking and reaction:

  1. An important part of the story is that the city/real estate market was not doing well not too long ago. This is not just about things improving; it is also about coming back from challenges.
  2. Increasing housing prices is seen as a good sign. Do these rising prices also make it more difficult for some to find housing?
  3. Missing from this story is any mention of the population. Rockford’s population is roughly flat over the last two decades. Is Rockford growing? Or growing in certain areas (like particular sectors or neighborhoods or communities)?
  4. Proximity to Chicago appears to be a positive factor. Do these people commute to the Chicago region or need to be in the office infrequently? Is Rockford seeing an influx of remote workers?
  5. How long can such a streak continue? Rockford can have the hottest market at the moment but it could be surpassed by other places or the local market could cool off. What does the narrative become then?

Now we have the Home Buyer Index

NBC, with the help of experts, developed a new index to summarize the ease or difficulty of buying a home in many counties in the United States. It produces a number between 0 (easy to buy) and 100 (hard to buy) and consists of four factors:

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  • Cost: How much a home costs relative to incomes and inflation — as well as how related expenses, such as insurance costs, are changing. 
  • Competition: How many people are vying for a home — and how aggressive the demand is. This is measured through observations including the percentage of homes sold above list price and the number that went under contract within two weeks of being listed. 
  • Scarcity: The number of homes that are on the market — and how many more are expected to enter the market in the coming month.
  • Economic instability: Market volatility, unemployment and interest rates — reflecting the broader climate in which home shoppers are weighing their decisions. 

The value of an index is that it attempts to incorporate a lot of data into a single number. Given the current real estate market in many places, having this single number could help express what home buyers can expect or are experiencing.

At the same time, this seems like the product of a particular moment. Home buyers perceive a tighter market than they might like. This index confirms it. The index goes back to 2012 with the data available: it was quite a bit lower ten years ago in 2014 and it really ticked up in late 2021.

Two additional questions:

  1. How many potential home buyers would act differently based on this index? Will this encourage people to not try so hard to purchase a home?
  2. Does this score mean it is a great time to be a home seller? Is the home seller index roughly the inverse of the index for home buyers?

Naperville as “the second largest economic engine (in Illinois)”

The last paragraph of a story about NCTV in Naperville hints at the economic activity in the suburb:

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Spencer said she views additional city funding for NCTV17 as an investment into what the station does for the community.

“We think we’re more important and more relevant than ever to Naperville as the fourth largest city and the second largest economic engine (in Illinois),” she said. “We think we provide a really big service. … With a little support from our friends at the city, (we think) we can weather this storm and arrive at port bigger and better than ever.”

What features of Naperville would mark it as such a large economic engine? Its population puts it in the top four communities in Illinois, following Chicago, Aurora, and Joliet. But population alone does not tell the full story. Some more features of Naperville

Lots of human capital and economic resources among residents: “The region has a civilian labor force of 79,726 with a participation rate of 69.2%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the Naperville city, IL, 74.0% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 34.3% in the nation. The median household income in the Naperville city, IL is $127,648 and the median house value is $424,800.”

Nearly 80,000 jobs in the suburb.

Certain job sectors well represented: “The largest sector in the Naperville city, IL is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 12,989 workers. The next largest sectors in the region are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (12,897 workers) and Retail Trade (8,375). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (LQ = 2.22), Utilities (2.08), and Management of Companies and Enterprises (2.05).”

Lots of office space available: “The office market in Naperville, IL incorporates 10,451,396 square feet of office space across 56 buildings that are at least 25,000 square feet in size.”

-A vibrant downtown.

Lots of awards from different outlets.

Billions of dollars each year in retail sales.

-Multiple corporate headquarters in the city.

-Part of the I-88 corporate corridor, access to multiple major highways, and close to two major airports and Chicago.

As I put together this list, Naperville indeed sounds like an edge city.

