SF mall’s fate a sign of “urban doom loop” or suffering from what faces many shopping malls?

A review of the issues facing San Francisco includes a bit about the Westfield San Francisco Centre:

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Dennis Phillips had recently taken her staff to tour the Westfield San Francisco Centre. “We have to understand the possibilities of that building,” she explained. The mall loomed so large as a harbinger of San Francisco’s struggles that I decided to see the damage myself. When I was growing up in San Francisco, at the turn of the millennium, the opening of the Westfield mall had seemed like the capstone of the city’s rise. Now I expected a ruin – the remnant of a once triumphal age.

As I approached, I found the stretch of downtown around the mall lively and crowded. People in the local office garb of slacks and zip vests brushed past, thumbing their smartphones. In front of the Dawn Club, a storied jazz bar that Sheehy reopened this year, men in suits were playing a game that they called Doomloopin Bowling on a strip of AstroTurf. Inside the mall, which as of now has no closure date, I saw customers flowing from Bloomingdale’s. To my left, a Michael Kors salesperson chatted with a couple as, on my right, young men studied fancy watches in an I.W.C. Schaffhausen. The food court was noisy, and there were no free tables at Panda Express. The grimmest space was on the top floor: a Cinemark whose lease is up in the fall had gone dark early. “They’re closed,” a bored looking guard announced to no one.

In public declarations, Westfield – like Gump’s – laid the blame for its lack of business on the condition of San Francisco’s downtown. But in the past forty years the number of malls in the United States has declined by nearly three-quarters, and a tour of downtown San Francisco today, its streets packed, its bars busy, can seem an odd me-or-your-lying eyes experience.

The closing of retail shops in San Francisco was easy to see culminating in this mall when the mall operator recently handed back the property to the lender. A once thriving mall suffered from vacant properties. Its location was once a very busy part of the downtown between regular floods of downtown workers, residents, and tourists. I have been to this mall at least a few times and it was generally a lively spot where a cosmopolitan canopy might be possible.

But, as noted above, shopping malls everywhere are facing difficulties. Brick and mortar locations are suffering, even in the most vaunted locations. The outlook for shopping malls is bleak as many will not be needed in the future landscape. Numerous malls are trying to transition by adding housing and/or other entertainment options.

Like many places, urban or suburban, what the mall becomes might be more important than whether the mall survives. What becomes of potentially valuable land near an urban core that once generated property and sales tax revenue? What use could be good for residents and the city long-term? This may be harder to envision in urban downtowns where a lot of property might soon be available for new uses.

Trying to support community in an area of unincorporated suburbia

An area in southeast DuPage County that experienced a mass shooting earlier this year is looking for ways to build on its existing community:

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Four months later, Carroll and others say the response to the mass shooting has only reinforced long-simmering feelings of neglect among the 3,000-plus residents clustered in apartment and condominium complexes in an unincorporated area on DuPage County’s southeastern edge…

In recent weeks, DuPage County Board members have pledged more than $1.5 million for infrastructure improvements and to bolster the efforts of nonprofit organizations already working in the community…

Williams eventually moved from the complex. But she started a nonprofit organization, Youth 4 Excellence Inc., that works with families in the community. Hers is one of a handful of nonprofits that have tried to fill in the service gaps in a neighborhood that Williams called “a desert,” its residents — many living at or below poverty — isolated by a lack of public transportation and afforded limited access to amenities enjoyed by their affluent neighbors…

At least part of that isolation is due to the area being unincorporated. Though Willowbrook and Hinsdale are found in the names of the neighborhood and some of its residential complexes, it has no affiliation with either town. Instead, it’s part of the county’s 3rd District, which covers portions of at least 10 communities and is represented by three county board members.

A few thoughts and questions about this given my knowledge and study of communities and DuPage County:

  1. Unincorporated areas can be under the oversight of DuPage County – it sounds like this is the case here. That means the County is responsible for local services, not a municipality.
  2. Why has this area remained unincorporated rather than being annexed into a nearby suburb? Suburban communities are often eager to expand their boundaries; why did this part of the county not end up as part of another community?
  3. Does it matter that this area primarily consists of apartments and condos rather than single-family homes? How different are day-to-day life and local services compared to other unincorporated areas in DuPage County that consist of more single-family homes?
  4. DuPage County Board members represent both actors in municipalities and in unincorporated areas. To which do they pay more attention?

In a suburban county with relatively little open land left to develop, unincorporated areas likely face unique challenges compared to the hundreds of thousands of residents located within communities.

Could all the Chicago region transportation agencies merge? Unlikely

A new report from the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning includes a recommendation to bring all of the mass transit agencies together:

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CMAP suggests merging Metra, Pace and the CTA into one mega-agency, or giving more authority to the Regional Transportation Authority over budgeting, fares, planning and capital projects.