In a state dominated by Chicago, it is noteworthy to be second in line as an economic engine. I wonder what other Illinois communities are trumpeting their economic prowess and how many of them are suburbs.

Leaving a bit of your self in a childhood suburban home

One writer contemplates her feelings regarding her suburban home in which she grew up:

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If home is “where the heart is” or “wherever I’m with you,” I should be fine with my mom moving anywhere—especially to a nearby apartment, as she plans to, where she’ll doubtless have a place for me to sleep whenever I want. Instead, any mention of a future sale prompts an ache akin to the homesickness I felt as a kid at summer camp—except that now I ache for my future self. I imagine her standing outside that suburban New Jersey house, pacing back and forth, insisting that some piece of her remains in this one edifice on a certain corner of a specific street, even though she hasn’t lived there for decades…

Going home can be a much more effective way to time travel. Our past isn’t just preserved in knickknacks and memorabilia; it lingers in the spaces we once occupied. When we talk about our experiences, we often focus, understandably, on the people who’ve shaped us, and we “treat the physical environment like a backdrop,” Lynne Manzo, a landscape-architecture professor at the University of Washington, told me. But setting can be its own character; it colors our day-to-day, and we endow it with agency and meaning. If social interactions and relationships are the bricks constructing our identities, our surroundings are the scaffolding.

Setting is also central to how we remember. Recalling events (as opposed to information) involves “episodic memory,” which is deeply tied to location. Many researchers, in fact, believe that episodic memory evolved to help us physically orient ourselves in the world. (One very sad study—partial title: “Implications for Strandings”—found that some sea lions with damage to the hippocampus, the hub of episodic memory, get lost and wander ashore.) When you’re in a given space, your brain tends to “pull up the relevant memories” that happened there—even ones that have long been dormant, Charan Ranganath, a neuroscientist and the author of Why We Remember: Unlocking Memory’s Power to Hold On to What Matters, told me. People remembering a specific moment can even demonstrate what Ranganath called a “reboot” of the brain-activity patterns they showed during the original event.

But without the physical space to visit, it can be hard to mentally transport yourself back. When the 19th-century French writer Stendhal wrote his memoir The Life of Henry Brulard, detailing a difficult and lonely childhood, he drew the places of his youth again and again, in an obsessive attempt to spur his memory. “Winding staircase—Large, cheerless courtyard—Magnificent inlaid chest-of-drawers surmounted by a clock,” he scrawled under a sketch, as if the incantation might apparate him to his grandfather’s imposing Grenoble townhouse. Yet his recollection remained, as he put it, like a fresco, solid for stretches and elsewhere crumbling apart.

I am interested here in the powerful connection to a suburban home. Little is said about this home that might differentiate it from other New Jersey suburban homes. There are millions of Americans who could have similar positive memories about their suburban homes.

At the same time, critics of suburbs argue these homes are not worth much. They are cookie-cutter. Tract homes. Poor quality. Big but empty of meaning and purpose.

We are physical beings whose memories and emotions are tied to particular places. It is easy in our current age to forget our embodied lives amid social media, travel, and ideas.

Since the majority of Americans live in suburbs, presumably many have at least some positive memories about their suburban homes. This could happen in McMansions, homes derided for multiple reasons, or split-levels.

The suburban homes that might look from the outside to be similar can also be settings where millions of people develop important memories in their life.

The amount of grass lawn in the US matches the size of this state

The United States has a lot of grass lawns. What does this add up to?

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Lawns represent one of the largest, fastest growing landscapes in the U.S. These ecosystems — water-hungry, energy-intensive monocultures — extend far beyond the picket fence, including highway medians, cul-de-sacs, corporate office parks. De facto lawns also exist under solar arrays, on soccer fields, and in city parks. In the U.S., it’s a landmass that, by some estimates, covers an area about the size of Iowa.

I am not sure if this sounds like an impressive comparison or not. How big is Iowa? It is the twenty-sixth largest state by land area. That’s a good amount of space. Yet Iowa accounts for roughly 1.5% of the land area in the United States so lawns account for a small percentage of the total area.

Perhaps here is a way to put this into perspective: the United States idealizes single-family homes and the lawns around them. Those lawns get a lot of attention in terms of time and resources (and natural opportunities lost). But those lawns do not take up a huge percentage of space, even if their concentration in certain areas can cause issues.

Suburban downtown apartments for empty nesters and young professionals

When suburbs build apartments or condos in their downtowns, who do they envision living there? A quote from suburban leader provides a hint as I have seen similar sentiments across suburban downtowns:

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Suess said there’s a high demand for apartment space in the downtown areas and the suburbs in particular.

“The attraction of this I think is very much towards empty nesters,” Suess said. “I think it’s towards young professionals starting out and, again, folks who want to be in the downtown area.”

That is a very specific set of people. Presumably, these are people with the resources available to live in nicer apartments near a lot of suburban amenities.

At the same time, highlighting these groups also reinforces the importance of single-family homes in suburban communities. Empty nesters are ones who might have owned a home for years and raised kids there but now are looking for a change from maintaining a home. Young professionals are just starting out and perhaps they do not yet have the resources to be homeowners for the first time.

Often, suburbanites do not like apartments and/or the people who might live there. But the right apartments in a downtown setting can attract certain residents – the ones named above – and contribute to a denser, walkable, thriving downtown.

More sprawl = more storm damage

With more sprawling development in the United States comes more damage from storms:

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But a more significant influence on the rising storm damage trend has little to do with the weather: Growth and development patterns mean there are many more homes and businesses in the way of tornadoes, hail and damaging winds than there were decades ago…

The trend is a product of growing populations in regions where severe storm impacts are also increasing, said Adam Smith, a NOAA economist and scientist who tracks the events.

Researchers call it the expanding bull’s eye effect — a larger target for storms and tornadoes makes it easier for them to inflict damage.

For example, in outlying parts of a city like Wichita, a tornado that might have affected 20 homes several decades ago could now damage 2,000 homes in the same footprint, said Walker Ashley, an atmospheric scientist at Northern Illinois University.

The United States has pursued sprawl for decades now. Metropolitan regions have expanded as Americans, for multiple reasons, have loved suburban growth plus the status and profits they can bring.

A hypothetical using a notorious Chicago area storm could illustrate this. In August 1990, an F5 tornado touched down in Plainfield, Illinois. The tornado killed 29, injured hundreds, and destroyed numerous buildings. At the time, Plainfield was a small community of 4,557 residents on the edge of the Chicago region. How much damage might a similar storm following a similar course cause today? The suburb had nearly 45,000 residents in the 2020 Census and development in the region has moved further out past Plainfield. Some local residents said the 1990 tornado helped show the community’s spirit and contributed to later growth.

Given the propensity toward sprawl in the United States, would any developer or local leader or potential suburban resident say no to more sprawl to avoid storm damage?

Naperville continues to rank highly, even for gardening

Recent rankings of cities or communities by different sources continue to include Naperville:

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Since April, Naperville has made the grade in 2024 for being among the Top 100 Best Places to Live in the U.S. as determined by the publication “Livability; Safest Cities in America,” per the home security review site Safewise; Top Destinations for a “White Picket Fence” Lifestyle, from DatingNews.com; and Best Cities for Naked Gardening, from online platform LawnStarter…

Naperville earned a LivScore of 862 out of 1,000. There were only a handful of cities that received a higher score than Naperville on the 2024 ranking. Those were Carmel and Fishers in Indiana, Cary in North Carolina and Columbia in Maryland…

Last month, the site released its 10th annual safest cities report and placed Naperville in the No. 12 spot…

Naperville came in at No. 30. Several other Illinois cities also proved to be up to the bare snuff, with Chicago ranking No.11, followed by Evanston at No. 13, Elgin at No. 17, Schaumburg at No. 23 and Arlington Heights at No. 25.