The process of setting up governance for either could result in turf wars between the agencies along with Chicago and the rest of the region…

But figuring out membership on a super-agency board “is a tough one,” he noted. “Put yourself in the shoes of the mayor of Chicago. Do you want to give up control of the CTA to a super agency he’s not going to control?”…

Villivalam acknowledged, “We’re going to have a robust conversation; it might be tough at times.”

“At the end of the day, though, we need to take a regional perspective. The average commuter is not interested in whether it’s CTA, Metra, Pace, or RTA, they’re interested in having a public transit option that gives them an opportunity to get from Point A to Point B.”

The last quote is instructive: a regional group could better address needs and budgets across a sprawling region with over 9 million residents and lots of transportation systems. If the overriding goal is to help people choose high quality mass transit, a centralized group could help.

But, as also noted above, this would cut across decades of practice within the Chicago region. Each agency has its own history, budget, and priorities. They do not necessarily get along with each other. Political leaders have connections to and oversight with different boards.

Even if the Illinois legislature decided to follow this recommendation, how long would it functionally take for an all-inclusive agency to operate effectively?

I will guess that this will not happen. Perhaps the different agencies and leaders will be encouraged to work together more closely. Perhaps they can partner more. But, putting them all together is a difficult task with fallout for many involved.

Recommendation that Chicago residents should use less water during heavy rain

The Chicago region has water and flooding issues. One sign of this is an email I received two days ago during a rainy week and ahead of more rain:

I do not know how many people are on this mailing list or how many people would change their water use patterns based on an email. However, I can see the point: if capacity is reduced and the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago knows about it, why not ask?

At the same time, some might wonder why there is a need for this. Doesn’t the region have a modern marvel intended to provide relief from flooding? Haven’t these issues been addressed over the decades?

As the region continues to grow and experience more development, these water issues will likely grow. Pursuing different solutions could help as could changing usage patterns.

The grass cannot be much greener if the grass is already green, American society edition

If the lives of some people in the United States are already pretty good, it is hard to improve on that:

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Low interest rates, high salaries and membership discounts scored before and during the pandemic often can’t be matched today, binding people in golden handcuffs. Many feel comfortable, but stuck…

In matters big and small, people feel they cannot improve on their current situations. They’re mentally or emotionally ready for a change but can’t bring themselves to walk away.

This is how it can affect housing:

Their findings suggest that people with 3% mortgages today could be about 30% to 40% less likely to move than they otherwise would be, says Lu Liu, an author of the paper and a finance professor at Penn’s Wharton School. 

When homeowners don’t move, that limits the number of houses that are bought and sold. And Liu found that those who locked in low mortgage rates are less likely to move in response to wage growth in nearby areas, potentially making the labor market less dynamic. 

This all seems related to a basic assumption in the American Dream: life will continue to get better and better. The next generation will have it better than the current one or previous ones. Progress will continue to improve lives and outcomes.

But, what if this does not happen? Does improvement always occur over time?

The American Dream does not allow much space for stagnation or decline. There can be blips, temporary setbacks like a Great Depression or a housing crisis in the late 2000s. Otherwise, housing values should keep going up. The stock market should keep going up. Job opportunities should continue to be there. Standards of living should improve as should technology.

Whether the American Dream has peaked or whether room for improvement is limited because so much improved over the last century or so is interesting to consider. To some degree, we may not know for sure until we can look back and see the broad patterns. But, there are likely plenty of people willing to dig into the data and/or make these arguments.

Gen Z headed South looking for cheaper and bigger houses?

Sunbelt populations are growing. One reason is because Gen Z is moving to the South for housing:

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Traditionally, younger generations have flocked to cities to start their careers and enjoy the hustle and bustle of urban life. However, Gen Z is proving to be a little different, with more and more moving to the South in favor of large outdoor spaces, low cost of living and a slower pace of life…

The Southern region boasts more affordable housing and living space, which is becoming increasingly attractive to Gen Z as well as some Millennials and older adults who are fed up with cramped city life.

According to Storage Cafe, the average floor area of single-family homes sold in the South increased by 60 square feet between 2019 and 2022, meaning the average is now 2,608 square feet…

And since Gen Z is more likely to rent rather than own a home currently, it makes sense that more of the younger generation would be seeking out spaces where housing costs are cheaper.

I would be interested in seeing more numbers here. Are Gen Z movers doing so at similar rates as other Americans?

Is one of the side effects of all this movement a point where housing and opportunities in the South are no longer as attractive?

The final part of the article hints at the possible political ramifications of these moves. I would want to hear more about how younger adults might transform communities and day-to-day life in other ways. Is this a continuation of the American suburban dream with more liberal politics thrown on top?

The possibility that downsizing housing may now cost more

Moving to smaller housing units may not be cheaper at this point in time:

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The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has soared to 7.49 percent, according to latest data from lender Freddie Mac, while many homeowners are locked into much cheaper 2 or 3 percent deals on their current homes. 

Meanwhile the number of smaller houses for sale has diminished in recent years, according to listing website Realtor.com – pushing up the price of the limited inventory on the market.