Add these to the March 2024 ranking as Niche’s best place to live:

On Tuesday, the site released its 2024 lists for Best Places to Live in America. And for the first time ever, Naperville came out on top of the some 230 cities evaluated in this year’s rankings.

It was also named the No. 1 U.S. city to raise a family and the city with the best public schools.

Three things strike me about these rankings and sources:

  1. Naperville is at the top of some lists and not others. There are thousands of communities in the United States.
  2. There is a proliferation of rankings of communities. Why? I would guess it is due to the easier access to data about communities plus the rankings drive clicks and impressions.
  3. With the growing number of rankings, will communities list all of them? Will Naperville claim all three of these?

In other words, we are a long ways from Naperville ranking as the #2 place to live according to Money in 2006.

Waiting for the realtor to advertise that they get the buyer the best price

I recently received a glossy mailing from a real estate agent describing their recent efforts on behalf of a property owner. A few excerpts from the advertisement:

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***Multiple Offers in 24 hours***

My strategic marketing plan generated over 40 groups of potential buyers, igniting considerable excitement from the moment the property hit the market. By Saturday, we had received multiple offers, ultimately securing a contract that surpassed my client’s wildest expectations!

This sounds good for a homeowner looking to sell. They had multiple offers to consider. They got more money that they might have. This agent helped them move to the next stage with more money.

I do not recall getting an advertisement for a realtor that goes the other direction: I found the home buyer a great deal. I negotiated the price down. I helped point out features of the property that led to price reductions. I got the buyer a great deal.

There certainly is a market for getting sellers the most money they can. Americans value their homes for the money they can provide upon sale. They want to see a big jump in the value compared to the price at which they purchased the home.

Buyers also want good financial deals. If you wanted had a tight budget or wanted to buy investment properties, wouldn’t buyers rather have someone who keeps the price lower? I assume there are realtors who do this well and want to find clients.

The new physical symbols of prestige in the modern corporate office

With open office spaces and more people working from home, what physical signs denote someone’s higher status level at the office? Here are a few markers:

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Without the corner office, status is conveyed in new ways. No matter the setup, “human beings will still find a way of creating hierarchy,” Lenny Beaudoin, CBRE’s global head of workplace design, explained. Bosses might have more computer monitors, bigger desks, or even just a permanent spot rather than a rotating one, Matthew Davis, a business professor at Leeds University Business School, told me. Power also manifests intangibly—for instance, only a select few might be able to not check Slack or come and go from the office without explanation. It’s the same benefit of having a far-flung corner office, re-created digitally: You know you’re important if you can escape surveillance.

And even if they’re not in the corner, a lot of executives do still have offices. Those have largely slimmed down, but many are connected to conference rooms or other collaborative spaces, such as broadcast rooms in finance firms, recording studios at media companies, and labs in the life sciences. Many higher-ups essentially seize these for themselves whenever they come in, Pogue, at Gensler, told me. From there, they can shape any collaboration that takes place, ensuring it plays out in their space and under their supervision. Many modern companies “have as many conference rooms as there are executives,” Sargent said, and it’s become a “dirty little secret” that conference rooms are the new corner offices.

In other words, how space is utilized and physical possessions workers have continue to signal status. The new forms seem to cover a few areas:

  1. Who can claim space. There may be fewer and/or smaller offices but people with status can claim spaces.
  2. Who needs to be in space (working at a centralized office) or seen in space (surveilled by eyes or on devices). Does this also include who can work remotely and who can not?
  3. Who has certain devices or belongings? Higher status can translate into different and better tools for doing work or furnishing a space.

The American office continues to change as social and economic conditions change. And is jockeying for status always going to present in some form, as one quote above suggests? It will be interesting to see how this evolves, particularly if there are ongoing efforts to address inequalities.