The number of properties for sale that measure 750 to 1,750 square feet – the size range people who are downsizing tend to purchase – has dropped by more than 50 percent since 2016, according to Realtor.com…

Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, said: ‘Home prices for smaller homes fell 0.4 percent year-over-year in September, but remained more than 50 percent higher than pre-pandemic.

On one hand, this is about a particular moment where demand is high for small houses, few are available, and selling and buying means acquiring a higher interest rate.

But, there are also larger forces at work contributing to this moment. The United States has the largest houses in the world. This contributes to the lack of smaller homes for sale; fewer small units have been constructed in recent decades. There are also a lot of older Americans who have larger homes and may not want to keep them as they age. Are there enough units to accommodate their changing housing needs and/or enough buyers who want the homes they previously owned?

In many ways, the housing stock in the United States does not change quickly. Builders, developers, municipalities, buyers, and others interested actors need time to assess conditions and change course. Coordinated planning across different interested actors could help as housing conditions and needs change in the coming years.

Naperville now top trick-or-treating community in the United States

Naperville has accumulated a number of high rankings over the years and now it can claim to be the best place to trick-or-treat in 2023:

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For innocuous thrills and chills, the city is No. 1, according to a recently released study ranking the top safest U.S. cities to go trick-or-treating. The list, compiled by product research company Chamber of Commerce, considers factors like crime, pedestrian deaths and law enforcement presence to determine where a worry-free Halloween is most likely to happen.

Naperville came in first out of more than 300 places evaluated across the country. That’s a step up from even last year, when the city ranked No. 4 on the same tally heading into Halloween 2022…

For Naperville, the company found the city “retains the charm and security of a tight-knit community” with few registered sex offenders, an “excellent record of property crime” and relatively few violent crimes reported across the whole city over the past year.

No word on the quality of candy available among the city’s households and businesses? There has to be some way to get at the experiences of people trick or treating in the community.

This adds to earlier rankings that had Naperville as a best place to live, a good place for families, and high level of wealth within the region.

NJ suburb home to the second largest Hindu temple in the world

Here is a sign of increasing diversity in the increasingly complex American suburbs: the world’s second largest Hindu temple just opened in suburban New Jersey:

The official inauguration for BAPS Akshardham, the massive 87,975 square-foot, 191-feet tall temple in Robbinsville, New Jersey, is scheduled for Sunday…

Spanning 185 acres, the grand temple is dedicated to Bhagwan Swaminarayan, a revered Hindu spiritual leader from the 19th century. 

The temple is made of stoned of Marble, granite, and limestones – sourced from various places in Europe and shipped to India, where artisans carved intricately.  

Stone pieces were then shipped to the U.S. and assembled by volunteers from all over the world under guidance of artisans from India…

The New York tri-state area is known for its large Hindu American population and community of Hindu devotees.

According to Wikipedia, this suburban location is part of the New York City region but it also right next to the Philadelphia region:

Robbinsville Township is a township in Mercer County, in the U.S. state of New Jersey. Located at the cross-roads between the Delaware Valley region to the southwest and the Raritan Valley region to the northeast, the township is considered part of the New York Metropolitan area as defined by the United States Census Bureau,[21] but directly borders the Philadelphia metropolitan area and is part of the Federal Communications Commission‘s Philadelphia Designated Market Area.[22]

Recent research helps explain the increasing amount of religious diversity within metropolitan regions. For example, Religion & Community in the New Urban America details this in the Chicago region and I detail patterns in debates about zoning and land throughout the New York region and involving multiple religious traditions.

Yet, I suspect such a building would surprise many who do not think of suburbs in the United States this way. With new populations in the suburbs and new religious groups, many suburban communities have changed in recent decades. Suburbs do not only consist of white bedroom communities; suburbs are more racially, ethnically, and religiously diverse.

Trying to maintain hope in the pep band with a HS football team that wins 4 games over 4 years

I recently saw the football team at the high school I attended has a chance to make the playoffs for the first time in over two decades. This brought back memories…of lots of football losses.

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Even though I like football, I would not have been at any of these games unless I had to be. And I saw many of the games in the 4-32 record over four seasons because I was in the pep band. Usually playing alto saxophone (and one season on the sidelines playing keyboards), I was at every home game and a few of the away games. I remember some of the halftime scores where the other team had thirty points or more, we had none, and we had a halftime show to do.

What happens to the pep band amid these results? We did not pay much attention to the football action. We played our parts loudly. The crowds at football games – and those who might hear us – were limited. We did our thing and did not think much about football.

Since I also had some pep band experience in college, I can compare and safely say that it was more enjoyable to play upbeat music when your team could regularly win. Someone has to lose the game and those teams have bands, cheerleaders, and fans as well. Trying to enjoy the music and band experience is harder when it occurs during loss after loss.

Put this together with my Cubs and Bears fandom and I am used to lost games and seasons. I wish teams who tend not to have success over time do at least occasionally have times of winning. Even just a year or a few games of success can help sustain enthusiasm and hope.